Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment

Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment

Insights from Paul Fiorilla, Director of U.S. Research at Yardi Matrix

 

Paul Fiorilla offers a data-driven view of today’s commercial real estate (CRE) landscape using the vast resources he has at his disposal at Yardi.

 

While market sentiment may be growing more optimistic, Fiorilla acknowledges investors should separate short-term mood from long-term fundamentals. His perspective, rooted in close analysis of multifamily data and macro conditions, is both pragmatic and cautionary: yes, there’s capital on the sidelines and deals are getting done but many investors may be misreading the durability of recent tailwinds and underestimating latent risks.

 

Short-Term Confidence, Long-Term Industry

 

Real estate is an inherently long-term, illiquid asset class yet, much of the current market behavior appears to be anchored in short-term confidence (and short term memories). That dissonance should give investors pause. While macroeconomic shocks like tariffs, interest rate hikes, and political uncertainty do not immediately register in quarterly CRE data, their effects compound over time.

 

Investor sentiment, meanwhile, remains buoyant. Debt markets have resumed activity, stock indices are back near prior highs, and many assume the worst is behind us. But the lagging nature of real estate data means we're still months away from fully seeing the impacts of recent fiscal and geopolitical developments.

 

Multifamily Fundamentals: A Shifting Landscape

 

Fiorilla addresses the fundamentals of the multifamily sector, noting that demand has remained strong in recent years, but the distribution of that demand is shifting. Rent growth is no longer universal. Over the past 15 months, metros in the Midwest and Northeast, markets like Chicago and New York, have consistently posted moderate, steady rent growth. In contrast, high-growth Sunbelt cities such as Austin, Atlanta, Nashville, and Salt Lake City are experiencing flat to negative rent trends.

 

What’s driving this bifurcation is primarily supply. In oversupplied markets, absorption hasn’t kept pace with new deliveries. Despite a sharp national decline in starts, down approximately 40% year-over-year, the existing pipeline remains heavy. Nationally, over 1.2 million units are either in lease-up or under construction. In high-growth markets, deliveries will continue at elevated levels for the next several years. Some cities may see 12–15% added to their multifamily inventory by 2027.

 

Fiorilla underscores that while national numbers suggest a tapering of supply, the local realities are more complex. Markets that arguably need more housing, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago for example, are seeing similar slowdowns in new development as oversaturated markets. The result is a continued misalignment between where capital is building and where it’s most needed.

 

The Waning Tailwinds of Demand

 

Fiorilla also points to softening demand drivers that may soon undermine current assumptions. Over the past several years, demand has been supported by several powerful tailwinds: robust job growth, high immigration, and pandemic-era trends such as household formation and suburban relocation. But these are now tapering.

 

Net immigration, while still meaningful, is slowing. Job growth has begun to decelerate. Moreover, federal employment cuts and delays in private-sector hiring – driven by political and fiscal uncertainty – are contributing to a weakening outlook for household formation. These are not necessarily signs of imminent distress, but they do suggest that the extraordinary absorption rates of 2021–2022 will be difficult to sustain.

 

As Fiorilla puts it, “the risks are to the downside.” He’s not forecasting a collapse but cautions against overreliance on recent performance when underwriting future deals, particularly in light of ongoing supply pressure.

 

Policy Risk and the Fragility of Subsidized Housing

 

Among the more underappreciated risks in the market, Fiorilla emphasizes policy risk, especially in affordable and subsidized housing. He notes that while programs like LIHTC and Opportunity Zones appear safe, others such as Section 8 are under pressure.

 

Of particular concern are proposals to convert these programs into state-administered block grants. While this may seem like a technocratic shift, it would represent a material change for property owners. Federal guarantees would be replaced by varying state-level funding regimes, increasing payment risk and reducing the predictability that underpins underwriting in the subsidized housing sector. For owners reliant on these programs, even modest payment disruptions could be “catastrophic,” he notes.

 

Interest Rate Volatility: The Real Pain Point

 

Turning to capital markets, Fiorilla distinguishes between the level of interest rates and the pace at which they change. Today’s rates, he argues, are not historically high. Pre-GFC, rates were often at similar levels. What’s destabilizing is the speed of change. A sharp increase from near-zero to 4–5% within a single year has impaired refinancing feasibility and upended underwriting assumptions.

 

This volatility, not the rates themselves, has created most of the current distress. Borrowers facing refinancing at double or triple the prior coupon are under strain. And yet, transaction activity persists, with many deals still pricing at thin or even negative leverage. Why? Because the #1 driver of compressed cap rates is investor confidence in future cash flows. The belief that rents will continue to rise justifies aggressive pricing – until it doesn’t.

 

This mindset echoes pre-GFC sentiment, where rent growth was taken as a given. Fiorilla is quick to clarify that today’s market is not nearly as reckless. Still, elevated pricing in an environment of cooling fundamentals could leave investors dangerously exposed to even mild shocks.

 

Quiet Distress and the Maturity Wall

 

Another issue masked by short-term optimism is the growing volume of loan maturities. These include both regularly scheduled maturities and loans previously extended during 2021–2023 that are now reaching their end.

 

Fiorilla notes that many of these are being addressed quietly. Lenders, reluctant to force asset sales, are working with borrowers on a case-by-case basis. The result: distress is real, but it’s largely invisible. There’s little evidence of forced portfolio liquidations or widespread delinquencies – yet.

 

The availability of capital, particularly for multifamily, is helping to buffer these pressures. There’s no shortage of dry powder. But absent a sharp rate reversal or improved clarity from policymakers, the sector could see a slow bleed of marginal deals rather than a systemic reset.

 

Underappreciated Geopolitical Risk

 

One of the most thought-provoking parts of the conversation concerns CRE’s growing sensitivity to global and political dynamics. This is a structural change. The U.S. has long benefited from its role as a stable, rule-of-law jurisdiction. But shifts in foreign policy, trade restrictions, and political dysfunction are beginning to weigh on foreign investment.

 

Declining Canadian cross-border investment and tighter restrictions on visa travel are, in part, evidence of this shift. These aren’t headline stories but they are meaningful. If the U.S. loses its perception as a reliable haven for capital, CRE pricing could face downward pressure from shrinking foreign demand. This is a long-term trend worth monitoring closely, not a transitory blip.

 

What He’s Watching

 

When asked what indicators he watches most closely, Fiorilla points to three primary metrics:

1. Occupancy Rates – Particularly in high-supply markets. Stabilized occupancy below 94% would be an early warning sign.
2. Absorption Trends – A sustained drop in household formation or leasing activity could signal weakening demand.
3. Employment Data – Job losses, especially if broad-based, would ripple into rent growth and occupancy.

He also monitors transaction volume as a proxy for investor confidence. If deal flow freezes again, that would signal a recalibration of forward expectations.

 

Final Reflection

 

While Fiorilla resists giving investment advice, his closing thoughts reflect a conservative posture. He’s not sitting on the sidelines entirely but he’s not rushing in either. Caution, portfolio balance, and realistic expectations are the guiding principles.

 

For CRE professionals, this conversation is a reminder to look past sentiment and dig into the data and the fundamentals: local supply pipelines, policy shifts, interest rate trends, and the fragility of assumptions underpinning future rent growth. The macro backdrop is far from stable and the margin for error, even in multifamily, may be thinner than it appears.

 

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In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.

 

With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. 

 

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