10-15-26 Inflation Runs Hot: What's Next for the Fed?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 10/15/2026
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is artificial intelligence making portfolio diversification more difficult than investors realize? AI-driven stocks dominate major market indexes, leaving investors potentially overexposed to a handful of technology companies, even when they own diversified index funds. Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn examine the hidden risks of AI-driven market concentration, the limitations of traditional diversification, and practical strategies for balancing portfolio risk without sacrificing long-term investment objectives. 0:00 - INTRO 1:00 - What Employment Reports & JOLTS Surveys Say 3:23 - Forward...
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Oil prices are surging, but could an energy sector reversal be coming? Lance Roberts examines why extremely overbought crude oil prices may be signaling a near-term peak, with implications for inflation, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and the stock market. The S&P 500 remains in consolidation after testing its 100-day moving average, while sector rotation continues. Technology stocks have weakened as Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Materials, and Financials gain strength. Energy remains unusually extended, raising the possibility of a sharp correction. Should investors take profits...
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Is inflation here to stay, or could higher prices eventually correct themselves? Lance Roberts explains why the difference between "good" and "bad" inflation matters for the Federal Reserve, interest rates, Treasury yields, and the stock market. We examine what inflation trends reveal about consumer purchasing power, Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, and the outlook for investors. Could today's inflation pressures eventually become tomorrow's economic weakness? 0:00 - INTRO 0:51 - Heavy Week of Earnings Driving markets 2:05 - Markets Sell off on Friday 3:52 - Markets Still Stuck in Same...
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Technology stocks are under pressure as investors rotate from growth to value, while the S&P 500 approaches a critical test of its 100-day moving average. Following Friday's selloff, the market remains trapped in a two-month consolidation range, with a short-term momentum sell signal suggesting further downside pressure. AI-related suppliers and neocloud stocks suffered particularly sharp losses, even as broader market breadth improved. Lance Roberts examines how falling 10-year Treasury yields are fueling sector rotation, why equal-weight stocks are outperforming mega-cap technology, and...
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How much does owning a dog or cat really cost over its lifetime? From adoption fees and food to veterinary care, pet insurance, and estate planning, pet ownership comes with financial obligations that can significantly affect your household budget. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty examine the true lifetime costs of pet ownership, including the differences between dogs and cats, unexpected healthcare expenses, dental care, travel arrangements, and ways to manage financial risks. Should pet expenses have their own line item in your financial plan? Is pet insurance worth the premiums? And...
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Inflation remains stubbornly elevated, raising fresh questions about the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Will the Fed hold rates higher for longer, or will slowing economic growth force policymakers to reconsider? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the latest inflation trends, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and what persistent price pressures could mean for the stock market, Treasury yields, and investors. Can the Federal Reserve bring inflation under control without undermining economic growth? We discuss the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the risks of...
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Hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data sent stocks lower Wednesday, erasing the S&P 500's recent breakout to all-time highs and pushing markets back into the trading range that has persisted since August. With the index now threatening to test its 100-day moving average, is a larger correction developing, or is this simply normal October market behavior? Lance Roberts examines why improving market breadth and a rotation from growth to value stocks may be helping stabilize markets despite weakness in Technology and semiconductor shares. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is showing signs...
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What do the latest economic developments, stock market trends, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical events mean for your investments and retirement plans? Join Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff for Q&A Wednesday as we examine the past week's financial headlines, market volatility, interest rates, Treasury yields, and investment opportunities. 0:00 - INTRO 0:56 - CPI Day & Financials 3:23 - Rotation from Growth to Value 4:04 - Russell 2000 Breaks 200-DMA 7:07 - Allergies & Interest Rates and Real Estate 12:37 - Investment Capital Movement from Europe to US 13:05 - Bear...
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The S&P 500 continues to hold steady, but beneath the surface, market weakness persists as investors rotate from growth stocks into value. Technology and semiconductor stocks are facing selling pressure, while mega-cap names like Apple, Alphabet (Google), and Nvidia help support the market-cap-weighted S&P 500. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000, S&P SmallCap 600, and S&P MidCap 400 reveal a different picture. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks continue to struggle, with weak market breadth and widening performance gaps across sectors. In today's Before the Bell, Lance Roberts examines the...
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Is Gen Z gambling away its financial future? And with 10-year Treasury yields near 5%, are bonds finally offering investors a safer bet? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine two very different approaches to financial risk: the growing popularity of sports betting, online gambling, and speculative trading among younger Americans, and the potential investment opportunities emerging in the U.S. Treasury market. 0:00 - INTRO 1:12 - Bill King Recap* & Gen Z Gambling Preview 2:27 - Earnings Season Kicks off: Banks' Buying Opportunity? 4:35 - The Only Thing Holding Market Up is Technology...
info_outlineInflation remains stubbornly elevated, raising fresh questions about the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Will the Fed hold rates higher for longer, or will slowing economic growth force policymakers to reconsider?
Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the latest inflation trends, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and what persistent price pressures could mean for the stock market, Treasury yields, and investors.
Can the Federal Reserve bring inflation under control without undermining economic growth? We discuss the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the risks of keeping interest rates elevated, and how changing inflation expectations could influence stocks, bonds, and portfolio strategy.
0:00 - INTRO
0:46 - CPI Comes in Hot
2:24 - Markets Sell Off on Inflation Print
3:36 - RSP Showing Recovery in Rotations
6:46 - Barry White & Sore Throats
7:49 - The Tell of the Tails - Foreign Selling & Domestic Buying
10:45 - Retail Bond Buying (EDIT)
12:10 - Two Reasons: CPI +.01%, Bond Yields Fall
14:09 - When Bad News is Good News
15:56 - CoreWeave (neo-cloud) Factor: Is AI Overbuilding?
18:49 - Credit Spread Widening: Is the Fed Making a Mistake?
22:01 - How Fed Policy is Working Through the Economy
22:47 - Credit Spreads in CCC Arena (chart)
27:06 - The Fed Wants the Cost of Money to be More Painful
28:28 - Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) as Surrogates for Bond Market (chart)
30:24 - The Problem with MBS - Becoming Specified Pools
38:02 - Why Buy MBS vs Treasury?
40:03 - PPI & Retail Sales Preview
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Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles Mentioned in Today's Show:
"Think Rates Are Peaking? Consider Mortgage-Backed Securities"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-rates-are-peaking-consider-mortgage-backed-securities/
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Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Hot Inflation, Stalled Markets,"
https://youtu.be/2WPLXIJt24g
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Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday"
https://youtube.com/live/KW1HXnwHT0E
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