The Week Ahead - Flash PMIs, UK Public Sector Borrowing and Tokyo CPI
Release Date: 10/18/2024
The Week Ahead – Tariffs Kick In; Europe Kicks Off With Fiscal Easing
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Markets have seen sizable moves as the US administration ramped up tariffs and Germany announced a huge fiscal package. (02:30) With US tariffs hitting last week, we discuss what is actually in place, what is likely to come and the impact on the US, China and Europe. (15:15) Germany’s fiscal stimulus is having a major market impact and should meaningfully raise growth, inflation and ECB expectations. (20:15) We also preview next week’s inflation data out of the US and China.
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The Week Ahead – China To The Rescue?
Nomura – The Week Ahead
It’s a big week for China with all eyes on the National People’s Congress (NPC), where fiscal measures could be announced. We outline our expectations and whether the NPC could potentially provide a lift in market sentiment. In the US, we preview the February employment report and its impact on Fed policy, and digest the latest announcements on tariffs. In Europe, we discuss our expectations of the ECB, where we go from here after the German elections and what is Europe’s next move around the peace deal. Chapters: US (02:10), Europe (07:40), Asia (15:45).
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The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Market sentiment seems to be holding in pretty well as this week comes to a close. Equity markets are generally holding up at healthy levels, credit spreads remain pretty tight, and commodity currencies, which are often seen as global growth sensitive and risk barometers, are holding up at higher levels. This week in the US, our focus will be on core PCE inflation and any new Trump or tariff developments. In Europe, we’ll be watching the German election fallout, along with the latest inflation readings. Then it’s the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Korea and Thailand, and...
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The Week Ahead – Give Peace A Chance?
Nomura – The Week Ahead
Early signs of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal are boosting market optimism, with EUR/USD trading up towards its highest level since late-January and European equities continuing to surge. We discuss what this might mean for the euro area outlook. This positivity is, however, still being partially offset by the ongoing threat of US tariffs and by sticky inflation data in the US. We also preview next week’s central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia. Chapters: Europe (02:02), Asia (07:32), US (11:38).
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The Week Ahead – Not Tariffic
Nomura – The Week Ahead
This past week began with the news that Mexico and Canada had secured a temporary reprieve from US tariffs. However, we see higher tariffs as highly likely. This week also brought us stronger-than-expected earnings data in Japan. Looking ahead, in the US our focus will be on any further tariff news, the January CPI and Fed-speak. In Europe, we’ll be watching out for the latest activity readings, and ECB and BOE speakers, as well as a central bank meeting in the Philippines. Chapters: US (01:49), Europe (06:22), Asia (10:31).
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The Week Ahead – Snaky Ways
Nomura – The Week Ahead
It’s been another big week, with the news on DeepSeek rattling global equity markets, led by the tech sector. The Fed’s on-hold decision came and went as expected, however we have made an important change to our Fed forecasts. Coming up, the US employment report will be key to watch, alongside hints on whether tariffs will soon be implemented. Elsewhere, we have the BOE decision where a cut is widely expected, while activity data in Europe could again remain weak. In Asia, the spotlight is on India with a likely pivotal central bank decision on tap, just a few days after the...
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The Week Ahead – One Week In
Nomura – The Week Ahead
We are only a few days into President Trump’s new term, but already there has been a lot of action. Over 25 executive orders have been signed, and we discuss what these might mean for the macro economic outlook. In Europe, we look at the likely 25bp cut by the ECB, signs of short-term positivity in the region and the possible response to Trump’s policies. Finally, we focus on how the latest developments impact China and what policy response, if any, is on its way. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (07:31), Asia (10:32).
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The Week Ahead – Inauguration Sensation
Nomura – The Week Ahead
We’ve had a very busy start to the year and the excitement is likely to continue with the focus on Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday 20th January. In this episode, we outline what policy announcements to expect in the early part of Trump’s second term, and how Asian economies may respond. In Europe we will be digging into recent UK market volatility and prospects for the labour market. And last but certainly not least, we preview the Bank of Japan decision, where we expect a 25bp hike. Chapters: Markets (01:08) US (02:11), Asia (09:31), Europe (12:56), Japan (18:04).
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The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies
Nomura – The Week Ahead
The week ahead promises to be another eventful one, with key CPI data in the US and the UK. We also have tier-1 data in China and a couple of central bank decisions in Asia. Recent comments from President-elect Trump particularly on tariffs, could provide some hints of what’s to come as we approach his inauguration. We will close with a special segment focusing on the outlook for Asian currencies, which have been facing significant pressures recently and are therefore in the spotlight. Chapters: US (01:35), Europe (07:11), Asia (11:18), Asia FX (18:37).
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The Week Ahead – Happy New Year?
Nomura – The Week Ahead
This year could be all about Trump, tariffs, and potentially turbulence. In this episode, we discuss our recently published annual outlooks and shine a spotlight on the key data and events over the coming week. In the US, our focus will be on the services ISM and payrolls reports. In Europe, CPI and final December PMI data will be released. Then it's the latest from Asia, with Japan earnings, China loan data, and CPI reports from across the region. Chapters: US (03:46), Europe (09:10), Asia (14:05).
info_outlineIn this episode, we discuss the upcoming US elections, and how US economic sentiment has been holding up in the second half of the year. In Europe, the focus next week will be on flash PMIs, especially after the ECB noted that they have seen downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Could UK public sector borrowing numbers change the game for the UK budget? In Asia, the focus is on Japan where we have crucial inflation data for October.
Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (08:11), Asia (10:24)