100TH EPISODE SPECTACULAR, OR IRRATIONALLY OPTIMISTIC (Part 1)
Tea and Crumpets
In the 100th episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston celebrate the podcast’s century mark by welcoming returning guest Kalee Kreider for a timely and expansive discussion on geopolitics, inflation, energy markets, and the growing disconnect between financial markets and economic realities on the ground. As Part 1 of this special two-part release, the conversation opens with reflections on reaching 100 episodes before quickly shifting into a deeper examination of the global and domestic pressures shaping the current economic environment. Kalee offers a unique...
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100TH EPISODE SPECTACULAR, OR IRRATIONALLY OPTIMISTIC (Part 2)
Tea and Crumpets
In Part 2 of this special 100th episode celebration of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston continue their wide-ranging conversation with returning guest Kalee Kreider, diving deeper into the political, economic, and cultural consequences of the current geopolitical and financial environment. Building on the themes from Episode 100, the discussion shifts toward the upcoming U.S. election cycle, the evolving identity crisis within both political parties, and the broader implications of polarization, redistricting, and shifting voter coalitions. Kalee offers candid insight into...
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Houthis and the Blowfish
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic landscape shaped by escalating tensions in the Middle East. With a fragile ceasefire in place and ongoing uncertainty surrounding key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the conversation explores how quickly conditions on the ground, and in the markets, are shifting. They highlight the difficulty of interpreting real-time information in an environment flooded with conflicting narratives and misinformation. At the center of the discussion is the global energy market,...
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We Interrupt This Podcast…
Tea and Crumpets
In episode 98 of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston address a rapidly unfolding geopolitical and market situation, as well as the broader assumptions investors have been relying on. What begins as a discussion of escalating tensions in the Middle East quickly turns into a deeper examination of how fragile global energy infrastructure, shifting policy decisions, and uncertain military outcomes are colliding in real time. The hosts highlight how quickly sentiment can swing, with markets reacting sharply to both escalation and temporary de-escalation, underscoring just how sensitive...
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Oil, Private Credit, and A.I.
Tea and Crumpets
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Adam Eagleston and Will Brown examine a rapidly evolving global environment where geopolitics, energy markets, and structural risks in finance are colliding. The discussion begins with the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel and the immediate shock to global oil markets, where prices surged dramatically before partially retracing. Adam and Will explore how disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping routes could tighten global supply, increase inflation pressure, and complicate monetary policy decisions for the Federal...
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Under the Surface
Tea and Crumpets
After a brief hiatus (courtesy of a historic Southern ice storm), Adam and Will return to find an index-level market that looks deceptively calm—roughly flat since their last episode—while significant damage has been done beneath the surface to individual stocks. The disconnect between index stability and individual-stock carnage is the central thread of the episode. The first major topic is AI capital expenditure. Most of the Mag 7 have committed to spending at a scale that would have seemed absurd just a few years ago, and the market, which once rewarded this enthusiasm, has begun to...
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Happy New Year
Tea and Crumpets
We look at the eventful start to 2026 and try to put some context around potential market impacts. Geopolitically, we saw the renewed vigor of the Monroe Doctrine in full force with U.S. action against Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. Whether stemming the flow of drugs or increasing the supply of oil was the primary factor is undetermined, though decades of underinvestment in infrastructure make any meaningful near-term effect on oil supply unlikely; lower oil prices have been one of the few things keeping inflation in check. We also discuss saber rattling as it relates to Greenland, whose...
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Christmas Present
Tea and Crumpets
We take a detour into the Dickensian in evaluating the state of the economy. First, the recent inflation print, which showed a significant decline in the level of price increases, was a fiction worthy of Dickens, with the majority of the data simply made up as a result of the government shutdown. Setting that aside, since 2021, wage growth has not kept pace with inflation for food, shelter, and services, though we can count our blessings that at least alcohol prices have not increased as much… Challenges face the Fed chair (both current and yet to come), and managing a deteriorating labor...
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Ish
Tea and Crumpets
After Thanksgiving, we take a look at poultry, especially how dove-ish the Fed is now expected to be, a sharp reversal from a few weeks ago. We also discuss the odds-on favorite for the next Fed chair and how his political leanings may (or may not) influence which direction the Fed takes. Recent employment data has been lackluster, to put it mildly, which is forcing the Fed’s hand as it relates to continued cuts. To wit: Total change in private employment – Negative 32k Manufacturing and construction – Negative 27k Small businesses – Negative 100k Wage growth, especially for lower...
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I Have Two Gavels. One for Each of You.
Tea and Crumpets
After a long hiatus (no, not related to the government shutdown) we return with a look at the economy and markets. On the economic front, despite a lack of formal data, signs point to a weakening labor market. Consumers in the bottom 80% have spending post-Covid that has barely kept pace with inflation, with prices higher by around 25% since 2020. Unemployment has climbed to over 9% for those between 20 and 24 years of age. All these are signs of a K-shaped economic recovery, with a strong stock market supporting higher spending for those in the top 20% of incomes. The Fed faces a challenge...
info_outlineAfter a brief hiatus (courtesy of a historic Southern ice storm), Adam and Will return to find an index-level market that looks deceptively calm—roughly flat since their last episode—while significant damage has been done beneath the surface to individual stocks. The disconnect between index stability and individual-stock carnage is the central thread of the episode.
The first major topic is AI capital expenditure. Most of the Mag 7 have committed to spending at a scale that would have seemed absurd just a few years ago, and the market, which once rewarded this enthusiasm, has begun to question it as free cash flow risks turning negative within a few years if spending continues at its current pace. The notable exception is Apple, which has largely preserved its free cash flow and financial engineering by not scaling its own AI infrastructure—instead positioning itself as a passive beneficiary of AI-driven hardware upgrade cycles as older devices become too underpowered to run next-generation software.
Software companies have been the most punished segment, with the market essentially pricing in near-zero terminal value for many names a decade out, despite those same companies still showing solid guidance in the near term. The AI disruption narrative has swept indiscriminately through software, insurance, and financial services, producing days where a significant slice of S&P 500 stocks fell sharply while the index itself stayed within striking distance of all-time highs. The hosts note that the damage at the individual stock level has been dramatically worse than what the indices suggest—the average constituent in growth-oriented indices has seen drawdowns many times deeper than the headline numbers.
A discussion of retail trading platforms—using Robinhood as a proxy—puts the individual investor experience in stark context: the average Robinhood trader has seen only modest gains over the past several years before taxes, a period in which simply indexing would have produced dramatically better results. The hosts draw a parallel to horse racing: people are generous in recounting their winners and silent about everything else. Incoming tax refund season may temporarily reflate the most speculative corners of the market, but the hosts are skeptical this represents durable demand.
The conversation ends on a more somber note around the K-shaped economy. Job growth has been concentrated in narrow sectors, consumer sentiment remains poor, healthcare costs are crushing small businesses, and AI is beginning to erode entry-level employment. The hosts express genuine concern that a large segment of the population—still financially scarred from COVID—is being further squeezed while capital markets continue to reward those who already have assets. Whether and how that tension resolves is left as an open and uncomfortable question.
Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.