8-6-26 Hidden AI Debt: Is the Risk Overblown?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 08/06/2026
9-7-26 Is Inflation Data Getting It Wrong? - Oliver Rust Interview DESCRIPTION
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the Consumer Price Index accurately measuring the inflation Americans actually experience? Lance Roberts talks with Oliver Rust of Truflation about how real-time inflation data can differ from traditional CPI measurements. They examine housing and rent concessions, regional price differences, consumer substitution, the K-shaped economy, housing affordability, and the continuing resilience of consumer spending. Oliver also explains how Truflation builds its inflation index, where its methodology differs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, its work with the Federal Reserve, and what its data...
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9-4-26 Don’t Be a Retirement Castaway
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Retirement planning is about more than building a portfolio. It’s also about deciding what comes next. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty explore the retirement crossroads: making the transition from work to retirement, finding purpose after a career, setting new goals, applying your skills in new ways, and overcoming the reluctance many retirees have to spend the money they’ve accumulated. We also dig into the financial strategies that can make a difference, including Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs), donor-advised funds, charitable checks that aren’t cashed, changing tax...
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9-3-26 Is the Stock Market Expensive or Cheap?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the stock market dangerously expensive, or are investors overlooking strong future earnings growth? The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, yet the PEG ratio, which incorporates expected earnings growth, is signaling one of the cheapest market valuations in decades. Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts examine why these two popular valuation measures are sending completely opposite signals. The key difference comes down to expectations: CAPE relies on historical earnings, while PEG depends heavily on Wall Street forecasts for future growth. We look at the reliability of those...
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9-3-26 Market Stuck in Neutral | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets remain trapped in a frustrating sideways consolidation as money rapidly rotates between Technology, Healthcare, Momentum, and Value. Momentum stocks remain under pressure, while large-cap Value and Quality are holding up better. With volatility still compressed and markets offering little directional conviction, Lance Roberts explains why investors should avoid chasing rotations or making rash portfolio moves until the market finally shows its hand. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video...
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9-2-26 Q&A Wednesday: What Are Markets Waiting For?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
September is starting with a new set of challenges for investors: rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, persistent inflation, renewed geopolitical tensions, and growing questions about whether the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates again. Add historically weak September seasonality and the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections, and investors have plenty to think about. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions about market risk, interest rates, inflation, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and what investors should be watching next. 0:00 INTRO 0:50 -...
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9-2-26 September Weakness Tests Market Support | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are testing support after three straight days of selling, with technology and semiconductors leading the weakness. The S&P 500 is moving toward its 50-DMA as September seasonality, upcoming corporate buyback blackouts, and quarter-end repositioning add to downside risk. But this remains a normal market pullback, not a reason to panic. With volatility still unusually low and markets not yet deeply oversold, investors should keep the weakness in context. Now is the time to manage risk, take profits where appropriate, rebalance portfolio allocations, and raise some cash rather than...
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9-1-26 What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What should a good financial planner actually do for you? It should go far beyond choosing investments or building a retirement portfolio. A strong financial planning relationship should provide organization, accountability, objectivity, education, and proactive guidance while coordinating investments, taxes, Social Security, Medicare, insurance, estate planning, and retirement income. Just as importantly, your financial plan should evolve as your life, goals, markets, and tax laws change. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine what investors should expect from a financial planner, why...
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9-1-26 Don’t Make a Big Bet Yet | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are showing broader signs of weakness as the S&P 500, equal-weight index, small caps, and international stocks test or break key moving averages. Technology remains under pressure, while sector rotation continues beneath the surface. Lance Roberts looks at why a move toward the 50-DMA would not be surprising, why investors should avoid making large portfolio bets before the market establishes a clearer direction, and how a strengthening U.S. Dollar could pressure emerging markets, gold, and precious metals. For now, patience may be the best strategy as markets work through this...
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8-31-26 Druckenmiller’s Bond Market Warning
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Stanley Druckenmiller is warning Washington about the bond market, but the real message may not be an impending debt crisis. The bond market may have already delivered its verdict. Lance Roberts examines Druckenmiller’s criticism of Treasury intervention, Scott Bessent’s expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, and why attempts to manage yields could create a bigger problem than the initial intervention itself. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - Labor Day Preview, Kevin Warsh Review 4:53 - US-Venezuela Oil Deal 6:08 - August Into September Markets 12:09 - Pumpkins, Spice, & Sickle and Hammer 13:14 -...
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8-31-26 September Volatility Test Begins | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
September arrives with markets under pressure, volatility unusually compressed, and the S&P 500 testing key technical support. With earnings season over and economic data taking center stage, investors could face a more challenging stretch as momentum stocks weaken and midterm election uncertainty approaches. Lance Roberts examines the market’s sell signal, the potential for a pullback toward the 50-DMA and 100-DMA, and why the 7,500 area could become important support. With rapid market rotation making risk management more difficult, maintaining a cash buffer, managing bond duration,...
info_outlineHas Wall Street been looking at hyperscaler debt all wrong?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine claims that the "hidden debt" of AI hyperscalers has surged to $1.65 trillion through off-balance-sheet obligations, including long-term leases and infrastructure commitments. But does that mean the AI investment thesis is breaking down?
We'll separate the headlines from the fundamentals by comparing the financial strength of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. While hidden obligations deserve attention, not all debt carries the same risk, and not every hyperscaler should be viewed through the same lens.
0:00 INTRO
1:02 - ISM Looking Good, MFG at 4-year High
4:13 - Markets Take a Rest - time to rebalance?
9:27 - Forward Returns After Breakout to New Highs
14:04 - Open Source AI vs Closed Source AI
17:18 - Who Benefits, Regardless of Source? (Who is the common denominator?)
22:31 - Hyperscaler Bear Porn - Look at the debt
24:53 - A Basket of Hyperscalers Does Not an Index Make
27:35 - What Does "Off Balance Sheet" Mean? (There Are Three Types)
28:27 - Data Center Leasing
30:32 - Joint Ventures
30:55 - Chip Leasing
35:20 - Listen to the Markets
38:34 - Busting Narratives; don't believe the hype
Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Palantir Earnings Provide Hope For The Software Sector"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/palantir-earnings-provide-hope-for-the-software-sector/
"Hidden Debt: Is Our Hyperscaler Thesis Wrong – Part 2"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/hidden-debt-is-our-hyperscaler-thesis-wrong-part-2/
"Carnage In Hyperscaler Credit: Really?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/carnage-in-hyperscaler-credit-really/
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Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Time to Rebalance?"
https://youtu.be/y7Er-AsOkFc
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Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Market Questions Answered"
https://youtube.com/live/9KGokK9tGuA
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/
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* REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Medicare Planning: Everything You Need to Know Before You Enroll," Thursday, August 20, 2026:
https://streamyard.com/watch/Qjx33M2tS4i4
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