1-13-25 How Low Can Markets Go?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets will open lower this morning on continued inflation fears and the Fed's more hawkish stance. BUT...stocks have been really over bought and over deviated: Remember in December we were talking about over deviated stocks and the need for a correction. So now, selling pressure is continuing to revert that overbought condition, and so a correction should be no surprise. If markets do not recover today (we're right on the 100-DMA), there really is no additional support until markets go significantly lower towards the 200-DMA. That being said, it's not going to take s lot to create a bit of a...
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1-10-25 What the Social Security Fairness Acts Means for Your Retirement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Richard and Jonathan discuss the narratives that are driving the markets, and the fear factor for bond investors. Is the response to tariff threats an over-reaction? How to deal with emotions in investing. Menwhile, job satisfaction is highest among the 60+ crowd: The group has been working longer, and understands the value of socialization; retirement planning shold include qualitative elements. A look at Gen-z Worth Ethic. The Social Security Fairness Act is now the law of the land, signed on Sunday by President Biden. It promises to erase rules that penalized some retirees by eliminating...
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1-9-25 Why Are Bond Yields Rising?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets barely achieved a positive close on Wednesday, to create a string of positive action for the first five trading days in January. (Markets are closed today in honor of the late President Jimmy Carter.) There's a market consolidation underway, with the 20-DMA and 50-DMA about to cross. Lance & Michael discuss the Fed's sentiment shift about inflation, and the non-corellation between interest rates and inflation. The Fed may have cut interest rates, but markets have raised them; the actual effects of Fed rate cuts are deflationary. Fed policy is still restrictive; economy is back to...
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1-9-25 DMA Crossovers Are Not a Death Knell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Wall Street axioms can be fun, but remember that they're based on historical averages. Which brings up the January Barometer: As go the first five trading days of January, so goes the month; and as goes the month of January, so goes the year. Markets eked out a positive day on Wednesday to barely produce a positive string of five trading days. But anything can happen. One thing to be wary of: The 20-DMA is close to crossing the 50-DMA. Markets have been doing okay in a continuation of consolidating that began back in August, but the proximity of those two moving averages to one another is...
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1-8-25 Market Reversal: Implications Now
The Real Investment Show Podcast
With Friday's December Employment Report waiting in the wings, it's fair to ask what happened to the December JOLTS Report. Investors are questioning whether we'll see continued growth from December. What does Q4 GDP at 2.7% really mean? Understanding the data and reading the January Barometer (so far). Lance shares his screen in commenting on sector rotations. Dan Niles' predciton of a 20% correction this year: Lance's reality check. Crash vs correction. Lance discusses the importance of an investing process: Rules to offset emotional bias. Fundamentals matter over the long term. SEG-1:...
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1-8-25 Is the January Barometer Broken?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Today is the 5th Trading Day of January, and as go the first five days of the year, so goes the month of January, and so goes the rest of the year...according to the January Barometer. We are in the middle of the January Barometer: If markets close higher today, we will have successfully created a positive first-five-days-of-the-year. But just barely. Note: We failed the Santa Claus Rally, we are threatening to close lower today (Dow Futures are down during this recording), and today's result will trigger the second leg of the January Barometer. HOWEVER: In 2024, we had a negative First Five...
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1-7-25 Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Real Investment Show Podcast
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn discuss five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025, plus client questions and viewers' emails. Economic data coming out this week for last month will be revised by March; what's the effect of less Government...
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1-7-25 Complacency Risk is On the Rise
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets started the week with a strong open, rallying above the 20- and 50-DMA, but faded off during the day, could not hold the 20-DMA, and settled above the 50-DMA. MACD Momentum is starting to turn positive. Markets appear to be struggling still, with interest rates weighing on valuations, putting a lid on short term markets. Oversold conditions are beginning to resolve, and that's limiting the fuel that might be used in a rally. Volatility has been collapsing, and complacency about a correction is on the rise. That's potentially a liability to keep markets from moving higher in the short...
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1-6-25 Santa Was a No-show
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We're baaack from our Winter Break, and it seemed as if Santa arrived on Christmas Eve, pushing the markets back above the important 50-DMA. However, by the end of the year, it seemed investors were naughty this year and received a “lump of coal,“ with markets selling off back toward recent lows. Despite Friday’s impressive reflexive rally, the market fell about 0.5% short of rallying enough to save the “Santa Rally.” What does this mean for markets this year? Higher than average returns aren't normal; it's not often to get back-to-back 20% earnings years (charts). Lance discusses...
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1-6-25 Investor Watchword: Curb Your Expectations
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Santa did not visit Broad & Wall over the holidays, which was a bit of a disappointment. Markets did have a nice enough rally on Friday, but it was about a half percent shy of achieving "Santa Claus Rally" status. What does that mean for the year? Typically, three elements: A Santa Clause Rally, the first five days of January, and the full month of January; these are predictors of performance for the rest of the year. But these indicators aren't always correct. Our watchwords for 2025: Curb your expectations. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by...
info_outlineWelcome back from Thanksgiving break: Is it time to initiate Christmas Bonds to help Retailers? While markts have performed well, expect some sloppiness heading into the end of the year. We'll have Black Friday and Cyber Monday results later this week. Meanwhile, markets continue to grind higher. What will be the effects of Trump Administration picks and regulatory changes? High levels of market concentration will result in more volatility from regulatory disruptions. Market complacency in the past is a present risk; Lance looks at the impact of government spending, and a revealing chart of richest/poorest states...and the D.C. A sample of THC Pizza, the Thanksgiving Effect, and stupid housing solutions from Slate. Demographics are destiny: Is the US following Japan? Expect more market volatility in 2025; markets are a function of corporate earnings. It's okay to take speculative bets, but control risk. Commentary on MicroStrategy's strategy of using convertible debt to purchase Bitcoin: What could possibly go wrong?
SEG-1: Christmas Bonds & Markets Grind Ever Higher
SEG-2: Market Risks for 2025
SEG-3: THC Pizza & Stupid Housing Solutions
SEG-4: Expecting Volatility in 2025
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIfTDuPmsQs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Extreme Speculation Has Returned"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "It's a Good Time for Portfolio Clean-up" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6eDUHM52Uk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Why Credit Spreads Matter"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43V7qFIcbWE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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