100TH EPISODE SPECTACULAR, OR IRRATIONALLY OPTIMISTIC (Part 1)
Tea and Crumpets
In the 100th episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston celebrate the podcast’s century mark by welcoming returning guest Kalee Kreider for a timely and expansive discussion on geopolitics, inflation, energy markets, and the growing disconnect between financial markets and economic realities on the ground. As Part 1 of this special two-part release, the conversation opens with reflections on reaching 100 episodes before quickly shifting into a deeper examination of the global and domestic pressures shaping the current economic environment. Kalee offers a unique...
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100TH EPISODE SPECTACULAR, OR IRRATIONALLY OPTIMISTIC (Part 2)
Tea and Crumpets
In Part 2 of this special 100th episode celebration of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston continue their wide-ranging conversation with returning guest Kalee Kreider, diving deeper into the political, economic, and cultural consequences of the current geopolitical and financial environment. Building on the themes from Episode 100, the discussion shifts toward the upcoming U.S. election cycle, the evolving identity crisis within both political parties, and the broader implications of polarization, redistricting, and shifting voter coalitions. Kalee offers candid insight into...
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Houthis and the Blowfish
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic landscape shaped by escalating tensions in the Middle East. With a fragile ceasefire in place and ongoing uncertainty surrounding key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the conversation explores how quickly conditions on the ground, and in the markets, are shifting. They highlight the difficulty of interpreting real-time information in an environment flooded with conflicting narratives and misinformation. At the center of the discussion is the global energy market,...
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We Interrupt This Podcast…
Tea and Crumpets
In episode 98 of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston address a rapidly unfolding geopolitical and market situation, as well as the broader assumptions investors have been relying on. What begins as a discussion of escalating tensions in the Middle East quickly turns into a deeper examination of how fragile global energy infrastructure, shifting policy decisions, and uncertain military outcomes are colliding in real time. The hosts highlight how quickly sentiment can swing, with markets reacting sharply to both escalation and temporary de-escalation, underscoring just how sensitive...
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Oil, Private Credit, and A.I.
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Adam Eagleston and Will Brown examine a rapidly evolving global environment where geopolitics, energy markets, and structural risks in finance are colliding. The discussion begins with the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel and the immediate shock to global oil markets, where prices surged dramatically before partially retracing. Adam and Will explore how disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping routes could tighten global supply, increase inflation pressure, and complicate monetary policy decisions for the Federal...
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Under the Surface
Tea and Crumpets
After a brief hiatus (courtesy of a historic Southern ice storm), Adam and Will return to find an index-level market that looks deceptively calm—roughly flat since their last episode—while significant damage has been done beneath the surface to individual stocks. The disconnect between index stability and individual-stock carnage is the central thread of the episode. The first major topic is AI capital expenditure. Most of the Mag 7 have committed to spending at a scale that would have seemed absurd just a few years ago, and the market, which once rewarded this enthusiasm, has begun to...
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Happy New Year
Tea and Crumpets
We look at the eventful start to 2026 and try to put some context around potential market impacts. Geopolitically, we saw the renewed vigor of the Monroe Doctrine in full force with U.S. action against Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. Whether stemming the flow of drugs or increasing the supply of oil was the primary factor is undetermined, though decades of underinvestment in infrastructure make any meaningful near-term effect on oil supply unlikely; lower oil prices have been one of the few things keeping inflation in check. We also discuss saber rattling as it relates to Greenland, whose...
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Christmas Present
Tea and Crumpets
We take a detour into the Dickensian in evaluating the state of the economy. First, the recent inflation print, which showed a significant decline in the level of price increases, was a fiction worthy of Dickens, with the majority of the data simply made up as a result of the government shutdown. Setting that aside, since 2021, wage growth has not kept pace with inflation for food, shelter, and services, though we can count our blessings that at least alcohol prices have not increased as much… Challenges face the Fed chair (both current and yet to come), and managing a deteriorating labor...
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Ish
Tea and Crumpets
After Thanksgiving, we take a look at poultry, especially how dove-ish the Fed is now expected to be, a sharp reversal from a few weeks ago. We also discuss the odds-on favorite for the next Fed chair and how his political leanings may (or may not) influence which direction the Fed takes. Recent employment data has been lackluster, to put it mildly, which is forcing the Fed’s hand as it relates to continued cuts. To wit: Total change in private employment – Negative 32k Manufacturing and construction – Negative 27k Small businesses – Negative 100k Wage growth, especially for lower...
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I Have Two Gavels. One for Each of You.
Tea and Crumpets
After a long hiatus (no, not related to the government shutdown) we return with a look at the economy and markets. On the economic front, despite a lack of formal data, signs point to a weakening labor market. Consumers in the bottom 80% have spending post-Covid that has barely kept pace with inflation, with prices higher by around 25% since 2020. Unemployment has climbed to over 9% for those between 20 and 24 years of age. All these are signs of a K-shaped economic recovery, with a strong stock market supporting higher spending for those in the top 20% of incomes. The Fed faces a challenge...
info_outlineIn episode 98 of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston address a rapidly unfolding geopolitical and market situation, as well as the broader assumptions investors have been relying on. What begins as a discussion of escalating tensions in the Middle East quickly turns into a deeper examination of how fragile global energy infrastructure, shifting policy decisions, and uncertain military outcomes are colliding in real time. The hosts highlight how quickly sentiment can swing, with markets reacting sharply to both escalation and temporary de-escalation, underscoring just how sensitive the current environment has become.
The conversation then moves into the structural implications of sustained disruption. Will and Adam explore the cascading effects of constrained oil supply, damage to critical infrastructure, and the logistical challenges of restarting energy production once it’s been halted. They emphasize that even without further escalation, the duration of the conflict alone introduces long-term risks, particularly in energy markets, inflation expectations, and global trade flows. These pressures are already beginning to surface in bond markets and interest rate expectations, raising concerns that higher inflation could become more entrenched and more difficult to manage.
Beyond geopolitics, the episode widens its lens to include additional stress points building beneath the surface. The hosts discuss the potential for forced asset sales by sovereign wealth funds, the growing complexity and opacity of private credit markets, and the role artificial intelligence is playing in reshaping labor markets and corporate behavior. Together, these factors create a market environment defined less by a single narrative and more by a widening range of possible outcomes, making traditional forecasting increasingly difficult and reinforcing a more cautious approach to risk.
Throughout the episode, Will and Adam stress that uncertainty, not just negative news, is the dominant force shaping markets today. They encourage investors to remain disciplined, avoid reactionary decisions, and focus on positioning portfolios for resilience rather than chasing past winners. As the episode concludes, they leave listeners with a clear message: this is a moment that demands attention, patience, and a willingness to adapt as conditions continue to evolve.
Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.