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How to Model Office Risk When Income Is Variable

Brave Ideas

Release Date: 07/23/2025

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đź“ş Watch the full episode EXCLUSIVELY on BraveIdeas.media

Turning volatility into strategy in office real estate with Sam Gamble, CoFounder of Return Suite

This episode is made possible by ReturnSuite:
”Complex Cash Flow Modeling Simplified.”

 

Maybe this was the only "Monte Carlo" chat at MIPIM...

How do you model risk when your revenue isn’t fixed,
and your building no longer fits traditional valuation models?

In this data-rich episode, Sam Gamble, CoFounder of ReturnSuite, joins Brave Corp CEO Caleb Parker live from Cannes, France to unpack why the future of office investing needs a whole new underwriting playbook.

As flexible workspace, hybrid leases, and service-led operations reshape how buildings generate income, the old ways of modeling risk just don’t cut it. Sam explains how ReturnSuite’s probabilistic forecasting tools — including Monte Carlo simulations — can help owners, investors, and operators make smarter decisions, even in uncertain markets.

They also reflect on what they heard (and didn’t hear) at MIPIM, and how the capital stack needs to evolve to support operational real estate.

 

Key Topics:

  • Modeling volatility in office with Monte Carlo simulations

  • Why traditional underwriting no longer fits flex models

  • Replacing static assumptions with dynamic forecasts

  • Structuring leases to align incentives and reduce risk

  • Building investor confidence in operational income

 

Who should watch:
Landlords, developers, asset managers, investment analysts, brokers, flex operators, capital partners, and anyone rethinking how to underwrite, fund, or scale flexible office models.

 

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For behind the scenes, visit https://open.substack.com/pub/bravecorpideas/p/how-to-model-office-risk-when-income?r=d1yie&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true 

đź’ˇ This episode is part of Brave Ideas Season 15, exploring brave ideas shaping the future of office real estate, coworking, and workplace experience.

👉 Don’t forget to subscribe, like, and drop a comment with your take on Sam's ideas for modeling risk in operational real estate.