Wall Street Meet Socialism
The Rate Guy
On this episod of The Rate Guy we discuss Jobs, Inflation, GDP and what options traders are flocking to at the moment and why.
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The Uncertainty Bends Continue
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025.
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What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months)
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.
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Jobs, Schmobs
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn’t reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up.
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The Tail That Wagged The Dog
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the mini-revolt happening at the long end of the curve, how tariffs are effecting the deficit and how sometimes the best cure for inflation is inflation.
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The Lingering Effects of Trust Issues
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole.
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Fed Meeting Primer
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin? We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like this before, making it even more unpredictable. Mohammed El-Erian said it in the nicest way possible, "Markets are underestimating the depth and duration of this trade reset.” If you want to see the graphs referenced, you can see this week's...
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Trump Blink Counter : 2 and Special Guest Interview with J Mo
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed.
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WTF is a Basis Trade Unwind?
The Rate Guy
On this episode of The Rate Guys we talk about how last week the 10 Year Treasury spiked, the dollar slipped, and headlines claim the world is ditching the U.S. JP breaks down what really happened — and why it’s probably not about deficits or de-dollarization. From CPI cooling to basis swap unwinds, it was one of the wildest weeks of JP’s career. He explains the chaos, calls out the hype, and reminds us: reducing exposure isn’t the same as betting against the U.S. To check out the graphs referenced - check out the
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Other Than That, How Was the Play Mrs. Lincoln?
The Rate Guy
This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June.
info_outlineWe're baaaaack! On this week’s episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can’t take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down.
Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs report. Is inflation really making a comeback? Can strong GDP calm the markets? And what’s the Fed's next move?
Plus, highlights from our Iceland adventure—stunning waterfalls, elusive northern lights, and why the Blue Lagoon left us seriously underwhelmed.
To see a few shots from our trip check out the Pensford Newsletter.