1-8-25 Market Reversal: Implications Now
The Real Investment Show Podcast
With Friday's December Employment Report waiting in the wings, it's fair to ask what happened to the December JOLTS Report. Investors are questioning whether we'll see continued growth from December. What does Q4 GDP at 2.7% really mean? Understanding the data and reading the January Barometer (so far). Lance shares his screen in commenting on sector rotations. Dan Niles' predciton of a 20% correction this year: Lance's reality check. Crash vs correction. Lance discusses the importance of an investing process: Rules to offset emotional bias. Fundamentals matter over the long term. SEG-1:...
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1-8-25 Is the January Barometer Broken?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Today is the 5th Trading Day of January, and as go the first five days of the year, so goes the month of January, and so goes the rest of the year...according to the January Barometer. We are in the middle of the January Barometer: If markets close higher today, we will have successfully created a positive first-five-days-of-the-year. But just barely. Note: We failed the Santa Claus Rally, we are threatening to close lower today (Dow Futures are down during this recording), and today's result will trigger the second leg of the January Barometer. HOWEVER: In 2024, we had a negative First Five...
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1-7-25 Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Real Investment Show Podcast
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn discuss five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025, plus client questions and viewers' emails. Economic data coming out this week for last month will be revised by March; what's the effect of less Government...
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1-7-25 Complacency Risk is On the Rise
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets started the week with a strong open, rallying above the 20- and 50-DMA, but faded off during the day, could not hold the 20-DMA, and settled above the 50-DMA. MACD Momentum is starting to turn positive. Markets appear to be struggling still, with interest rates weighing on valuations, putting a lid on short term markets. Oversold conditions are beginning to resolve, and that's limiting the fuel that might be used in a rally. Volatility has been collapsing, and complacency about a correction is on the rise. That's potentially a liability to keep markets from moving higher in the short...
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1-6-25 Santa Was a No-show
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We're baaack from our Winter Break, and it seemed as if Santa arrived on Christmas Eve, pushing the markets back above the important 50-DMA. However, by the end of the year, it seemed investors were naughty this year and received a “lump of coal,“ with markets selling off back toward recent lows. Despite Friday’s impressive reflexive rally, the market fell about 0.5% short of rallying enough to save the “Santa Rally.” What does this mean for markets this year? Higher than average returns aren't normal; it's not often to get back-to-back 20% earnings years (charts). Lance discusses...
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1-6-25 Investor Watchword: Curb Your Expectations
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Santa did not visit Broad & Wall over the holidays, which was a bit of a disappointment. Markets did have a nice enough rally on Friday, but it was about a half percent shy of achieving "Santa Claus Rally" status. What does that mean for the year? Typically, three elements: A Santa Clause Rally, the first five days of January, and the full month of January; these are predictors of performance for the rest of the year. But these indicators aren't always correct. Our watchwords for 2025: Curb your expectations. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by...
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RIS 1-3-25 FRIDAY Best of Show
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Heads-up: We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. Rich & Danny's final live show of the year starts with coverage of Tariffs, inflation vs deflation, and Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Head. Being cautiously optimistic: We've been living in a government-driven economy: Markets aren't red or blue; they're green. How estate planning may evolved during the Trump presidency; will the SALT deduction...
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RIS 1-2-25 THURSDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-8
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Heads-up: We're still on vacation until Monday (1/6/25); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect, and whether...
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1-1-25 WEDNESDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-7
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/8), Wednesday (12/11), Tuesday (12/17), and Wednesday (12/18): More commentary on those who would think they can beat the market, and what's in store if the show goes straight to YouTube (no filter). Old maxims about investing no longer hold true with the velocity of information and distortion of the markets. Why does no one want Value Stocks anymore? Lance and Danny recall reading encyclopedias as youths. The thing about Roth conversions...what are the chances taxes will go lower? SEG-1: S&P 500 vs Everyone Else SEG-2:...
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RIS 12-31-24 The Best-of Show Episode-6
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/10) and Monday (12/16): Lance discusses why the NFIB Small Business Index matters (and what it is saying); the NFIB Confidence Index; expectatinos vs actual sales; they always fall short of expectations. Why tariffs are a benefit to small businesses. Outlook is very positive following Trump re-election (most small business owners are conservatively oriented.) Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too high; what happens if we don't meet them? It was easy managing money this year... A review of Bob Farrell's...
info_outlineAs we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn discuss five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025, plus client questions and viewers' emails. Economic data coming out this week for last month will be revised by March; what's the effect of less Government hiring/spending on the economy in 2025? Lance & Jonathan recap Christmas past; earnings expectations for the new yar are very elevated; curb your enthusiasm. The challenges to fundamental investors: No one knows what's going to happen this year; markets run in two modes: Expansion or contraction. Valuations/expectations must come down to match economic growth. Lance & Jonathan discuss the EFT Effect, the FOMO Effect, and the Bitcoin Effect on investor psychology.
SEG-1: What Happens When Economic Numbers are Revised
SEG-2: Why You Should Curb Your Enthusiasm in 2025
SEG-3: The Challenge to Fundamental Investing
SEG-4: The ETF Effect, FOMO Effect, & Bitcoin Effect
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRg1uqnrYH4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Curb Your Enthusiasm” In 2025"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Complacency Risk is On the Rise," is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sZGQPh4TLA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Santa Was a No-show"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NONYWlJFI6M&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
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