1-13-26 The Economic Reflation Narrative Is Back
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 01/13/2026
3-23-26 200-DMA Broken – Bear Market or Buy Signal?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P 500 just broke its 200-day moving average. Is this a bear market signal or a historic buying opportunity? The answer depends on a clear set of warning indicators – and right now, only two of six are flashing red. Lance Roberts comments in real-time as news of a delay in miliary strikes on Iran power stations affects pre-market action. Lance also breaks down every 200-DMA break since 2000, separating the seven sustained crashes from the five whipsaw recoveries. The data gap is stark: average 12-month return after a sustained break is -4.0%, versus +19.8% after a brief one. We walk...
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3-23-26 Trump-Iran News Reverses Futures | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets confirmed a break below the 200-Day Moving Average on Friday — amplified by Options Expiration Day selling. Then a single headline changed everything. During this live pre-market update, news broke that President Trump was postponing military strikes on Iranian power plants — instantly reversing market futures and setting up a significant bounce at the open. This is exactly why knee-jerk reactions can destroy your trading account. One headline. One move. Markets potentially back above the 200-DMA. Stay disciplined. Stay informed. Watch before the open. Subscribe for daily...
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3-20-26 Tax Strategies That Actually Save You Money
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Most people think about taxes once a year. Smart investors think about them every year. Richard Rosso & Sarah Buenger break down the critical difference between tax preparation and true tax planning, and why that distinction could be worth thousands of dollars to your portfolio over time. We'll walk through real-world anonymous case studies from our client work, including how we helped one client sell nearly half of a concentrated stock position while staying entirely within the 0% capital gains bracket. We also cover Roth conversion timing, IRMAA bracket management, tax-efficient...
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3-19-26 Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The private credit market has exploded from under $500 billion a decade ago to $1.2 trillion domestically and $1.7 trillion globally — and stress is building fast. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down exactly what private credit is, who the major players are, and why rising credit stress could force the Federal Reserve's hand — even if inflation and unemployment don't justify it. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 1:02 - Cash & Girl...
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3-19-26 Markets Flail as Rate Cut Hopes Fail | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Hot inflation data sent markets lower Wednesday, killing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and leaving the Fed firmly on hold. Now markets are testing the critical 200-day moving average (200-DMA) — a level that has provided support for 214 consecutive days. Before you make any moves, here is what you need to know: Markets have worked off a significant portion of their overbought condition, but are not yet in oversold territory. A break of the 200-DMA alone is NOT a sell signal. Watch for a failed rally back to the 200-DMA — that is your true warning. We are in a...
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3-18-26 Q&A Wednesday: Open Season
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the most pressing financial topics shaping markets and personal finance decisions right now. We open with an analysis of current selling pressure and what it signals for equity markets, then dive deep into why credit spreads deserve your attention as a leading indicator of risk. We make the case for why waiting for S&P 6,900 could cost you opportunity, and offer a teaser on the growing private credit space. From there, we tackle real estate investment trusts and AG&C — examining whether current valuations finally make them worth buying. We...
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3-18-26 Rebalance Now Before the Rally Fades | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are pointing toward 6,800 this morning as momentum and relative strength improve. The reflexive rally we called last week is taking shape — and that creates a rebalancing opportunity, not a reason to chase. Don't wait for 6,900. Pick the neighborhood, not the house. Use the resistance zone around 6,800–6,900 as your selling area. Peak-to-trough has been roughly 5%; if your portfolio dropped more than that, you're carrying too much risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version...
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3-17-26 Fixing Your Broken Emergency Fund
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is your financial plan built to survive a market crash — or a $5,000 emergency? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down what retirees and younger workers both need to know about protecting their money when the economy sends mixed signals. Whether you're protecting a nest egg or just starting to build one, this episode gives you a practical framework for financial resilience — no matter what the market does next. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO...
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3-17-26 Market Bounces Off 200-DMA — Rally or Trap? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets Bounce Off 200-DMA — Is a Rally Building or Is This a Bull Trap? Markets tested the critical 200-Day Moving Average and bounced — but is this a real recovery or a relief rally? In today's pre-market breakdown, we cover what the charts and sentiment data are telling us right now before the opening bell. In This Video: Why record ETF short levels signal maximum market pessimism What buying volume at key price levels reveals about institutional behavior Why we're still saying: use any rally to reduce risk Oversold momentum and RSI conditions building a rally setup Why oil prices and...
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3-16-26 Oil Shock - Markets Reprice Risk
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Oil volatility is shaking global markets after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest modern oil supply shock. Crude briefly surged above $100 as geopolitical tensions escalated, sending volatility across equities, credit, and currencies. Lance Roberts discusses oil volatility, market technicals, private credit stress, and the key risks investors should be watching next. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:59 - Weekend Article Recap; Q4 GDP Revision 5:11 - Market Performance in...
info_outlineThe economic reflation narrative is back—but is it durable or just another market storyline driven by optimism and liquidity?
Lance Roberts explains what investors mean by “economic reflation,” why markets are once again pricing in stronger growth, and which data points are reinforcing the bullish case. We examine the role of monetary policy shifts, fiscal spending, labor market dynamics, and commodity trends that are supporting expectations for improving earnings and profitability.
Just as importantly, we address the risks to the reflation narrative. Sticky inflation, slowing global growth, tighter financial conditions, and policy missteps could all challenge the assumption that reflation is sustainable. Markets often price in best-case outcomes long before the data confirms them—and that gap can matter for portfolio risk.
We close with practical investor considerations, focusing on risk management, diversification, and how to think about portfolios when markets are caught between reflation optimism and late-cycle realities.
This discussion is designed for investors seeking context, not predictions, and a disciplined framework for navigating shifting macro narratives.
Visit RealInvestmentAdvice.com for daily market commentary, portfolio strategy insights, and risk-management tools.
0:00 - INTRO
0:19 - One Dad on Money - The Reflation Narrative preview
2:03 - Markets Rally Despite Powell Probe
7:33 - JPMorgan performance & Q4 Earnings Structure
12:33 - Optimism for 2026 - Rate of Inflation Slowing
14:42 - Goldman Survey: Everyone is Bullish About Everything All at Once
16:31 - The Premise of Economic Reflation - Three Reasons
19:01 - The Flaw in the Reflation Narrative
23:14 - Good Consensus for High Market Returns in 2026
24:19 - Why Valuations Matter
28:17 - Wilshire 5000 vs GDP Ratio Explained
29:50 - Why Cut Rates if Economy is Growing?
30:57 - The Biggest Risk to Economy - Geopolitics
33:55 - Sectors to Benefit from Reflation Narrative
36:20 - Risks from the Reflation Narrative
37:24 - The Nirvana of Reflation is Driving Markets
40:23 - Top Ten Percent vs the Rest of Earners
42:18 - What Does the Reflation Narrative Mean for the Average Person?
43:28 - The Risk from the Reflation Story
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT4dfHthMSY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles Mentioned in Today's Show:
"Investor Lessons From 2025 For 2026"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-outlook-for-2026-copy/
"2026 Earnings Outlook: Another Year Of Optimism"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2026-earnings-outlook-another-year-of-optimism/
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Watch our previous show, "Investor Lessons From 2025 for 2026" here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIPCj5xEG0c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Turbulence - Earnings Test Ahead," is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dcg2Jj73T5U&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:"
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator
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