Star Spangled Gamblers
The news, as told by the world's most profitable political gamblers. This podcast searches for the truth -- because that's what pays.
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The Trader Who Guessed Every Swing State Correctly—Twice
04/22/2025
The Trader Who Guessed Every Swing State Correctly—Twice
In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death threats 18:01: Trump VP pick in 2016 19:57: Blitz's methodology in 2024 26:26: Blue wall 29:52: Florida early vote 33:34: Nevada early turnout 37:50: Georgia 38:08: 2020 41:18: Women/abortion 42:01: Black voters 44:26: Polls 52:21: Concerns about democracy 1:01:30: Political bias Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/x @ssgamblers Trade on tweet markets and many more at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups:
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The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory
02/27/2025
The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory
Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs 13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman 40:19: Nate Silver 40:51: Crane's model's vulnerabilities 42:59: Silver and Lichtman 49:44: Academic models 49:58: Assessing Crane's model 51:04: Follow Crane Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv
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The MAGA Civil War over H-1B Visas
02/17/2025
The MAGA Civil War over H-1B Visas
Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28: Indians 17:07: Chinese H-1Bs 18:00: Why Silicon Valley wants H-1Bs 20:57: Indian Twitter 20:22: Elon Musk 23:13: Steve Bannon 25:39: Trump on H-1B 26:40: Republican factions 29:11: Trump's racial views 29:40: Polymarket markets 29:48: India travel ban 31:29: Will Trump eliminate H-1B? 32:50: Will Trump increase H-1B cap? 33:57: Political process 36:49: Executive action 37:40: Compromise on H-1B? 38:08: Left on H-1B 41:12: Proposed H-1B markets 43:02: Trump first 100 days 43:45: Lori Chavez-Deremer 45:03: Short-term trades 45:31: Chavez-Deremer confirmation hearing 47:23: Bernie Sanders 48:32: Why Chavez-Deremer can't go too far on H-1B in confirmation hearing 48:55: Chavez-Deremer resignation 49:29: Where to find @rule3O3 Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on X @ssgamblers. Bet on the H1-B debate at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Will Trump eliminate H-1B visa in first 100 days? Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days? Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups:
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Kash Patel's Confirmation, Vivek Ramaswamy's Gaffe
01/30/2025
Kash Patel's Confirmation, Vivek Ramaswamy's Gaffe
Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe Timestamps 0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro 0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation 2:03: Hegseth's confirmation 3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy segment 5:41: Intro ends 7:42: Patel segment begins 12:19: Patel scandals 15:52: Dr. Cruse's prediction 16:28: Trump's support of Patel 19:42: Alternatives to Patel 22:29: Why Patel different from Hegseth 23:14: Patel segment ends 23:28: Ramaswamy segment begins 24:50: Whiplash 29:20: Saved By the Bell 30:50: Ramaswamy's critics 39:57: Perceptions of Indian-Americans 43:25: Damage to Ramaswamy Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X: @ssgamblers Bet on Kash Patel's confirmation at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Who will be Trump's FBI Director How many Senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as Director of the FBI Which Senators will vote to confirm Kash Patel Which Trump picks will be confirmed? Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups:
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Problems with Nate Silver's Model
01/18/2025
Problems with Nate Silver's Model
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA
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The Bear Case on Pete Hegseth's Confirmation Odds
01/13/2025
The Bear Case on Pete Hegseth's Confirmation Odds
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood of confirmation 33:46: Republican Senators 46:41: Influence of Hegseth markets 46:56: Sexual harrassment allegations Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Hegseth's nomination at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary/will-pete-hegseth-be-trumps-defense-secretary?tid=1736804733018 Join us for our first DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup of the year! This will be a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Location is TBD but you'll be notified when we've finalized a venue. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander’s Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend this month: Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups:
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Trump's Appointees
01/10/2025
Trump's Appointees
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments. Timestamps 0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments 1:18: Call to support SSG 2:16: Golden Modelos 2:58: Intro ends 4:59: Trump segment begins 7:12: Trump's strategy 7:35: 4-D Chess? 25:45: Sarah Palin 33:02: Golden Modelos Worst Trade 39:03: Golden Modelos Best Fight Bet on Trump administration appointments at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups:
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The Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
12/31/2024
The Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) and Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) celebrate (belatedly) the winners of the 2023 Golden Modelos for the best and worst of political gambling. Timestamps 2:04: Appreciating the political betting community 2:42: Golden Modelos 2024 3:20: Intro ends 5:19: Episode begins 5:28: What are the Golden Modelos? 8:36: Rookie of the Year 10:42: Trader of the Year 16:44: Gaeten's best bets in 2023 27:55: Best Market 38:55: Best News Source 41:54: Future of political gambling community Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here:
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Tucker Carlson After Fox News
12/17/2024
Tucker Carlson After Fox News
Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure. Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discuss the merits of CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's opposition to election event contracts. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Tucker Carlson segment 2:02: Behnam's announcement on event contracts rulemaking 11:36: Tucker Carlson segment begins 11:48: Fred Norris recaps bet with Zoltar 19:30: Fox News ratings after Tucker Carlson 25:21: Tucker Carlson's decline 29:17: Tucker Carlson segment ends 29:32: Behnam segment begins 34:53: What legal prediction markets would look like 38:05: Behnam vs. Kalshi 38:26: Proprietary technology 41:31: Kalshi's view 41:48: Why Kalshi's view is at odds with Behnam 42:05: State law 42:22: Behnam's view on prediction markets 43:55: CFTC jurisdiction 46:09: Chougule's view on political betting 46:37: Chougule's critique of Kalshi 47:19: Chougule's view on Behnam's perspective 47:39: Benefits of status quo 49:23: Repealing state law "Anderson Cooper out as CNN anchor in 2024?" Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Coalition for Political Forecasting
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Kalshi v. CFTC: Update and Legal Issues
11/10/2024
Kalshi v. CFTC: Update and Legal Issues
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting 8:06: District court case 10:37: Gaming 15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling 18:17: DC Circuit appeal 18:30: DC Circuit court judges 30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts 33:07: Foreign prediction markets 35:27: Behnam comments on UK betting scandal 36:33: Kid Rock manipulation anecdote 38:33: Manipulation in prediction markets Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Sign up for the Forecasting Meetup Network: https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8
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Reporting on Election 2024 from the County Level
11/01/2024
Reporting on Election 2024 from the County Level
Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate race Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
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How to Organize a Forecasting Meetup
10/28/2024
How to Organize a Forecasting Meetup
David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03: Interview with Glidden begins 8:29: Working with a partner 9:42: Sensitivity to rejection 12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites 14:25: Big visions 15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision 18:28: Scratch your own itch 19:52: Prediction market newsletters 21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle 22:32: How to begin 23:03: Finding a venue 26:17: Focus on n of 1 26:38: Fundraising 27:28: Manifund 32:39: Value for sponsors 37:17: Getting RSVPs 38:56: How to get involved 41:54: Expanding beyond Washington 43:26: Grassroots activism 44:46: Opponents of election betting 47:53: Why companies don't invest in grassroots activism Join us for a pre-election forecasting & prediction markets meetup/party this Tuesday! Details and RSVP for free here: https://partiful.com/e/ITHDAcznT1DppUXD2p9x Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Building the Forecasting Community: Lessons from the Sports Betting World
09/25/2024
Building the Forecasting Community: Lessons from the Sports Betting World
David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid. Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.
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District Judge Rules Against CFTC
09/23/2024
District Judge Rules Against CFTC
Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield 1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle 9:34: Bransfield segment begins 11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation 20:33: Definition of a contest 21:47: Market manipulation 27:02: Cobb's concerns 27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming 29:34: Importance of public comments to CFTC 25:38: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Manifund: For more information on the meetup, DM David Glidden @dglid. Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.
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Who Will Win the Trump-Harris Debate?
09/10/2024
Who Will Win the Trump-Harris Debate?
Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate. Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election. Timestamps 3:49: Interview begins 4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt 6:54: 50Pence introduction 8:26: Title Belt bet 15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump 18:32: Counterparty risk 21:39: Debate rules 30:59: Harris's performance 57:13: Trump's weaknesses 1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets 1:08:03: Crypto/Bitcoin mentions 1:15:32: How many Trump-Harris debates? 1:18:47: Lottos on 3+ debates? Show Notes Bet on debate markets at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Kalshi's Case Against the CFTC
08/31/2024
Kalshi's Case Against the CFTC
Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment 0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment 2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada 3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida 6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins 6:29: Jones Day 9:13: Joshua Sterling 10:50: Yaakov Roth 11:14: Amanda Rice 11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument 14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument 14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets 15:35: Factual errors 16:40: Kalshi references Chougule's comment letter 19:51: Attendees at the Hearing 21:08: Importance of legal arguments 22:10: Judge's reaction to Kalshi 23:11: Segment with Whitley begins 23:34: The Triple Package 24:09: Mormon influence in politics 25:11: Protestant alliances 25:48: Romney-Santorum battle in 2012 26:19: High-achieving minority groups 27:02: Cuban-Americans 29:31: Mormons moving left 35:27: Utah housing affordability 36:29: Federal lands in Utah 37:55: Blue state refugees in Utah Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Coalition for Political Forecasting: https://coalitionforpoliticalforecasting.org/ Markets Referenced Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Arizona Presidential Election Winner: Arizona Senate Election Winner: AZ-06 election: Engel (D) vs. Ciscomani (R): AZ-01 election: Shah (D) vs. Schweikert (R): Nevada Presidential Election Winner: Nevada Senate Election Winner: Utah Presidential Election Winner: Utah Senate Election Winner: Utah Governor Election Winner: Florida Presidential Election Winner: Florida Senate Election Winner: Tipping Point State: https://polymarket.com/event/us-election-tipping-point-state?tid=1725130009469
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Crypto Bros at the Republican National Convention
08/15/2024
Crypto Bros at the Republican National Convention
Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup. Timestamps 3:58: Interview begins 5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC 18:05: Why the RNC matters 19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency 27:47: Media treatment of Harris 31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race 37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election SUPPORT US: Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.
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How to Comment on the CFTC's Event Contracts Proposal
08/08/2024
How to Comment on the CFTC's Event Contracts Proposal
Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal. Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC Timestamps 1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC 2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube 3:43: What to write to the CFTC 5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal 7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle 12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal 13:44: Political betting moving offshore 15:17: Delaying the rule 17:23: Need for a balancing test 22:36: Interview with Bransfield begins 28:31: Jia Cobb 34:32: Ignorance about prediction markets 38:36: Gambling references on Kalshi's website CFTC Proposal on Event Contracts: SUPPORT US: Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com
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Obstacles to Rescheduling Marijuana
07/30/2024
Obstacles to Rescheduling Marijuana
Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024 Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contracts Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana rescheduling segment 2:11: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation 3:24: CFTC rulemaking on event contracts 6:46: Interview with Whitley begins 8:14: Referencing Polymarket odds in political analysis 11:12: What does rescheduling marijuana mean? 13:30: Why Biden rescheduled marijuana 17:46: Romney's objections 18:17: U.S. treaty obligations 30:05: Public attitudes 35:27: Bransfield interview begins Show Notes — Whitley's Daily Caller column: — Romney letter to DEA Trade on whether marijuana will be rescheduled in 2024 at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024/will-weed-be-rescheduled-in-2024?tid=1722322243642
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UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor
07/03/2024
UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor
Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats. Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets Timestamps 0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi 1:53: Pratik introduces segment with Pickles 5:19: Segment with Kedjanyi begins 6:27: Reform Party's launch 11:28: Farage's odds of election 15:02: Farage's impact in the next government 19:38: First past the post 25:03: The Labour Party's ideology 25:46: How Farage could impact the Tories 26:42: Reform will not be the opposition 28:08: How many seats for Labour 29:39: What Kedjanyi learned from traveling around the country 33:19: Potential surprises 36:27: Which way will polling miss go? 39:07: Segment with Pickles begins Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on the UK elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
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Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP
07/01/2024
Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP
Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contracts Part III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) provides advice on how to follow the UK elections and maintain an edge in these markets Part IV: Saul Munn (@saulmunn) explains the importance of capital in building the forecasting community Timestamps 0:11: Pratik introduces segment on J.D. Vance 0:46: Pratik introduces segment with Mick Bransfield 1:30: Pratik introduces segment with Anthony Pickles 2:13: Pratik introduces segment with Saul Munn 5:02: Vance segment begins 5:14: Chan's views on Vance 6:33: Freeman's analysis on Vance 8:34: Pratik's analysis on Vance 11:07: Segment with Bransfield begins 18:11: Libertarians in CFTC comment period 28:09: Segment with Pickles begins 33:05: Segment with Munn begins 35:24: Social capital 41:33: Weak ties 44:09: Creating value Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers Bet on Trump's VP selection at Polymarket Optic Forecasting: https://www.opticforecasting.com/
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Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory
06/25/2024
Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory
Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets. Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections 2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds 3:17: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation 5:55: Segment on UK elections begins 6:12: Anthony's background 8:17: Keir Starmer's background 10:16: Starmer's odds of becoming Prime Minister 11:01: How many seats Conservatives and Labour will win 22:04: Why Sunak and the Conservatives are unlikely to make a comeback 28:37: Why Sunak called an early election 30:54: Labour seat totals 34:03: Right-wing bias in the markets? 36:59: Discussion of class politics 39:27: Segment with Chan begins 39:46: VP odds on Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy 40:48: "Juice" in sportsbooks 41:46: Regulation segment begins 42:56: Incentives in the current CFTC rulemaking 45:00: Need for a counter-lobby on event contracts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at Polymarket.com
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Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics
06/17/2024
Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics
3-Part Episode Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics. Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Codex Ten forecasting competition. Part III: Saul Munn explains how to organize the forecasting community 0:11: Pratik introduces VP segment 0:26: Pratik introduces Campbell segment 1:05: Pratik introduces Munn segment 4:09: VP segment begins 8:43: 2028 considerations 18:13: Campbell segment begins 22:55: Expertise and prediction 28:10: Interview with Munn begins 28:45: The importance of in-person events 29:00: Manifest's origins 30:46: The political gambling community 32:11: Transitioning from an online community 34:04: How to organize the forecasting community 36:05: University clubs 37:06: Reluctance to organize events 38:15: EA Global 40:59: Low bar to community-building Bet on who Trump will select as his running mate at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com. SUPPORT US: Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: www.twitter.com/ssgamblers
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How Trump Will Select His VP
06/06/2024
How Trump Will Select His VP
Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection 1:44: Manifest 2024 7:18: Episode on VP nomination begins 7:43: What are SSG Title Belt Championships? 9:37: How Ben Freeman won the SSG Title Belt 11:56: Ben's proposed side bet on Trump's VP selection 13:36: Alex Chan's background 15:38: OpenBet/DonBest 19:26: How Alex got into political gambling 20:49: Political nerds vs. professional gamblers 22:36: Ben and Alex negotiate theie side bet 27:09: How Trump will select his VP 30:10: Loyalty considerations 32:21: Trump's strength in GOP 34:48: Will Trump penalize those who ran against him? 35:32: When will Trump announce the pick? 36:38: How deep is Trump's VP bench? 40:09: Has Trump already decided? Follow SSG on Twitter: @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.
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CFTC Cracks Down on Election Contracts
06/03/2024
CFTC Cracks Down on Election Contracts
The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins 8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue 10:14: What is rulemaking? 11:24: Behnam's statement 11:48: Concerns about CFTC staff time on election contracts 14:25: Conflict of interest accusations against Kristin Johnson 17:34: Senator Tommy Tuberville's involvement 20:02: Goldsmith-Romero's views 25:13: Mersinger's dissent 27:38: Pham's dissent 31:10: Discord at the CFTC 32:01: Questions about CFTC enforcement 35:41: CFTC's power and resources 37:58: Behnam's political ambition 41:06: Pratik's critique of Mersinger's dissent 45:12: Pratik's impressions from attending CFTC meeting in person Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at . Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.
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Rishi Sunak's Political Future
05/20/2024
Rishi Sunak's Political Future
London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held 27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election 31:04: Impact of U.S. elections on UK election timing 34:55: Will Sunak be out before next elections? 39:36: Will Sunak quit? 40:21: Could Sunak be pushed out by his party? Trade on Sunak and the next UK elections at Polymarket.com: Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
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Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
05/09/2024
Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos 6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process 8:33: Best Market 9:27: Room temperature superconductor 10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market 11:23: Best Trade 11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market 12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1 12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei 13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song 13:12: Domer debt limit profits 13:17: Worst Trade 14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count 14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president 15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement 15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy 17:21: Best Shitposter 19:06: Domer's shitposting 19:56: RelayThief's shitposting 20:44: Rookie of the Year 21:12: Naman Mehndiratta 22:39: Manifold Markets 23:20: Betting platforms 23:48: TheWinner 25:29: Trader of the Year 25:46: ANoland 26:07: Gaeten Dugas 27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger) 28:33: Doug Campbell 29:05: Worst Pump 31:04: Kalshi election contracts 31:15: Hamas control of Gaza 32:00: Trump third indictment 32:44: Semiconductor yes holders 33:40: RFK Democratic nominee 33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year 34:22: Best News Source 34:41: Politico Punchbowl 35:00: PredictIt comments 35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI 35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips 37:29: CSP Discord 38:36: Service to Political Gambling 38:36: PredictIt 39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck 39:56: Government Shutdown 40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump" 41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles 42:19: submarine debris 43:04: Trump indictment on March 31 43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages 44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute 44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack 45:59: Postscript 46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination 47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market at polymarket.com Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
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When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
04/15/2024
When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling 9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics? 11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor 16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift 16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real? 19:04: How to research Taylor Swift relationship gossip 20:56: Swift-Kelce relationship timeline 24:34: Swift's past relationships 27:57: The Eras Tour 31:23: Kelce's public statements 32:02: Do they want kids? 35:23: Trading strategies for the Swift engagement market 40:13: Will Taylor Swift be pregnant this year? 44:48: How political betting spurs interest in topics SUPPORT US Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL Twitter: TikTok: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjZUfG2_5fqJHfXGtjsayww VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com
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Stalemate in Ukraine
03/22/2024
Stalemate in Ukraine
Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia 1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest 1:32: Manifest conference 2024 4:33: Interview begins 5:17: High-level update on the war 13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war 14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates on Ukraine 18:12: Optimism on both sides of the word 19:21: Sanctions against Russia 22:58: Odds of Putin being assassinated 24:23: Russian involvement in Israel-Hamas conflict 25:14: Impact of a Trump victory 26:02: Western aid to Ukraine 28:01: Odds of Putin leaving office 29:48: Odds of Russian nuclear escalation 31:00: How to trade ceasefire markets Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
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The Emerging Forecasting Community
03/06/2024
The Emerging Forecasting Community
Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick. In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets. 0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn 1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest 1:56: Manifest Conference 2024 3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market 4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination 5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young 9:03: Interview with Saul begins 9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space 11:00: Optic forecasting clubs 12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community 13:25: Manifest Conference 13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community 14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community? 14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community 16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting 19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community 20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community 21:18: Communities interested in forecasting 21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting 24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting 28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins 28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds 29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds 30:05: Swing state VP contenders 31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins 31:59: Taxing bad predictions 33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets 34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets 40:12: Hedge funds and AI
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