Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections
Star Spangled Gamblers
Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina. 1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview begins 6:06: Massa's backround 7:43: Massa's political baggage 8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction 9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections 11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round? 12:49: Milei's shortcomings 14:34: Summary of first round results 15:38:...
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Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia
Star Spangled Gamblers
Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket. 3:54: Interview with Harrison begins 5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights? 7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan 7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan 12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict 14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia 15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading 17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia? 18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan...
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Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race
Star Spangled Gamblers
On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt. 3:20: Main segment begins 4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse 6:51: Emerson polling 8:20: Current market prices 12:31: The role of national politics 14:16: Racial politics 17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge 23:36: Polling in...
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A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race
Star Spangled Gamblers
3-Part Episode — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events Timestamps 4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins 4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers 7:14: Kentucky colonels 9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's...
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Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC
Star Spangled Gamblers
After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts. Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision. 0:00: Introduction begins 2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation 3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency 5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community 7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 13:03:...
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Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community
Star Spangled Gamblers
After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit 3:25: Interview begins 4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy 7:00: Richard responds to those in the...
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Dispatches from the Iowa Caucuses
Star Spangled Gamblers
Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses. Timestamps 3:12: Interview begins 3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries? 5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis 6:06: Trump's appearance 6:28: Ramaswamy rapping 7:30: DeSantis's prospects 23:40: Iowa evangelicals 26:23: DeSantis's ground game 31:38: Longshot candidates and nonstarters in Iowa 35:18: Odds of a Trump second place in Iowa 37:28: Ramaswamy supporters 38:06: Hatred...
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Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues. Timestamps: 0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG 10:23: Who is Hanania? 15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania 19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community? 23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism 29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing 32:22:...
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How a Government Shutdown Will Likely Be Averted
Star Spangled Gamblers
Intro: Pratik Chougule Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets 1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest Conference 5:46: Zubby on the possibility of a government shutdown 30:02: Mick Bransfield on David...
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Will Trump Show Up to Any Debate This Year?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate Timestamps 0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess 1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate 2:59: Political betting...
info_outlineIntro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate
Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling.
Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate
Timestamps
0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess
1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate
2:59: Political betting insights from the first Republican debate
10:32: Friess's interest in political gambling
13:55: Why betting markets missed the 2022 midterms
21:05: Policymaking community's skepticism of political gambling
39:17: Factors in whether Trump will show up to a Republican debate