A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race
Release Date: 10/30/2023
Tucker Carlson After Fox News
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure. Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discuss the merits of CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's opposition to election event contracts. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Tucker Carlson segment 2:02: Behnam's announcement on event contracts rulemaking 11:36: Tucker Carlson segment begins 11:48: Fred Norris recaps bet with Zoltar 19:30: Fox...
info_outline
Kalshi v. CFTC: Update and Legal Issues
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting 8:06: District court case 10:37: Gaming 15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling 18:17: DC Circuit appeal 18:30: DC Circuit court judges 30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts 33:07:...
info_outline
Reporting on Election 2024 from the County Level
Star Spangled Gamblers
Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate race Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
info_outline
How to Organize a Forecasting Meetup
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03: Interview with Glidden begins 8:29: Working with a partner 9:42: Sensitivity to rejection 12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites 14:25: Big visions 15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision 18:28: Scratch your own itch 19:52: Prediction market newsletters 21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle 22:32: How to begin 23:03:...
info_outline
Building the Forecasting Community: Lessons from the Sports Betting World
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC...
info_outline
District Judge Rules Against CFTC
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield 1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle 9:34: Bransfield segment begins 11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation 20:33: Definition of a contest 21:47: Market manipulation 27:02: Cobb's concerns 27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming 29:34: Importance of public comments to...
info_outline
Who Will Win the Trump-Harris Debate?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate. Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election. Timestamps 3:49: Interview begins 4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt 6:54: 50Pence introduction 8:26: Title Belt bet 15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump 18:32: Counterparty risk 21:39: Debate rules 30:59: Harris's performance 57:13: Trump's weaknesses 1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets 1:08:03:...
info_outline
Kalshi's Case Against the CFTC
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment 0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment 2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada 3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida 6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins 6:29: Jones Day 9:13: Joshua Sterling 10:50: Yaakov Roth 11:14: Amanda Rice 11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument 14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument 14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets...
info_outline
Crypto Bros at the Republican National Convention
Star Spangled Gamblers
Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup. Timestamps 3:58: Interview begins 5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC 18:05: Why the RNC matters 19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency 27:47: Media treatment of Harris 31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race 37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election SUPPORT US: Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest...
info_outline
How to Comment on the CFTC's Event Contracts Proposal
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal. Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC Timestamps 1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC 2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube 3:43: What to write to the CFTC 5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal 7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle 12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal 13:44: Political betting moving offshore 15:17: Delaying the rule 17:23: Need...
info_outline3-Part Episode
— Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet
— Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket
— MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while traveling to campaign events
Timestamps
4:24: Interview with Keendawg begins
4:40: Keendawg's role in founding Star Spangled Gamblers
7:14: Kentucky colonels
9:42: Who is Andy Beshear and why is he the favorite in the KY governor's race?
15:29: Who is Daniel Cameron?
18:20: Counties in Kentucky to watch
21:35: Why Andy Beshear won in 2019
22:14: Cameron's appeal
23:26: Background on KY politics
25:27: Partisan politics in KY
26:54: Lexington-Louisville rivalry
27:42: Davies County
28:47: Segment begins on Kalshi's role in Polymarket
30:18: Former CFTC official Maggie Sklar's comment to the CFTC against Kalshi
34:23: MAGAVacuum's research on communications and political prediction markets
36:00: How to gain an edge by traveling to campaign events
Show Notes
— Sklar's letter to CFTC https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=72703&SearchText=sklar
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter: @ssgamblers
Follow Pratik Chougule on Twitter: @pjchougule