Currents of Change

We kick off season five of The Subverse, focused on the element of ‘air’, with host Susan Mathews in conversation with Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, India. Roxy has made breakthrough contributions to the research, monitoring, and modelling of climate and extreme weather events over the Indo-Pacific region. His work has advanced the scientific understanding of monsoon floods and droughts, terrestrial and marine heatwaves, and cyclones, facilitating the food, water, and economic security of the region. His recent research focuses on developing climate-smart health warning systems that integrate climate and health data with AI/ML to enable early action and long-term planning. Roxy actively collaborates with citizen science networks, local governments, and media to bring science to society. 

Roxy starts by explaining that the average atmospheric temperature rise of 1.2 to 1.5 degrees doesn’t tell the whole story. 93% of the heat produced by anthropogenic climate change is absorbed and contained by the oceans; the heat we feel is only 7% of it. Even this is also not equally distributed over time or space. The tropics, and regions like India which are surrounded by warming oceans, experience more heat. The changes in gradients in the temperature affects the paths of atmospheric jet streams and ocean currents that distribute heat, which changes the rhythm of the seasons, intensifying monsoons and increasing heat waves. The Indian Ocean, bordered by 40 countries that are home to a third of the global population, is warming faster than other oceans and moving to a near permanent marine heat wave state. Corals, on which 25% of the marine biodiversity depends, are the first to die in these heatwaves, losing their protective symbiotic algae. And this affects the numbers and species of phytoplankton, which produce half the oxygen we breath, and there are cascading impacts through the food chain. 

He emphasises, however, that climate change is not the only factor in these changes. Industrial fishing has resulted in more depletion of fish than temperature changes. Flooding in India is caused not just by climate change but also rapid and unplanned urbanization and other local changes, but politicians will only blame the former. In the USA, they don’t focus on climate change because they have a historical responsibility. The world is polarized and the narratives around climate change are selective based on alliances, but we need to have a comprehensive view. 

There is hope, Roxy says. If we can use the data that we have to understand the heat waves over the land and ocean, we can adapt and safeguard the ecosystems and our own lives. If we act now, we can have different socioeconomic pathways for the future. Data is key to making these changes. Roxy’s pet project is to make every school in India a weather station, starting with tools as simple as a plastic bottle to measure rainfall, because if children grow up with an awareness of how the climate is changing, they can adapt. 

While a lot of the focus is on climate mitigation, this is outside the scope of the individual, or even a single country, and the necessary global cooperation doesn’t exist. Roxy reminds us, however, that adaptation is something that can and needs to be done locally. We can track local data, project this data into the future, and prepare our homes, farmlands, and our daily life for a climate changed world. Roxy is that unusual blend of rigorous scientist and amazing science communicator, who speaks with empathy, heart and an outlook prioritizing action and deeds.

This conversation was also proof of something I have found in this elemental journey in the past few years. Quoting John Muir, “When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the Universe.”  

This season of The Subverse has been produced by Tushar Das. A special thank you to Julian Wey for access to his Qumquat studio and Daniel Schwenger for his assistance. 

More about the guest: 

Roxy Koll did his Ph.D. in Ocean and Atmospheric Dynamics from Hokkaido University, Japan. He is a Lead Author of the IPCC Reports and the former Chair of the Indian Ocean Region Panel. He received the Rashtriya Vigyan Puraskar (National Science Award), the highest recognition in the field of science, technology and innovation in India, from the President of India in 2024. He was conferred a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and was awarded the AGU Devendra Lal Medal for outstanding research in Earth and Space Sciences in 2022. He is among the top 2% scientists ranked by Stanford University. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences awarded him the Kavli Fellowship in 2015 and the NRC Senior Research Fellowship in 2018. The Indian Meteorological Society felicitated him with the Young Scientist Award in 2016 for his research on the changes in the Monsoon.

You can follow Roxy on X, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Read more about his work here.