10-10-24 Rising Volatility, China Stimulus, & Storms' Economic Surge: What They Mean for Portfolios
The Real Investment Show Podcast
All was not hunky-dory in the recent Fed meeting, as the FOMC Meeting minutes reveal a split-decision on lowering rates by 50-bps vs 25-bps. Meanwhile, in the markets, the S&P is having its Best Year Ever since the "turn of the century." The current, rising wedge is both a bullish and bearish sign; CPI numbers will be today's trigger. Volatility in the markets, thanks to uncertainty over presidential election outcome, Israel-Iran war effect on oil prices, etc. The VIX doesn't always tell you everything. We're at the beginning of a Fed-easing campaign; the Hawkish-Dovish Fed has a bipolar...
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10-10-24 Will CPI Report Trigger a MACD Buy Signal?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
There is a very define, rising wedge in the markets, which is both bullish and bearish: It all depends upon to which side markets break out next. As of Wednesday (9/9), we are right at the top of that bullish wedge. IF today's CPI report is good, and markets break to the upside, you will see markets continue higher, triggering a buy signal on the MACD. If inflation comes in hotter-than-expected, markets will sell off in anticipation of a reduction of odds of another rate cut. For now, bullish activity continues, with the 20-DMA acting as support; this compression of price is about to resolve...
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10-9-24 Markets Rally: What Tuesday's Tech Stock Surge Means for Investors
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Trauma of Hurricanes revisited: Hurricane Alicia (1983) remembered as Hurricane Milton bears down on Florida today; Lance shares his bizzare dream about aliens refuting Flat-earthers; why high interest rates are unsustainable. Fed rate cuts don't mean rates will go straight down. Why 4% rates cannot last for long. Markets rally amid price compression; what is sustaining markets, historically high, without any Fed liquidity injection. Analysts are still targeting S&P 6000 by the end of the year. NFIB members note borrowing rates at 8% are too high, and will erode economic growth and any...
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10-9-24 Opportunity to Buy Bonds is Coming
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the era of low interest rates over? Lots of videos being posted to that effect, that the economic data doesn't support higher rates, there's too much debt for higher rates, etc., etc. That doesn't mean that rates have to come straight down when the start to go lower. Well, rates have begun to fall, and we've had the predictable result of bonds selling off and bond yields moving higher. Friday's strong Jobs report also contributed a little knee-jerk reaction to push yields higher, as well. Bonds are currently on a sell signal, so if you've been looking for an opening to get into bonds, be...
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10-8-24 You Can't Avoid Risk - But You Can Manage It
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The key to successfully managing money is managing risk. Economnic news is absent; no 50bps rate cut in November, thanks to a strong jobs report, and markets are adjusting to that reality. One off shoot of Jobs report shows more workers seeking secondary, part time employment to make ends meet. Markets sold off on Monday, as price compresion continues. Markets may be stuck untikl earnings season provides direction. Managing risk: A function of loss; Howard Marks on Risk: there is a symmetry of risk and volatility, of gains vs losses. You cannot quantify risk; the challenge is how to best...
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10-8-24 Volatility is Flashing a Caution Light
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off on Monday as part of a price compression process. Futures are pointing upward this morning, and markets need to hold levels today. We're on a sell signal and need to work off over bought positions. Earnings season will generate the next set of drivers as we head into the election. Mid-October thru the end of the month tends to be a bit weaker period. Meanwhile, volatility has been very quietly rising, which normally coincides with market correction. Three- to four- to five-percent corrections are very likely when it occurs as markets are going up. Hosted by RIA Chief...
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10-7-24 Millennial Earnings Season Begins
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This week marks the start of earnings season for Q; the 2024 Election and the next FOMC Meeting also add volatility to markets. Friday's Jobs report came in stronger than expected (leaving one to wonder what kind of revision to the numbers is to come). Within the report, 700k gubernment workers were added. The S&P on Friday rallied on the employment news, but that also pretty much killed any chance of a 50bps rate cut by the Fed. Markets are now in a consolidation period, setting up for a corrective cycle a head of the 2024 Election. Lance explains the bullish and bearish takes of...
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10-7-24 Are Markets Preparing for a Pre-election Correction?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P rallied nicely Friday on a strong employment report, and surprisingly so; that eliminates the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut in November. For us, if we're the Fed, and employment is that strong, we would cut rates at all. But that's just us. Markets rallied towards the top of the consolidation range. Today's opening looks to give up a chunk of Friday's gains, and as in previous consolidation patterns, it would appear markets are setting up for some type of corrective action within the next several weeks. (During election years, with the current set-up, markets typically get a...
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10-4-24 The Importance of Trusts in Financial Planning
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market preview & Fed possiblities as jobs numbers are releasaed today; anecdotal evidence that small businesses are making more credit inquiries to banks: A prelude to more growth? The Longshoreman's strike is suspended with a proposed 65% pay increase; raises the question of value in the cost of a college degree. The marriage of blue collar jobss to AI will present new opportunities with rewarding pay. Jon & Matt discuss aspects of financial planning, risk management, and portfolio strategy. Estate planning as a risk management tool; pecking orders & durable powers of attorney....
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10-3-24 When a Crystal Ball Clouds Investor Judgement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A preview of tomorrow''s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance's FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing anything. What will the Fed do in response to poor jobs numbers? Interestingly, QT is conspicuously absent from latest Fed discussion notes. Market Breadth continues to soar. You can't make this up: Hurricane (James T.) Kirk: this wlll be comedy...
info_outlineMarkets had a big reversal day Wednesday: Core CPI was hotter than expected, and markets sold off about 1.5%. And at about the time markets were kissing the 100-DNA, Nvidia's CEO told a Goldman conference his company cannot keep up with AI chips demand. The Mag-7 came roaring back to drive markets up 1%, resulting in a 2.5% gain from the low. Markets are now testing resistance at the 20-DMA, and if successful, will rocket upward to new, all-time highs. Remain cautious for now and manage risk. Technically, the market is improving.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX3NtgCIW20&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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