9-13-24 How to Create a Retirement Blueprint
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Ratliff, but first a review of the markets: It's all about the Fed, and the grate debate is about rate. How much will they cut, and how many times? Watch for elevated volatility heading into the election; a divided-congress yields the best environment for markets. Who will have the best policies for the economy? What will your retirement look like? Commonalities vs net worth differences among peers; the need to set your own parameters. The importance of having paid-off debt. Components of a Retirement Blueprint: Needs, Wants, Wishes. "The New Retirement Mentality," by Mitch Anthony; dealing...
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9-12-24 Did Inflation Change the Fed's Outlook?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
As we went to air this morning, Space-X astronauts are "space-walking," testing new spacesuits; is Elon Musk the real-live equivalent of Tony Stark? CPI prints cooler--but core CPI was hotter than expected. MEanwhile the NFIB Survey (showing conservative bent) shows increases in confidence wiped out as Harris capmaigns; policy matters. Markets Big Reversal on Nvidia commentary about AI chip demand; the news boosted markets to a 2.5% gain. CPI is a hot mess: Inflation is different for everyone; the important question is how CPI will affect markets. Lance and Michael discuss how CPI is...
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9-12-24 Markets Test Resistance
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets had a big reversal day Wednesday: Core CPI was hotter than expected, and markets sold off about 1.5%. And at about the time markets were kissing the 100-DNA, Nvidia's CEO told a Goldman conference his company cannot keep up with AI chips demand. The Mag-7 came roaring back to drive markets up 1%, resulting in a 2.5% gain from the low. Markets are now testing resistance at the 20-DMA, and if successful, will rocket upward to new, all-time highs. Remain cautious for now and manage risk. Technically, the market is improving. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance...
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9-11-24 What's Really Behind Stock Market Volatility
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Today marks the 23rd anniversary of the World Trade Center attacks; it's Inflation Day and post-Debate day. Market volatility tends to increase prior to Presidential elections; why policy matters. CPI is expected to show a .2% increase (it's ALWAYS expected at .2%!) Oil prices are a function of supply & demand. CPI will most impact markets today, and factor into the Fed's rate decision next week. Volatility is the big market driver. What inflation is telling us about the economy; why falling inflation is not good for earnings. How companies are cutting wages (without cutting wages); Danny...
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9-11-24 CPI: Will or Won't the Fed Cut Rates?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
CPI will have an impact on the markets, as it feeds into the answer to the question, 'Will or won't the Fed cut rates this month?' Markets on Tuesday rallied right up to the 50-DMA; futures are subdued this morning, suggesting an initial test of resistance right at the 50-DMA. If that fails, there will be more pressure to the downside. Volatility is the big driver of the markets; there has been a little pickup in volatility during this most recent correction, but not to a great degree; the VIX is currently trading at around 19. The real challenge is positioning ahead of the Fed's rate...
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9-9-24 Five Actions You Can Take to Minimize Risk
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting and rate drop predictions; 2-yr Treasury yields are reflective of rate expectations. Forward earnings revisions continue to ratchet downward; markets must reprice on expectations, impacting performance. Monday's market rally was a disappointment; MACD sell signal is still in place. There are still barriers and resistance in the way of markets moving higher. This is not a good time to buy bonds. Lance and Jon look at what happens to stocks when a company is added to the S&P 500; why you should never track to an index: They're not reality. Wall...
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9-10-24 Markets' Rally Disappoints
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets generated a rather disappointing rally on Monday, giving up about half of its gains by the end of the day. The good news: Markets closed positive, bounced off the 100-DMA, and were over-sold on a relative strength basis. That initial bounce off support indicated markets are clearly not out of the woods yet, still on a sell signal, indicating weaker prices are still ahead. This will suppress any positive action until the sell signal can be worked off. Markets initially failed at resistance at the 50-DMA. If markets cannot hold support at the 100-DMA, the next level downward will...
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9-9-24 A Rough Start to September
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are having a rough start for September; Will the be a correction before the election? Lance examines the buyer/seller dynamic. Markets will probably bound this week. Look for a moderate rally, which will provide opportunity to trim portfolio risk. September/October stock market volatility is expected, with markets de-risking going into the election. Will there be an economic slowdown in September? Lance answers a question from YouTube chat," Who receives the difference in profits/losses when a company sells stock? Why stock buybacks are a scam; a dividend is a return of value to stock...
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-9-24 Will Markets Bounce this Week?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets will likely bounce this week. We've had declining momentum which triggered a sell signal, which is still in place. The upside for any rally will be limited, but when it occurs, use that opportunity to trim risk from portfolios. A clibe back up to the 50-DMA would be an excellent exit point, if you're needing to weed your porfolio garden. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast:...
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9-6-24 How to Plan for Trump Tax Cut Expiration
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will last month's Jobs and JOLTS reports show "normalization" of employment numbers to pre-Covid counts? What will the Fed response be, and what will that imply about the economy? Richard & Danny further explore the "sunsetting" of tax rate cuts initiated by the Trump administration, and who might be affected: Most likely, everyone will see an average 3% increase, across the board. A real look at who pays their "fair share" and more, and who doesn't. SEG-1: Jobs Numbers & JOLTS Report: Back to Pre-Covid Normalization? SEG-2: Sunsetting Tax Cuts: Who Will Be Affected? SEG-3:...
info_outlineLaying the groundwork for Fed rate cuts: Will they or won't they in September, and by how much? 80% of S&P companies have reported; stock buy back windows are back open for business; Q-2 earnings summary: Not great, not terrible. Is consumer spending slowing (and will earnings estimates fall)? Last week's market volatility: Still in the process of correction. Sell-off was recovered by Friday. After a muted open today, use any rally to reduce risk and raise cash. Lance jumps into the unpredictability of the market and challenges common assumptions. Discover why what you think you know might not be true: The importance of questioning market assumptions; the unpredictability of market behavior; why the market has already priced in expected events; the real-time nature of markets; common misconceptions about market crashes. What is happening as hedge funds de-gross and re-gross their holdings; why they have to invest in mega-cap companies. What are markets' inflation expectations? High volatility companies are hard to trade; is an 8% market return reasonable?
SEG-1: Use the Rally
SEG-2: What Caused the Crash
SEG-3: Is This the Death of AI?
SEG-4: Inflation Expectations: CPI, Retail Sales Previews
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N69vpdabuoU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Market Crash – Is It Over?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Prepare to Retest & Rally " is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHZrcyost8I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "What Kind of Inheritance Will You Leave Behind?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Mo4nvubJ_4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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