PDX Real Estate EP169: Why Portland’s Housing Market Is Starting to Move Again

The Portland real estate market is waking up, and it doesn’t feel like a typical January.

In this episode of the Portland Real Estate Podcast, Steve Nassar and Joe Fustolo break down why buyer and seller activity is already showing spring-like momentum, even as closings lag behind the buzz.

You’ll hear why mortgage rates hovering in the low sixes are quietly restoring buying power, how a one-percent rate drop can feel like a double-digit price cut, and why optimism for March, April, and May is building beneath the surface.

Steve and Joe unpack what a “slow and steady” recovery really looks like after three historically weak years for transaction volume and why consistency, not a sudden surge, may define 2026.

They also dive into industry stats showing that over 70 percent of licensed agents closed zero deals, what that means for consumers, and why experience matters more than ever in a tightening field.

Expect candid talk about the growing divide between healthy residential homes and the ongoing struggles of condos and HOAs, especially in downtown Portland, where high fees, special assessments, and stalled projects continue to reshape buyer behavior.

From cash buyers returning to financing, to homeowners loosening their golden handcuffs, to life events that force movement regardless of the market, this conversation connects the data to what people are actually doing right now.

If you want a grounded, insider look at where the Portland market truly stands and where it’s quietly heading next, this episode delivers the context, clarity, and real-world insight you won’t get from headlines alone.

 

Key Takeaways

Early 2026 activity feels unusually strong for January, with listing appointments, buyer interest, and open houses resembling spring conditions even as escrows lag.

Mortgage rates in the low sixes are restoring buying power, with a one-percent drop functioning like a 10–12% price reduction from a buyer’s perspective.

After three historically weak years for transaction volume, 2026 is shaping up as a year of gradual improvement rather than a dramatic rebound.

Sellers have largely adjusted expectations following the 2023–2025 correction, helping the market move toward a more balanced absorption rate.

Cash buyers dominated recent years, but financing is returning as the gap between ultra-low legacy rates and today’s rates narrows.

Homeowners once held back by “golden handcuff” rates are beginning to move again due to life changes, downsizing, and mobility needs.

Real estate decisions are increasingly driven by necessity rather than speculation, making timing life more important than timing the market.

Over 70% of licensed Realtors closed zero transactions, highlighting a widening gap between full-time professionals and part-time or inactive agents.

Condos and HOA-driven properties remain high-risk, particularly in downtown Portland, due to rising dues, insurance challenges, special assessments, and urban conditions.

Single-family residential homes continue to outperform condos, especially outside the downtown core.

The Ritz-Carlton condo project illustrates how pricing, timing, and market sentiment can dramatically affect luxury developments.

Oregon Senate Bill 426 raises new concerns by making homeowners jointly liable for unpaid contractor wages, increasing the importance of contractor due diligence.

The hosts expect steady improvement through 2026, with consistency, experience, and ethical practices rewarded as the market stabilizes.

 

Connect with Joe

Soldera Properties

Joe on LinkedIn

 

Connect with Steve

Steve’s Team at Premiere Property Group

Steve on LinkedIn

 

Listen to The Portland Real Estate Podcast on:

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