8/21/25 Speculative Frenzy - Fading or Re-fueling?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 08/21/2025
The Real Investment Show Podcast
New investors often believe that higher risk equals higher reward—but that’s not always the case. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn explore why newbie investors take on more risk than experienced ones, the common investing mistakes beginners make, and how risk management strategies can protect long-term wealth. From portfolio allocation to investor psychology, we’ll compare how experienced vs. beginner investors approach risk and why discipline matters more than luck. If you’re starting your investing journey, this discussion will help you avoid the traps that cost new investors...
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Markets sold off after testing all time highs. The S&P has now set a "double top," and markets are now consolidating in a very narrow channel. Meanwhile, markets are doing well with a bullish trend still in place. However, there also remains a negative divergence with money flows going into the market are weakening, as well as a negative divergence in momentum and relative strength. Underneath the surface, there is some deterioration in the markets. Such are not immediate threats, but are a prelude to an eventual market correction. And with level of deviation, a price correction of between...
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“Buy every dip” has been the mantra of this bull market — and so far, it has rewarded investors. Lance Roberts explains why the buy the dip strategy continues to work in today’s market, even as valuations stretch and risks build beneath the surface. Lance looks at how investors are approaching stock market pullback investing, what history tells us about short-term market trends versus long-term risks, and the potential turning points that could challenge the strategy. More importantly, we’ll outline how to incorporate risk management in volatile markets so portfolios aren’t caught...
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Markets closed at all-time highs on Friday, thanks to comments by Jerome Powell that the Fed will be cutting rates in September. Markets confirmed support at the 20-DMA. Markets also saw a very sharp uptick in money flows, thanks to options expirations: Friday was the largest options expiration day for August on record. Market breadth also improved dramatically. Small-cap and Mid-cap stocks also jumped by 3%. Futures this morning are lower, with some profit taking coming in. However, we are still running a negative divergence in money flows and relative strength, indicating underlying...
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Raising money-smart kids is one of the most valuable lessons you can give them for life. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down how to teach kids about money, from saving and budgeting to making smart financial decisions early on. You’ll learn practical strategies for financial literacy for children, including: Simple ways to explain money to kids How to teach kids to save money and set goals Smart money habits that last a lifetime Real-world lessons for raising financially responsible kids Whether you’re a parent, grandparent, or educator, these tips will help you set the...
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Markets are showing signs of a speculative frenzy once again—but is the fire burning out or just getting started? Danny Ratliff & Michael Lebowitz break down the latest stock market speculation, shifts in investor sentiment 2025, and the risks of a potential market bubble forming. We’ll look at how speculative trading trends are driving prices higher, what this means for long-term investors, and where financial market volatility could take markets next. If you’re looking to understand whether the rally is sustainable—or if risk is quietly building beneath the surface—this...
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Target's earnings report was not good, and guidance was weaker; the chain is blaming the consumer for not spending in their stores. This is nothing new: We've heard from other retailers like Chipotle, Starbuck's, and Cava that consumers are holding back on spending. Additionally, a look at GDP reveals consumption, which is 2/3rds of the economy, dropping a lot. AI infrastructure building has offset this somewhat, but it underscores the importance of the consumer in the economy. WalMart's report today will be similarly intriguing as a barometer of the consumer. This may be the calm before the...
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Lance Roberts interviews John Tamny, author, economist, and editor of RealClearMarkets. Tamny’s provocative new book, Deficit Delusion, reframes how we think about debt and growth. He makes a bold case: Trump-style protectionism and fear-driven immigration policies are economically self-defeating—even for conservatives. Trade is the greatest foreign policy mankind has ever devised, plus it's great for workers as is any scenario that expands the division of labor. $36.1 trillion Government Debt is not a crisis—it’s a sign of U.S. strength & investor confidence about the...
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Do you really need a local financial advisor to manage your money? Geography doesn’t matter anymore when it comes to building wealth and securing your financial future. Lance previews this week's Jackson Hole consortium; what will Jerome Powell Infer? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn cover the conundrum of local vs virtual financial advisors; how college students are lured by credit card offers, and the dangers of credit accounts. This leads to a discussion of personal budgeting, and how deceptively easy it is to begin a culture of savings; the "B-word" is Budget; the importance of...
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Markets have been very slowly climbing a wall of worry over the past few weeks. While August tends to be a weaker month for markets, such has not been the case thus far. However, negative divergences in relative strength, money flows, and momentum have belied an underlying weakness in the markets. The NASDAQ has been doing well with the drive to chase technology stocks, but that trend has weakened even more than the S&P 500, creating a divergence between the two indexes. A look at Bitcoin, which is a proxy for risk-taking, and for which there is a high correlation with the NASDAQ, also...
info_outlineMarkets are showing signs of a speculative frenzy once again—but is the fire burning out or just getting started?
Danny Ratliff & Michael Lebowitz break down the latest stock market speculation, shifts in investor sentiment 2025, and the risks of a potential market bubble forming. We’ll look at how speculative trading trends are driving prices higher, what this means for long-term investors, and where financial market volatility could take markets next.
If you’re looking to understand whether the rally is sustainable—or if risk is quietly building beneath the surface—this discussion will give you the insights you need to stay informed and positioned wisely.
1 - Retailers Are Seeing Diminished Consumer Spending
2 - What Sector Rotation is Telling Us
3 - Speculative Bull Markets Can Go On for a Long Time
4 - The Fed is Contending With Weak Employment
5 - The Full Impact of Tariff is Still Unknown
6 - Jackson Hole & the Rate Cut Conundrum
7 - The Truth About Fed Meeting Minutes
8 - Lisa Cook & The Politicization of The Fed
9 - Fed Rate Cuts - 50 or 25?
10 - The Starbuck's Indicator of Consumer Sentiment
11- The Surprising Side Benefits of Paying with Cash
12 - Looking at the Positives
13 - Keeping Perspectives on Interest Rates
14 - Mortgage Rates vs Treasury Rates
15 - What Lowerd Rates Might Imply
16 - UPS: Value or Value Trap?
Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's video on YouTube:
https://bit.ly/4mrXcJW
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Bad News is not New News" is here:
https://bit.ly/4lwwFtH
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Our previous show, "John Tamny - Money is Ruthless," can be viewed here:
https://youtu.be/Hm6yNkNtC0Q
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Greg Mankiw's Solutions Would Expand Federal Debt"
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/2025/08/12/greg_mankiws_solutions_would_expand_federal_debt_1128148.html
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Register for our next Candid Coffee, "Savvy Social Security Planning," August 23, 2025:
https://streamyard.com/watch/pbx9RwqV8cjF
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