Star Spangled Gamblers
The news, as told by the world's most profitable political gamblers. This podcast searches for the truth -- because that's what pays.
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UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor
07/03/2024
UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor
Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats. Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets Timestamps 0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi 1:53: Pratik introduces segment with Pickles 5:19: Segment with Kedjanyi begins 6:27: Reform Party's launch 11:28: Farage's odds of election 15:02: Farage's impact in the next government 19:38: First past the post 25:03: The Labour Party's ideology 25:46: How Farage could impact the Tories 26:42: Reform will not be the opposition 28:08: How many seats for Labour 29:39: What Kedjanyi learned from traveling around the country 33:19: Potential surprises 36:27: Which way will polling miss go? 39:07: Segment with Pickles begins Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on the UK elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
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Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP
07/01/2024
Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP
Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contracts Part III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) provides advice on how to follow the UK elections and maintain an edge in these markets Part IV: Saul Munn (@saulmunn) explains the importance of capital in building the forecasting community Timestamps 0:11: Pratik introduces segment on J.D. Vance 0:46: Pratik introduces segment with Mick Bransfield 1:30: Pratik introduces segment with Anthony Pickles 2:13: Pratik introduces segment with Saul Munn 5:02: Vance segment begins 5:14: Chan's views on Vance 6:33: Freeman's analysis on Vance 8:34: Pratik's analysis on Vance 11:07: Segment with Bransfield begins 18:11: Libertarians in CFTC comment period 28:09: Segment with Pickles begins 33:05: Segment with Munn begins 35:24: Social capital 41:33: Weak ties 44:09: Creating value Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Bet on Trump's VP selection at Polymarket Optic Forecasting: https://www.opticforecasting.com/
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Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory
06/25/2024
Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory
Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets. Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections 2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds 3:17: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation 5:55: Segment on UK elections begins 6:12: Anthony's background 8:17: Keir Starmer's background 10:16: Starmer's odds of becoming Prime Minister 11:01: How many seats Conservatives and Labour will win 22:04: Why Sunak and the Conservatives are unlikely to make a comeback 28:37: Why Sunak called an early election 30:54: Labour seat totals 34:03: Right-wing bias in the markets? 36:59: Discussion of class politics 39:27: Segment with Chan begins 39:46: VP odds on Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy 40:48: "Juice" in sportsbooks 41:46: Regulation segment begins 42:56: Incentives in the current CFTC rulemaking 45:00: Need for a counter-lobby on event contracts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at Polymarket.com
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Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics
06/17/2024
Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics
3-Part Episode Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics. Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Codex Ten forecasting competition. Part III: Saul Munn explains how to organize the forecasting community 0:11: Pratik introduces VP segment 0:26: Pratik introduces Campbell segment 1:05: Pratik introduces Munn segment 4:09: VP segment begins 8:43: 2028 considerations 18:13: Campbell segment begins 22:55: Expertise and prediction 28:10: Interview with Munn begins 28:45: The importance of in-person events 29:00: Manifest's origins 30:46: The political gambling community 32:11: Transitioning from an online community 34:04: How to organize the forecasting community 36:05: University clubs 37:06: Reluctance to organize events 38:15: EA Global 40:59: Low bar to community-building Bet on who Trump will select as his running mate at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com. SUPPORT US: Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers
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How Trump Will Select His VP
06/06/2024
How Trump Will Select His VP
Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection 1:44: Manifest 2024 7:18: Episode on VP nomination begins 7:43: What are SSG Title Belt Championships? 9:37: How Ben Freeman won the SSG Title Belt 11:56: Ben's proposed side bet on Trump's VP selection 13:36: Alex Chan's background 15:38: OpenBet/DonBest 19:26: How Alex got into political gambling 20:49: Political nerds vs. professional gamblers 22:36: Ben and Alex negotiate theie side bet 27:09: How Trump will select his VP 30:10: Loyalty considerations 32:21: Trump's strength in GOP 34:48: Will Trump penalize those who ran against him? 35:32: When will Trump announce the pick? 36:38: How deep is Trump's VP bench? 40:09: Has Trump already decided? Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.
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CFTC Cracks Down on Election Contracts
06/03/2024
CFTC Cracks Down on Election Contracts
The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins 8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue 10:14: What is rulemaking? 11:24: Behnam's statement 11:48: Concerns about CFTC staff time on election contracts 14:25: Conflict of interest accusations against Kristin Johnson 17:34: Senator Tommy Tuberville's involvement 20:02: Goldsmith-Romero's views 25:13: Mersinger's dissent 27:38: Pham's dissent 31:10: Discord at the CFTC 32:01: Questions about CFTC enforcement 35:41: CFTC's power and resources 37:58: Behnam's political ambition 41:06: Pratik's critique of Mersinger's dissent 45:12: Pratik's impressions from attending CFTC meeting in person Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at . Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.
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Rishi Sunak's Political Future
05/20/2024
Rishi Sunak's Political Future
London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held 27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election 31:04: Impact of U.S. elections on UK election timing 34:55: Will Sunak be out before next elections? 39:36: Will Sunak quit? 40:21: Could Sunak be pushed out by his party? Trade on Sunak and the next UK elections at Polymarket.com: Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
05/09/2024
Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos 6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process 8:33: Best Market 9:27: Room temperature superconductor 10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market 11:23: Best Trade 11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market 12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1 12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei 13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song 13:12: Domer debt limit profits 13:17: Worst Trade 14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count 14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president 15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement 15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy 17:21: Best Shitposter 19:06: Domer's shitposting 19:56: RelayThief's shitposting 20:44: Rookie of the Year 21:12: Naman Mehndiratta 22:39: Manifold Markets 23:20: Betting platforms 23:48: TheWinner 25:29: Trader of the Year 25:46: ANoland 26:07: Gaeten Dugas 27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger) 28:33: Doug Campbell 29:05: Worst Pump 31:04: Kalshi election contracts 31:15: Hamas control of Gaza 32:00: Trump third indictment 32:44: Semiconductor yes holders 33:40: RFK Democratic nominee 33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year 34:22: Best News Source 34:41: Politico Punchbowl 35:00: PredictIt comments 35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI 35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips 37:29: CSP Discord 38:36: Service to Political Gambling 38:36: PredictIt 39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck 39:56: Government Shutdown 40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump" 41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles 42:19: submarine debris 43:04: Trump indictment on March 31 43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages 44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute 44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack 45:59: Postscript 46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination 47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market at polymarket.com Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
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When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
04/15/2024
When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling 9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics? 11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor 16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift 16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real? 19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip 20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline 24:34: Swift's past relationships 27:57: The Eras Tour 31:23: Kelce's public statements 32:02: Do they want kids? 35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market 40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year? 44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topics SUPPORT US Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL Twitter: TikTok: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjZUfG2_5fqJHfXGtjsayww VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com
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Stalemate in Ukraine
03/22/2024
Stalemate in Ukraine
Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia 1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest 1:32: Manifest conference 2024 4:33: Interview begins 5:17: High-level update on the war 13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war 14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine 18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word 19:21: Sanctions against Russia 22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated 24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict 25:14: Impact of a Trump victory 26:02: Western aid to Ukraine 28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office 29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation 31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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The Emerging Forecasting Community
03/06/2024
The Emerging Forecasting Community
Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick. In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets. 0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn 1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest 1:56: Manifest Conference 2024 3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market 4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination 5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young 9:03: Interview with Saul begins 9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space 11:00: Optic forecasting clubs 12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community 13:25: Manifest Conference 13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community 14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community? 14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community 16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting 19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community 20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community 21:18: Communities interested in forecasting 21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting 24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting 28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins 28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds 29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds 30:05: Swing state VP contenders 31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins 31:59: Taxing bad predictions 33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets 34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets 40:12: Hedge funds and AI
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The Women Who Might Be Trump's VP
02/16/2024
The Women Who Might Be Trump's VP
Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee 3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment 4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo 8:28: Darling interview begins 10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP 11:49: Noem's history with Trump 15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey Lewandowski 16:26: Odds Trump will pick a woman running mate 17:26: The Republican Party's role in the VP selection 18:32: Trump's perspective on loyalty 21:45: Would Noem accept the VP nomination? 22:06: History of people rejecting offers to be VP 22:50: What price to pay for Noem yes shares 24:29: Why Haley is trading so high 31:42: Elise Stefanik's odds 33:57: Bransfield segment begins 39:03: Signs PredictIt will not pursue a constitutional challenge Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
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How Bad Is Trump's Health?
02/08/2024
How Bad Is Trump's Health?
Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor 4:17: Interview begins 5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease 6:32: Trump's physique 10:12: Trump's psychology 11:05: Note from Trump's doctor 13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition? 15:06: Trump's genetics 17:46: Is weight protective in old age? 21:00: Trump's cognitive decline 25:29: Trump's OCD 27:00: Trump's purpose in life 29:48: How Trump's legal issues could impact his health 35:00: How to trade on Trump's health 39:52: What to look for to assess Trump's health Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Donate to Star Spangled Gamblers via PayPal https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=9Q6KS5JPLNRRY
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Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second in Iowa
01/10/2024
Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second in Iowa
While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain. Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos. 0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment 1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling 4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections 7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins 8:15: What are SSG title belt challenges 9:20: Ben Freeman on why DeSantis is underpriced for second place in Iowa 12:20: The Winner on why DeSantis isn't likely to place second 13:38: Negotiating the belt challenge 14:10: Pratik's view on why DeSantis has the edge 15:30: Haley's feminism 17:07: Populism and wave politics 18:14: What is Haley's message? 28:30: Haley's lack of endorsements 37:30: Democratic presidential primary Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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AI Can't Beat the Math Nerds (Yet)
01/08/2024
AI Can't Beat the Math Nerds (Yet)
Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry 6:18: AI and effective altruism 13:25: What exactly is AI and what are its capabilities? 30:49: Polymarket's AI Math Olympiad Prize market Follow us on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Why Joe Biden's Health Concerns Are Overstated
12/31/2023
Why Joe Biden's Health Concerns Are Overstated
Four Part Episode Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets Timestamps 5:08: Interview with Lucas begins 6:39: Biden's cognitive decline 8:49: Biden's physical health 10:20: Biden's aneurysms 13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign 15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury 18:45: How to trade on Biden's health on Polymarket 20:46: Segment on Ramaswamy begins 21:46: Ben Freeman on fading the online candidate 23:22: Segment on CFTC's Kalshi decision begins 24:21: Commissioner Mersinger's dissent 25:54: State laws on political betting 27:40: Why the CFTC is not main the adversary of political betting 28:14: Legality of the Iowa Electronic Markets 29:47: Kalshi's tried to find a shortcut 30:50: Excerpt of Chougule's speech on black markets 32:22: Segment with Nathan Young begins 32:37: How religion made Young interested in prediction markets 33:10: Forecasters were ahead of the curve on COVID 34:02: Similarities between the rationality and religious communities 38:05: Religious attitudes toward gambling in the UK 40:56: America's religious opposition to political betting Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.
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Can DeSantis Make a Comeback?
12/22/2023
Can DeSantis Make a Comeback?
Three-Part Episode In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback. In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream. In Part III, Mick Bransfield provides theories on why Kalshi pressed ahead with election contracts at the CFTC knowing it didn't have the votes. Timestamps 4:30: Interview with Ben Freeman and The Winner begins 7:49: DeSantis's mannerisms 12:36: Is DeSantis deferring too much to advisors 15:03: Missed opportunities in the DeSantis-Newsom debate 18:42: Market prices on DeSantis and Nikki Haley 25:13: Trump's legal problems 27:23: Can Haley get through the Republican primaries? 30:16: Interview with Friess begins 34:46: Pratik's view on legalizing political betting at the state level 37:19: Interview with Bransfield begins 43:12: Incentives created by Kalshi's investors SUPPORT US: Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com
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A Mitch McConnell Health Cover-up?
12/01/2023
A Mitch McConnell Health Cover-up?
Three-part episode: (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition? (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions (3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger) sounds the alarm on the opposition of U.S. Senators to political betting Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 5:01: Interview with Lucas begins 5:21: How political betting led to Lucas being swatted 8:07: How Lucas got into political betting 9:36: Improvements in political betting websites 10:13: Lucas's medical background 13:20: Polymarket's market on whether Mitch McConnell will resign by the end of the year 13:36: McConnell's freezing episodes 19:58: What is a seizure? 23:29: Did McConnell have a stroke? 24:02: Did the Congressional physician mislead the public about McConnell's condition? 26:41: The state of McConnell's health 29:59: Medications McConnell might be on right now 31:18: How the longshot could win on Polymarket 34:41: Segment with Rule3O3 begins 37:11: Segment with Jonathan Zubkoff begins Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections
11/18/2023
Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections
Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina. 1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview begins 6:06: Massa's backround 7:43: Massa's political baggage 8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction 9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections 11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round? 12:49: Milei's shortcomings 14:34: Summary of first round results 15:38: Why so much market volatility? 18:29: How much of Patricia Bullrich's support will go to Milei? 19:57: Argentina's economy 25:41: Milei's extremist statements 27:54: How foreign investors are seeing the election 29:19: Massa overperformed the polls 32:25: Polling 34:52: Ian's predictions and advice 35:50: Pratik's argument for buying Massa 39:18: Stock prices of Milei's former employer 40:58: Implications of a Milei victory for political betting 42:27: Recent elections in South America Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
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Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia
11/14/2023
Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia
Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket. 3:54: Interview with Harrison begins 5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights? 7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan 7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan 12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict 14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia 15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading 17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia? 18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia 20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion? 22:08: Will the West stop a war? 24:12: Odds of an invasion 27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach 29:57: How rogue is Aliyev? 33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan 35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment? 36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market 38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year? Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Join Star Spangled Gamblers on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers/posts
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Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race
11/07/2023
Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race
On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt. 3:20: Main segment begins 4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse 6:51: Emerson polling 8:20: Current market prices 12:31: The role of national politics 14:16: Racial politics 17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge 23:36: Polling in Kentucky 24:30: Fundraising 25:25: Indicators pointing to a Beshear win 28:30: Limited national attention 31:10: Kentucky governors races as national bellweathers 35:36: Pratik summarizes the discussion 37:15: TheWinner's final margin prediction 37:58: Potential impact of the war in Israel Trade on Polymarket here: Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers
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A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race
10/30/2023
A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race
3-Part Episode — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events Timestamps 4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins 4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers 7:14: Kentucky colonels 9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race? 15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron? 18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch 21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019 22:14: Cameron's appeal 23:26: Background on KY politics 25:27: Partisan politics in KY 26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry 27:42: Davies County 28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket 30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi 34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets 36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events Show Notes — Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule
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Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC
10/28/2023
Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC
After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts. Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision. 0:00: Introduction begins 2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation 3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency 5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community 7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 13:03: Interview with Mick begins 15:18: Background on the latest 30-day comment period 16:40: Why the CFTC received a flood of comments 17:46: Were the anti-Kalshi comments AI-generated? 18:10: Public Citizen 20:57: Better Markets 21:55: Letter from Representatives John Sarbanes and Jamie Raskin 22:55: Center for American Progress 25:09: Are prediction markets becoming a partisan football? 31:11: Errors and poor analysis in the anti-Kalshi letters 33:41: Kalshi's response 46:40: Why Pratik lost confidence in Kalshi's regulatory approach Links: Mick Bransfield's website: Coalition for Political Forecasting: Coalition for Political Forecasting comment to CFTC: http://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/coalition-for-political-forecasting-response-to-cftcs-request-for-public-comments-on-questions-related-to-kalshis-self-certified-congressional-control-contracts/
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Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community
10/21/2023
Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community
After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit 3:25: Interview begins 4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy 7:00: Richard responds to those in the forecasting community who want to cancel him 8:12: How cancel culture is changing 10:13: Manifest Conference 11:12: Market-based responses to cancel culture 14:27: GOP nominee odds 15:56: Ramaswamy's views on prediction markets 17:50: PredictIt lawsuit against the CFTC 20:31: Conservative legal movement 32:20: Reasons why election markets became partisan 33:01: Political implications of Trump's legal problems 34:55: Hanania responds to haters and calls for open-mindedness 36:11: Incentives for political gambling versus punditry 40:11: Pratik plugs Origins of Woke
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Dispatches from the Iowa Caucuses
10/08/2023
Dispatches from the Iowa Caucuses
Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses. Timestamps 3:12: Interview begins 3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries? 5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis 6:06: Trump's appearance 6:28: Ramaswamy rapping 7:30: DeSantis's prospects 23:40: Iowa evangelicals 26:23: DeSantis's ground game 31:38: Longshot candidates and nonstarters in Iowa 35:18: Odds of a Trump second place in Iowa 37:28: Ramaswamy supporters 38:06: Hatred of Pence 39:08: Freeman's post-interview notes
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Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community?
09/15/2023
Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community?
Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues. Timestamps: 0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG 10:23: Who is Hanania? 15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania 19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community? 23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism 29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing 32:22: Political betting as a solution to political polarization 33:52: OutsideContextProblem's criticism of Hanania as a troll 36:46: Rob Henderson's defense of Hanania 38:27: Oliver Habryka's proposed standard for canceling Hanania 40:45: Why Aella isn't canceled 43:47: David Manheim's critique on Hanania making people feel unwelcome 45:05: Ezra Brody's question on engaging "gross people"
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How a Government Shutdown Will Likely Be Averted
09/07/2023
How a Government Shutdown Will Likely Be Averted
Intro: Pratik Chougule Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets 1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest Conference 5:46: Zubby on the possibility of a government shutdown 30:02: Mick Bransfield on David Ezra, the new judge who will oversee the PredictIt case at the district court 38:47: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on arrogance in political betting and argues for recruiting experts into political prediction markets
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Will Trump Show Up to Any Debate This Year?
08/31/2023
Will Trump Show Up to Any Debate This Year?
Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate Timestamps 0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess 1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate 2:59: Political betting insights from the first Republican debate 10:32: Friess's interest in political gambling 13:55: Why betting markets missed the 2022 midterms 21:05: Policymaking community's skepticism of political gambling 39:17: Factors in whether Trump will show up to a Republican debate
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Will a Fragmented Republican Field Save Trump?
08/27/2023
Will a Fragmented Republican Field Save Trump?
Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets. Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around an alternative. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the two segments 1:12: Manifold and the importance of in-person forecasting events 6:34: Rule3O3 intro 8:26: Political prediction market efficiency 10:29: Epistemic humility in prediction markets 13:26: Technical analysis 16:20: Fun in prediction markets 18:43: Ben Freeman on whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around DeSantis 20:43: High-profile Republican endorsements 23:19: Attacks on Trump 27:39: Trump's financial problems 29:41: Will Republicans coalesce around an alternative 33:41: DeSantis's strengths and weaknesses 39:54: Ben's picks on PredictIt 41:57: Pence lottos
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The Bull Case for Ron DeSantis
08/19/2023
The Bull Case for Ron DeSantis
Longtime PredictIt trader Ben Freeman argues that the markets are overly pessimistic about Ron DeSantis's odds of winning the Republican nomination and makes the bull case for buying at current prices. 1:23: DeSantis's comments about betting markets on John Stossel's show 6:24: Ben Freeman introduces himself 8:16: Ben's experience as a Trump White House intern 12:13: Why DeSantis prices have dropped 14:24: Why DeSantis remains the strongest candidate after Trump 24:19: Trump's odds 36:31: DeSantis's campaign troubles
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