RIS 1-2-25 THURSDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-8
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 01/02/2025
1-6-25 Santa Was a No-show
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We're baaack from our Winter Break, and it seemed as if Santa arrived on Christmas Eve, pushing the markets back above the important 50-DMA. However, by the end of the year, it seemed investors were naughty this year and received a “lump of coal,“ with markets selling off back toward recent lows. Despite Friday’s impressive reflexive rally, the market fell about 0.5% short of rallying enough to save the “Santa Rally.” What does this mean for markets this year? Higher than average returns aren't normal; it's not often to get back-to-back 20% earnings years (charts). Lance discusses...
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1-6-25 Investor Watchword: Curb Your Expectations
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Santa did not visit Broad & Wall over the holidays, which was a bit of a disappointment. Markets did have a nice enough rally on Friday, but it was about a half percent shy of achieving "Santa Claus Rally" status. What does that mean for the year? Typically, three elements: A Santa Clause Rally, the first five days of January, and the full month of January; these are predictors of performance for the rest of the year. But these indicators aren't always correct. Our watchwords for 2025: Curb your expectations. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by...
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RIS 1-3-25 FRIDAY Best of Show
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Heads-up: We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. Rich & Danny's final live show of the year starts with coverage of Tariffs, inflation vs deflation, and Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Head. Being cautiously optimistic: We've been living in a government-driven economy: Markets aren't red or blue; they're green. How estate planning may evolved during the Trump presidency; will the SALT deduction...
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RIS 1-2-25 THURSDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-8
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Heads-up: We're still on vacation until Monday (1/6/25); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect, and whether...
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1-1-25 WEDNESDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-7
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/8), Wednesday (12/11), Tuesday (12/17), and Wednesday (12/18): More commentary on those who would think they can beat the market, and what's in store if the show goes straight to YouTube (no filter). Old maxims about investing no longer hold true with the velocity of information and distortion of the markets. Why does no one want Value Stocks anymore? Lance and Danny recall reading encyclopedias as youths. The thing about Roth conversions...what are the chances taxes will go lower? SEG-1: S&P 500 vs Everyone Else SEG-2:...
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RIS 12-31-24 The Best-of Show Episode-6
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/10) and Monday (12/16): Lance discusses why the NFIB Small Business Index matters (and what it is saying); the NFIB Confidence Index; expectatinos vs actual sales; they always fall short of expectations. Why tariffs are a benefit to small businesses. Outlook is very positive following Trump re-election (most small business owners are conservatively oriented.) Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too high; what happens if we don't meet them? It was easy managing money this year... A review of Bob Farrell's...
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12-30-24 MONDAY The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-5
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a compilation of previously broadcast segments gathered from Monday (12/9), Tuesday (12/10), and Tuesday (12/17): Tax-loss Harvesting & RMD's: Do it now. (Why you shouldn't wait until after Christmas.) Understanding the Wash-Sale Rule; speculate in taxable accounts, not IRA's and 401-k's. A plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows originating? When inflation...
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12-27-24 FRIDAY The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-4
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirror such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19%...
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RIS 12-26-24 THURSDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-3
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirror such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19%...
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12-24-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-2
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Wednesday (12/4) and Monday (12/9): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...
info_outlineHeads-up: We're still on vacation until Monday (1/6/25); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect, and whether the Fed has inflation under control. Is the Fed going to suddenly pivot to a dovish stance in the first half of 2025? The restrictive policy of the Fed, and short-term investing in bond yields; is Jerome Powell making a mistake? The world is in a recession; why should we care? Because of the globalization of trade. Lance examines the correlations of US GDP to other countries'. Is the US GDP growth normal, or will the US have to catch-down to other economies? We are still experiencing the residual effects of government spending in our economy.
SEG-1 Fed Cuts Rates, Adds Hawkish Tone
SEG-2: Did the Fed Steal Christmas?
SEG-3: Jerome Powell's Balancing Act: Is He Making a Mistake now?
SEG-4: Will the US Catch-down to the Rest of the World?
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjZ21RSDn14&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Global Conditions Portend A Catch-Down In America"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/global-conditions-portend-a-catch-down-in-america/
"Permabull? Hardly."
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/permabull-hardly/
"Trump Election Sends NFIB Optimism Surging"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trump-election-sends-nfib-optimism-surging/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Fed is Never Right," is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h87m6yGM_M8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElTw9jd0hg8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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