- Media narratives often obscure the real developments happening quietly in the background.
- Stablecoins are emerging as a substitute for the dollar and could diminish banks’ central role in the financial system.
- This shift resembles the fragmented multi-currency era before the creation of the Federal Reserve.
- Recent crypto markets have been volatile, with Bitcoin showing resilience despite sharp pullbacks.
- Ray Dalio argued that real estate is a poor investment today due to its interest rate sensitivity and immobility.
- U.S. real estate markets are already showing significant price declines in several regions.
- The administration is talking up lower rates, Trump has pushed cuts, and Powell left rates unchanged at the last meeting.
- Market behavior appears disconnected from economic data, undermining the usefulness of traditional reports.
- Government statistics are viewed as unreliable, with references to Shadow Stats’ alternative takes on CPI history.
- Given data doubts, the focus should be on how markets and investor sentiment actually react.
- Seasonally, mid-August to mid-November is typically weak, and the second year of a presidency often underperforms.
- August and September have historically been the S&P 500’s weakest months, while 2025 has so far outperformed typical post-election patterns.
- Personal spending is slipping, and fast-casual chains’ same-store sales have fallen since Q4, suggesting strain.
- Housing and renovation activity looks softer versus the last five years but closer to pre-2020 norms—a reversion to the mean, not necessarily recession.
- Student loan and credit-card delinquencies are spiking, hinting at cash-flow stress that clashes with low unemployment data.
- Tariff revenues jumped from roughly $8B/month to about $29.6B/month, with companies largely absorbing costs so far.
- Money is chasing select commodities like gold, silver, and uranium, while others like lithium lag and could move with China trade shifts.
- The dollar sits mid-range historically and could sink on aggressive cuts, though today’s “broken” market dynamics muddy typical cause-and-effect.
- Despite risks, the market’s underlying tone is bullish, so a continued climb is possible on favorable policy headlines.
- Research notes humans rate AI higher when it agrees with them, suggesting systems learn to avoid conflict and may reinforce user beliefs.
Money Tree Investing
Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Douglas Heagren | Diana Perkins | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: Travis Jamison shares his journey from serial entrepreneur to full-time investing in legacy businesses, explaining that while tech is great for building, it’s risky for investing. He allocates capital into small, decades-old businesses via search funds, independent sponsors, and roll-ups, aiming for diversification, steady cash flow, and multiple expansion. Travis views AI less as a direct investment opportunity and more as a tool for operating...
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Kathleen Peddicord shares her experience living investing overseas. Her journey took her from publishing to becoming an authority on global real estate investing. She discusses why she prefers real estate over stocks while also outlining challenges such as lack of MLS systems, legal complexities, and cultural differences. Kathleen explained how to evaluate markets, avoid overpaying, plan exit strategies, and select properties with unique value rather than cookie-cutter developments. She stressed the importance of freehold title, sound property rights, and turnkey management solutions, while...
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Wall Street is selling beer, beaches, and barbecue. Want to invest? We also dove into the concerns about the reliability of government data. Investors should focus less on headline data and more on long-term directional trends, since recessions matter less to portfolios than actual corporate performance. We also talk labor markets, employment revisions, and rate-cut predictions, highlighting inconsistencies and the limited value of forecasts. Debt structures like extended auto loans and creative mortgages stress the importance of cash flow flexibility and smart loan structuring rather than...
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Philip Hoffman is here to share his journey from CPA to investing in fine art. He founded The Fine Art Group, where he advises wealthy families on art investing, valuations, lending, and education. He outlines the global art market as a $60 billion industry with only $6–10 billion considered truly investable, highlights the risks and pitfalls of treating art as an asset class without expert guidance, and shares cautionary tales of investors losing millions by buying discounted works without due diligence, contrasted with success stories where expertise and timing led to strong returns. We...
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Mark Flickinger shares his journey from engineering and building small businesses to working in private market investing at BIP Capital, where he helps both entrepreneurs and high-net-worth investors achieve their goals. He explains that private markets have grown as many high-quality companies remain private longer, creating opportunities for alpha that are less available in public markets, especially as IPO thresholds have risen. Flickinger highlights trends in alternatives, noting that while AI attracts attention, compelling private businesses can now be accessed at lower entry costs. We...
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It looks like the market is going on vacation! Well I am too. Today we talk everything from vacation plans to shifting markets. We also cover recent crypto volatility, the resilience of Bitcoin, and concerns over MicroStrategy’s stock dilution strategy, framing dips as potential buying opportunities within broader trends. We chat on quirky social trends in China, like “pretend to work” jobs for unemployed youth, and highlight Ray Dalio’s view that real estate is a poor investment in today’s environment with recent price drops accorss the U.S. Today we discuss... Douglas Heagren | ...
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Anders Inset is here to share on this new work The Singularity Paradox. He shares his journey from capitalist and athlete to author and shares the concept of the technological singularity and the associated risks of creating godlike, self-improving machines without fully understanding their implications. He argues for developing “artificially human intelligence” rooted in human biology to preserve humanity in the face of exponential technological growth. The discussion covers the profound transformations such advancements could bring, from curing diseases and achieving abundant energy to...
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Douglas Heagren | Follow on Facebook: Follow LinkedIn: Follow on Twitter/X: For more information, visit the show notes at
info_outlineIt looks like the market is going on vacation! Well I am too. Today we talk everything from vacation plans to shifting markets. We also cover recent crypto volatility, the resilience of Bitcoin, and concerns over MicroStrategy’s stock dilution strategy, framing dips as potential buying opportunities within broader trends. We chat on quirky social trends in China, like “pretend to work” jobs for unemployed youth, and highlight Ray Dalio’s view that real estate is a poor investment in today’s environment with recent price drops accorss the U.S. Today we discuss...
Today's Panelists:
Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners
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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/market-is-going-on-vacation-739