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The Emerging Forecasting Community

Star Spangled Gamblers

Release Date: 03/06/2024

UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor show art UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor

Star Spangled Gamblers

Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats. Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets Timestamps  0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi 1:53: Pratik introduces segment with Pickles 5:19: Segment with Kedjanyi begins 6:27: Reform Party's launch 11:28: Farage's odds of election 15:02: Farage's impact in the next government 19:38: First past the post 25:03: The Labour Party's ideology 25:46: How Farage...

Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP show art Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP

Star Spangled Gamblers

Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contracts Part III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) provides advice on how to follow the UK elections and maintain an edge in these markets Part IV: Saul Munn (@saulmunn) explains the importance of capital in building the forecasting community Timestamps 0:11: Pratik introduces segment on J.D. Vance...

Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory show art Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory

Star Spangled Gamblers

Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets. Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections 2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds 3:17:...

Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics show art Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics

Star Spangled Gamblers

3-Part Episode Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics. Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Codex Ten forecasting competition. Part III: Saul Munn explains how to organize the forecasting community 0:11: Pratik introduces VP segment 0:26: Pratik introduces Campbell segment 1:05: Pratik introduces Munn segment 4:09: VP segment begins 8:43: 2028...

How Trump Will Select His VP show art How Trump Will Select His VP

Star Spangled Gamblers

Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it.  Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection 1:44: Manifest 2024 7:18: Episode on VP nomination begins 7:43: What are SSG Title Belt Championships? 9:37: How Ben Freeman won the SSG Title Belt 11:56: Ben's proposed side bet on Trump's VP selection 13:36: Alex Chan's background 15:38:...

CFTC Cracks Down on Election Contracts show art CFTC Cracks Down on Election Contracts

Star Spangled Gamblers

The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins 8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue 10:14: What is rulemaking? 11:24: Behnam's statement 11:48: Concerns about CFTC staff time on election contracts 14:25: Conflict of interest accusations against Kristin Johnson 17:34: Senator Tommy Tuberville's involvement 20:02: Goldsmith-Romero's views 25:13: Mersinger's dissent 27:38:...

Rishi Sunak's Political Future show art Rishi Sunak's Political Future

Star Spangled Gamblers

London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held 27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election 31:04: Impact of U.S. elections on UK election timing 34:55: Will Sunak be out before next elections? 39:36: Will Sunak quit? 40:21: Could Sunak be pushed out by his party? Trade on Sunak and the next UK elections at Polymarket.com: Follow SSG on...

Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023 show art Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023

Star Spangled Gamblers

Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos 6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process 8:33: Best Market 9:27: Room temperature superconductor 10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market 11:23: Best Trade 11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market 12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy...

When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged? show art When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?

Star Spangled Gamblers

Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling 9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics? 11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor 16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift 16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real? 19:04:...

Stalemate in Ukraine show art Stalemate in Ukraine

Star Spangled Gamblers

Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine.  Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia 1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest  1:32: Manifest conference 2024 4:33: Interview begins 5:17: High-level update on the war 13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war 14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates...

More Episodes

Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference.

In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community.

In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick.

In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets.

0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn
1:24: Saul's disclaimer on conflicts of interest

1:56: Manifest Conference 2024
3:26: Intro for Brian Darling segment on the GOP VP nominee market
4:16: How to trade on the GOP VP nomination
5:08: Intro to interview with Nathan Young
9:03: Interview with Saul begins
9:26: The importance of community in the political betting space
11:00: Optic forecasting clubs
12:44: How Saul became interested in the forecasting community
13:25: Manifest Conference
13:46: Diversity in the forecasting community
14:32: Who is in the broader forecasting community?
14:56: Destiny's role in the forecasting community
16:57: The types of people who are interested in forecasting
19:44: Differences between Washington politics and the forecasting community
20:40: Differences between the political betting community and the forecasting community
21:18: Communities interested in forecasting
21:47: Communities that could be interested in forecasting
24:34: Why some communities resist forecasting
28:20: Segment with Brian Darling begins
28:27: Kim Reynolds's VP odds
29:06: Marsha Blackburn's VP odds
30:05: Swing state VP contenders
31:26: Segment with Nathan Young begins
31:59: Taxing bad predictions
33:46: Shorting AI enthusiasm in political betting markets
34:47: Irrational pricing in Time Person of the Year markets 

40:12: Hedge funds and AI