loader from loading.io

Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community?

Star Spangled Gamblers

Release Date: 09/15/2023

Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections show art Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections

Star Spangled Gamblers

Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina. 1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview begins 6:06: Massa's backround 7:43: Massa's political baggage 8:45: Questions about Massa's alleged drug addiction 9:56: Market volatility since the eve of the first round of elections 11:39: Why did polls miss on the first round? 12:49: Milei's shortcomings 14:34: Summary of first round results 15:38:...

info_outline
Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia show art Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia

Star Spangled Gamblers

Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket. 3:54: Interview with Harrison begins 5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights? 7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan 7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan 12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict 14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia 15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading 17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia? 18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan...

info_outline
Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race show art Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race

Star Spangled Gamblers

On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a challenge for the SSG Title Belt. 3:20: Main segment begins 4:10: Introduction to Dr. Cruse 6:51: Emerson polling 8:20: Current market prices 12:31: The role of national politics 14:16: Racial politics 17:21: SSG TItle Belt Challenge 23:36: Polling in...

info_outline
A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race show art A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race

Star Spangled Gamblers

3-Part Episode — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events Timestamps 4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins 4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers  7:14: Kentucky colonels 9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's...

info_outline
Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC show art Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC

Star Spangled Gamblers

After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts. Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision. 0:00: Introduction begins 2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political betting regulation 3:46: Kalshi's policy on transparency 5:27: Kalshi's diverging incentives from the political betting community 7:42: How Pratik's assumptions on political betting regulation differ from those of Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour 13:03:...

info_outline
Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community show art Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community

Star Spangled Gamblers

After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to secure the GOP nomination — Balancing the incentives of being a forecaster and a pundit 3:25: Interview begins 4:14: Richard's new book The Origins of Woke and his association with Vivek Ramaswamy 7:00: Richard responds to those in the...

info_outline
Dispatches from the Iowa Caucuses show art Dispatches from the Iowa Caucuses

Star Spangled Gamblers

Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses. Timestamps 3:12: Interview begins 3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries? 5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis 6:06: Trump's appearance 6:28: Ramaswamy rapping 7:30: DeSantis's prospects 23:40: Iowa evangelicals 26:23: DeSantis's ground game 31:38: Longshot candidates and nonstarters in Iowa 35:18: Odds of a Trump second place in Iowa 37:28: Ramaswamy supporters 38:06: Hatred...

info_outline
Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community? show art Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community?

Star Spangled Gamblers

Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues. Timestamps: 0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG 10:23: Who is Hanania? 15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania 19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community? 23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism 29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing 32:22:...

info_outline
How a Government Shutdown Will Likely Be Averted show art How a Government Shutdown Will Likely Be Averted

Star Spangled Gamblers

Intro: Pratik Chougule  Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets   1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest Conference 5:46: Zubby on the possibility of a government shutdown 30:02: Mick Bransfield on David...

info_outline
Will Trump Show Up to Any Debate This Year? show art Will Trump Show Up to Any Debate This Year?

Star Spangled Gamblers

Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate   Timestamps 0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess 1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate 2:59: Political betting...

info_outline
 
More Episodes

Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues.

Timestamps:

0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament
2:58: Manifest conference
5:04: Crime markets on Manifold
6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG
10:23: Who is Hanania?
15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania
19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community?
23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism
29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing

32:22: Political betting as a solution to political polarization

33:52: OutsideContextProblem's criticism of Hanania as a troll
36:46: Rob Henderson's defense of Hanania
38:27: Oliver Habryka's proposed standard for canceling Hanania
40:45: Why Aella isn't canceled
43:47: David Manheim's critique on Hanania making people feel unwelcome
45:05: Ezra Brody's question on engaging "gross people"