The Bear Case on Pete Hegseth's Confirmation Odds
Star Spangled Gamblers
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood...
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Trump's Appointees
Star Spangled Gamblers
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments. Timestamps 0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments 1:18: Call to support SSG 2:16: Golden Modelos 2:58: Intro ends 4:59: Trump segment begins 7:12: Trump's strategy 7:35: 4-D Chess? 25:45: Sarah Palin 33:02: Golden Modelos Worst Trade 39:03: Golden Modelos Best Fight Bet on Trump administration appointments at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by...
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The Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Star Spangled Gamblers
Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) and Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) celebrate (belatedly) the winners of the 2023 Golden Modelos for the best and worst of political gambling. Timestamps 2:04: Appreciating the political betting community 2:42: Golden Modelos 2024 3:20: Intro ends 5:19: Episode begins 5:28: What are the Golden Modelos? 8:36: Rookie of the Year 10:42: Trader of the Year 16:44: Gaeten's best bets in 2023 27:55: Best Market 38:55: Best News Source 41:54: Future of political gambling community Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's...
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Tucker Carlson After Fox News
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure. Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discuss the merits of CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's opposition to election event contracts. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Tucker Carlson segment 2:02: Behnam's announcement on event contracts rulemaking 11:36: Tucker Carlson segment begins 11:48: Fred Norris recaps bet with Zoltar 19:30: Fox...
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Kalshi v. CFTC: Update and Legal Issues
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting 8:06: District court case 10:37: Gaming 15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling 18:17: DC Circuit appeal 18:30: DC Circuit court judges 30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts 33:07:...
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Reporting on Election 2024 from the County Level
Star Spangled Gamblers
Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate race Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
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How to Organize a Forecasting Meetup
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03: Interview with Glidden begins 8:29: Working with a partner 9:42: Sensitivity to rejection 12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites 14:25: Big visions 15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision 18:28: Scratch your own itch 19:52: Prediction market newsletters 21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle 22:32: How to begin 23:03:...
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Building the Forecasting Community: Lessons from the Sports Betting World
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC...
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District Judge Rules Against CFTC
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield 1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle 9:34: Bransfield segment begins 11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation 20:33: Definition of a contest 21:47: Market manipulation 27:02: Cobb's concerns 27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming 29:34: Importance of public comments to...
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Who Will Win the Trump-Harris Debate?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate. Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election. Timestamps 3:49: Interview begins 4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt 6:54: 50Pence introduction 8:26: Title Belt bet 15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump 18:32: Counterparty risk 21:39: Debate rules 30:59: Harris's performance 57:13: Trump's weaknesses 1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets 1:08:03:...
info_outlineDr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate.
Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces episode
0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth
8:05: Intro ends
10:06: Interview with Cruse begins
10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects
11:24: Democratic Senators
12:11: Rubio
15:44: Most controversial nominees
16:27: Hegseth scandals
31:14: Factors in likelihood of confirmation
33:46: Republican Senators
46:41: Influence of Hegseth markets
46:56: Sexual harrassment allegations
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers
Trade on Hegseth's nomination at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary/will-pete-hegseth-be-trumps-defense-secretary?tid=1736804733018
Join us for our first DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup of the year! This will be a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Location is TBD but you'll be notified when we've finalized a venue. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander’s Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend this month: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-people-will-attend-a-forec-OzPZILyc5C?play=true Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv