Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes | 3 Fed Cuts? | Atlanta Fed GDP Now Collapses | Tariffs | Listener Emails
Release Date: 03/10/2025
Nick Magguilli NY Times Best Selling Author on the Wealth Ladder | The Fed Cuts So Now What?
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Nick Magguillia Interview – NY Times Bestselling Author on his new book The Wealth Ladder is our special guest this week. This wound up being a great conversation about personal finance, wealth, and looking at data differently. Later, Derek comes back on to discuss the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates, the historical spread between the 30-Yr Mortgage and the 10YR Treasury. Nick Magguilli Interview on The Wealth Ladder What are the different levels of wealth? What does each level of wealth mean for people? Does money buy happiness? Mobility across the wealth ladders Looking at data...
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Would A Fed Rate Cut Matter? | Employment Revised Lower | Gold Reaches ATH | Inflation Expectations Drop | Largest 1-Day Single Stock Moves Higher
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Derek Moore, Shane Skinner, and Mike Snyder team up to discuss whether a Fed rate cut matters as much as people seem to think, especially given that most people have mortgages locked in lower. Plus, reviewing the revised lower employment numbers and whether the economy is truly slowing. ORCL moved 40% higher at one point in a single day, but what other large companies have moved that much? Later, based on U-Mich surveys, inflation expectations are dropping while Gold reaches a new all-time high even on an inflation adjusted basis. All this and more this week. ORCL single day move...
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Recession Indicators | Gold Oil Ratio | Fed Cut Probabilities Jump | Net Profit Margins By Decade
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Derek Moore and Shane Skinner talk about the rally in gold no one seems to care about and the gold oil ratio. Then, they go through the indicators used to determine recessions and note they don’t seem that bad, although nonfarm payrolls did disappoint. But private sector jobs are growing while the government jobs are falling, so are fed cuts greenlit? Later, looking at S&P 500 net income margin percentage average per decade. Yup, they’ve been rising each decade. Finally, looking at forward PE ratios against forward EPS and how some stocks like Broadcom got cheaper after last...
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Is Nvidia Getting Cheaper? | No Inflation | New Entrants to S&P 500 Index | Flows Into Ethereum ETFs
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Derek Moore and Michael Snyder touch on Nvidia post earnings to see whether the options market go the expected moves right or not. Then, they explore Interactive Brokers replacing Walgreens in the S&P 500 Index and how new entrants are often a big, overlooked aspect of S&P earnings growth. Then, they once again check in on the Fed and PCE Inflation which while not dropping isn’t rising either. Later they look at how the Atlanta GDP Now model shows increasing growth while personal income is rising as well, so what could go wrong? Nvida post earnings options moves Why Nvidia...
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Fed Gets Dovish? | Post Election Year Cycle | Option Vanna Rally? | In the End its Earnings
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Derek Moore and Shane Skinner geek out on the second derivative option Greek Vanna to understand how implied volatility changes cause buying or selling in markets. Plus, does Powell and the Fed not care about inflation anymore? Later, examine the post-election year seasonality to see if we are entering a historically weak period. All that plus what happens historically in markets when the fed has long period between rate cuts, interest rate probabilities, how to understand why stocks go up or down (return attribution). What is Options Vanna? Why do implied volatility changes cause...
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MSTR vs Bitcoin (IBIT) | VIX Seasonality | No Tarif Inflation Yet | Stock Buyback Seasonality | Confusing PPI Report
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Derek Moore reviews the relative valuation between MSTR MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin ETF IBIT, plus deconstructing the recent PPI report which may not be the inflation problem many people initially thought. The VIX Index has seasonal patterns, and we are going into the season for increased historical VIX levels, but will history repeat itself? What about corporate buybacks seasonality and what it means for the stock market over the next two months. Derek also reviews how railroad stocks were once a way bigger percentage of the US stock market than the top stocks in the index are today....
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Comparing Bull Markets | Employment Revisions | Nvidia Options Implied Moves | Wall Street Targets Get Bullish
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Derek Moore and Mike Snyder compare the 2009 bull market to today plus Wall Street year end estimates get bullish again. Plus, What Nvidia’s options market is forecasting for implied moves around earnings. Later, explaining (or trying to) the revisions to the employment data, historical perspective, and the low response rates. All that and more as markets try to make another all-time high. 2009 Bull Market vs 2022 Non-Farm Payroll Downward Revisions Average Differential Between Final Estimate and Initial Estimates 30 Consecutive Downward Revisions Market Cycles and Market...
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Can You Really Retire on High Dividend Paying ETFs? |What Investors Get Wrong on Premium Selling High Dividend ETFs and Income | Are Assets More Correlated Today? | Index Weighting Concentration Over the Years
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Derek Moore and Shane Skinner get into how investors are looking at high dividend ETFs the wrong way as total return vs distribution yield is what matters. Plus, how to think about how much in dividends you can take out knowing its total return that drives the probability of assets lasting during distribution phase. Later, they look at correlations between different asset classes over the years and ask whether today they are way more positively correlated. They then delve into concentration today in stock indexes vs prior periods. You might be surprised by who were the highest waited stocks...
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Opendoor Meme Stock Mania Gamma Squeeze? | Bull Market Has Legs? | FOMC Fed Dissents Coming? | Options and Mag 7 Earnings
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Derek Moore and Mike Snyder get into why anyone was short Opendoor and how the options market is flashing crazy implied volatility. Plus, how volatility and price movement may cause market makers to buy shares known as a “Gamma Squeeze”. Later, they get into how the signs are there that this bull market might have more to run (or not). Oh, and let’s not forget to look at what the options market is forecasting for expected moves on Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple earnings next week. All this plus some recommendations this week. Short Interest on Opendoor Implied volatility in...
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Powell vs. Trump | Crazy Inflation Survey Expectations | US Stocks Overseas Revenue | Options and Tesla Earnings
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Derek Moore and Shane Skinner give their thoughts on the Fed, interest rates, and the Trump vs. Powell situation. Plus, looking at new data on how much revenue US companies derive from overseas markets. Later the talk about what many get wrong about where their stock market returns come from year over year plus those crazy surveys and inflation expectations. Finally, they talk about what the option market is expecting around TSLA earnings How long are Fed Governor terms? How long is the term of the Federal Reserve Chair? Where returns come from changes in revenues, margins, EPS,...
info_outlineDerek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds’ futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what’s the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they come back but this week we dig into everything markets and provide some historical context and whether there are bullish signs.
Peter Lynch on corrections from 1994
Comparing this drawdown to all the others since 2009
Why investors shouldn’t panic
Reminding everyone why it’s good to be hedged to ease your mind around corrections
What are options markets saying via the implied volatility levels and the Vix Index
Comparing 10 Day implied volatility on SPY options vs 90 Day implied volatility
The S&P 500 Index forward PE ration vs earnings estimates
Nvidia bear market territory despite earnings beats and falling Forward PE ratio
Washington DC new unemployment claims in perspective
The unemployment rate of 4.1 percent threads the needle
3 Fed Rate cuts now priced in 2025?
Value of hedging your portfolio
High yield has held up ok so far compared to the equity market
Earnings estimates are still higher, but will analysts cut them due to tariffs?
Uncertainty of Tariffs
Why the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast went negative
Balance of trade on exports minus imports due to tariffs gets really wide
Trade deficit expands
Mentioned in this Episode
Peter Lynch 1994 video talking about corrections in markets frequency https://zegainvestments.com/blog/for-investors-worried-about-market-corrections-this-is-why-you-hedge-so-that-you-can-worry-less
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT