8-6-25 Be Careful with Technical Analysis | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 08/06/2025
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Retirement planning is about more than building a portfolio. It’s also about deciding what comes next. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty explore the retirement crossroads: making the transition from work to retirement, finding purpose after a career, setting new goals, applying your skills in new ways, and overcoming the reluctance many retirees have to spend the money they’ve accumulated. We also dig into the financial strategies that can make a difference, including Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs), donor-advised funds, charitable checks that aren’t cashed, changing tax...
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Is the stock market dangerously expensive, or are investors overlooking strong future earnings growth? The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, yet the PEG ratio, which incorporates expected earnings growth, is signaling one of the cheapest market valuations in decades. Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts examine why these two popular valuation measures are sending completely opposite signals. The key difference comes down to expectations: CAPE relies on historical earnings, while PEG depends heavily on Wall Street forecasts for future growth. We look at the reliability of those...
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Markets remain trapped in a frustrating sideways consolidation as money rapidly rotates between Technology, Healthcare, Momentum, and Value. Momentum stocks remain under pressure, while large-cap Value and Quality are holding up better. With volatility still compressed and markets offering little directional conviction, Lance Roberts explains why investors should avoid chasing rotations or making rash portfolio moves until the market finally shows its hand. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video...
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September is starting with a new set of challenges for investors: rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, persistent inflation, renewed geopolitical tensions, and growing questions about whether the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates again. Add historically weak September seasonality and the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections, and investors have plenty to think about. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions about market risk, interest rates, inflation, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and what investors should be watching next. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 -...
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Markets are testing support after three straight days of selling, with technology and semiconductors leading the weakness. The S&P 500 is moving toward its 50-DMA as September seasonality, upcoming corporate buyback blackouts, and quarter-end repositioning add to downside risk. But this remains a normal market pullback, not a reason to panic. With volatility still unusually low and markets not yet deeply oversold, investors should keep the weakness in context. Now is the time to manage risk, take profits where appropriate, rebalance portfolio allocations, and raise some cash rather than...
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What should a good financial planner actually do for you? It should go far beyond choosing investments or building a retirement portfolio. A strong financial planning relationship should provide organization, accountability, objectivity, education, and proactive guidance while coordinating investments, taxes, Social Security, Medicare, insurance, estate planning, and retirement income. Just as importantly, your financial plan should evolve as your life, goals, markets, and tax laws change. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine what investors should expect from a financial planner, why...
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Markets are showing broader signs of weakness as the S&P 500, equal-weight index, small caps, and international stocks test or break key moving averages. Technology remains under pressure, while sector rotation continues beneath the surface. Lance Roberts looks at why a move toward the 50-DMA would not be surprising, why investors should avoid making large portfolio bets before the market establishes a clearer direction, and how a strengthening U.S. Dollar could pressure emerging markets, gold, and precious metals. For now, patience may be the best strategy as markets work through this...
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Stanley Druckenmiller is warning Washington about the bond market, but the real message may not be an impending debt crisis. The bond market may have already delivered its verdict. Lance Roberts examines Druckenmiller’s criticism of Treasury intervention, Scott Bessent’s expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, and why attempts to manage yields could create a bigger problem than the initial intervention itself. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - Labor Day Preview, Kevin Warsh Review 4:53 - US-Venezuela Oil Deal 6:08 - August Into September Markets 12:09 - Pumpkins, Spice, & Sickle and Hammer 13:14 -...
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September arrives with markets under pressure, volatility unusually compressed, and the S&P 500 testing key technical support. With earnings season over and economic data taking center stage, investors could face a more challenging stretch as momentum stocks weaken and midterm election uncertainty approaches. Lance Roberts examines the market’s sell signal, the potential for a pullback toward the 50-DMA and 100-DMA, and why the 7,500 area could become important support. With rapid market rotation making risk management more difficult, maintaining a cash buffer, managing bond duration,...
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Who inherits your IRA could matter just as much as what’s in it. The SECURE Act changed the rules for inherited retirement accounts, while newer IRS regulations created additional planning opportunities for trusts and multiple beneficiaries. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down IRA beneficiary designations, the 10-year distribution rule, trusts as retirement account beneficiaries, and why outdated estate plans can create unintended tax consequences. Plus, we explain how properly structured trusts and subtrusts may provide greater flexibility for spouses, children, and other...
info_outlineTechnical Analysis is a good way of seeing what the herd is thinking; it's a representation of market psychology. Those who characterize technical analysis as "voodoo" actually take the rules a little too literally. We suggest using stop loss levels as a measure, and when those stops are triggered, either pay attention to find a bounce to sell into, or that stock will confirm support from a previous level. Why is this relevant? We violated the 20-DMA this week. That does not necessarily mean we're going into a bigger correction; the violation WAS a warning sign that markets COULD work their way lower. This is where PATIENCE is important in using technical analysis. IF markets stay below the 20-DMA thru Friday, that's a confirmation of the break. If markets close above this level on Friday, then the break below was just a violation; if they close BELOW that level, it's a confirmation of the break, and a key to watch for markets to go lower towards the 50-DMA. Be cautious about knee jerk reactions because of a technical break; you could get whipsawed.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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