There is a big move coming in the S&P 500. In today's episode we dive into the recent market volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and investor sentiment. We talk on the challenge of predicting markets and the importance of investing discipline, especially amid fear-driven reactions. And despite a possible short-term bounce, the market may remain in a downtrend. Tariffs also play a role in all of this so it's important to note real intent behind economic policy shifts, and how media narratives often distort the bigger picture. Learning to separate political bias from financial decision-making is key.
We discuss...
- The title “Big Move in the S&P 500 is Coming” turned out to be timely despite being chosen a week in advance.
- Recent market volatility was attributed to unexpected tariffs and general investor fear.
- The S&P 500 remains significantly overvalued, with a current PE ratio around 34 versus a historical average of 17.
- A 50% drop in the market would return valuations to historically normal levels.
- Investor psychology suggests more panic-selling could happen early in the following week before a potential bounce.
- Markets typically don’t move in straight lines and operate within up-and-down momentum cycles.
- Conservative positioning is advised; sitting on the sidelines may be the safer play for now.
- The only assets showing strength recently are crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum), the VIX, bonds, and a few niche equities like corn and select homebuilders.
- Investors should separate political views from market expectations—markets don’t move based on who's in office alone.
- Hedge fund selling contributed to the rapid downturn, but circuit breakers were not triggered.
- New tariffs aim to support U.S. employment and reduce reliance on China but will likely raise import prices and disrupt supply chains.
- Decoupling from China is a long-term goal, but current policy actions are more blunt than strategic.
- Trump’s unpredictable comments can swing markets dramatically, underscoring the need to focus on fundamentals over headlines.
- The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a catalyst for the market downturn, but the market was already overheated prior to 2020.
- The U.S. government may benefit from locking in lower rates on its debt, providing some relief if the economy slows
- Tariffs and market volatility may lead to long-term disruptions, affecting investments like 401(k)s, as negotiations continue.
- Gold is considered a secret bull market amid chaos, with institutional and government demand increasing.
- Bonds are not performing as strongly as in previous market downturns, indicating ongoing challenges in fixed-income markets.
- The crypto market has shown unexpected resilience despite a broader market selloff, which could be a slightly bullish indicator.
- China and the US are in a trade conflict, with the US trying to counter unfair tariffs, but this may lead to shifts in global supply chains to countries like Vietnam and India.
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners
Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast
Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast
Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast
For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/big-move-in-the-sp-701