Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes | 3 Fed Cuts? | Atlanta Fed GDP Now Collapses | Tariffs | Listener Emails
Release Date: 03/10/2025
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Joining S&P 500 Index? | S&P 500 Index Turnover Matters | Fed Does Nothing, but Should They Have? | Inflation Nowcast
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Derek Moore discusses whether MSTR MicroStrategy will wind up in the S&P 500 Index and do we want that given it just holds bitcoin with some ratio between its intrinsic value and the MSTR market cap. Plus, where to look for upcoming prospects for the S&P 500 Index and why the index is actively not passively managed and changes can drive earnings growth. Later, Derek talks through what the Fed did (nothing) and whether they are wrong or not to keep rates steady. MSTR MicroStrategy potential to join the S&P 500 Index? Requirements for a company to enter the S&P 500...
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Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed Rate Cuts? | Unemployment Was Fine | Sell in May? | S&P 500 After Near Bear Markets 1-Year Later
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Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1’s more negative print. Hint, it’s those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn’t gone back up so why won’t they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus some volatility talk. Components of GDP Net exports calculation When markets have a near bear market how much on average is the market higher 1-year later? What...
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Is The Bottom In? | Now They Change Their S&P 500 Targets | Apple Earnings Implied Volatility Expected Move |
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Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple’s implied volatility is forecasting what as an expected 1 standard deviation move. Keeping perspective on the markets as the media talks about ends of eras and more. Apple earnings implied volatility What is...
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Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield Spreads Not Recession Levels | Flight to Quality Trades Not Working | No the VIX Is Not Predicting Actual Moves Still
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Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren’t working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even...
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Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market Yields Spike | Bitcoin and S&P 500 10 Day Volatility is Equal Wow!
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Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week. Bitcoin volatility vs SPY volatility Did the market bottom this week? Comparing volatility in March 2020 to...
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Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market Territory | Buying Opportunity?| Don’t Make Emotional Decisions
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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Puck to compare this selloff to others like 2020, 1998, 2015, 2000 and more. Then they talk about how the Trump administration is arriving at their tariff percentages. Later, they discus how the market didn’t price in the eventual announcement. How things like the VIX Index and the High Yield Bond spread Thursday weren’t high enough. Did the market miscalculate the tariff announcement? What is the sentiment among advisors and investors from what we are hearing and are we at max panic yet plus the continued case for hedging. When do we...
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Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP Now | S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update | Useless Fed Dot Plots | 1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet | Implied Volatility
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Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more this week. Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here Inflation...
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Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots
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Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more. Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months AAII Bull...
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Max Bearishness at a Bottom? | VIX Curve Inversion | Nvidia Rallies | Dollar Problem Solved? | Fear and Greed Index | Consumer Sentiment Indicator is Worthless
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Derek Moore is back to break down the wild week including Nvidia rallying when against the bearish tide. How the US Dollar index pulling back might be bullish for earnings. Plus, have we reached max panic and max bearishness setting up for a near term bottom in markets? Later, looking at the Fear and Greed Index, the VIX Inversion and what that means for markets, and why people are now bullish or bearish based on politics. All that and more! Fear and Greed Index Drawdowns vs full year market performance US Dollar index US Trade Weighed Dollar Index University of Michigan Sentiment...
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Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes | 3 Fed Cuts? | Atlanta Fed GDP Now Collapses | Tariffs | Listener Emails
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Derek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds’ futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what’s the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they...
info_outlineDerek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds’ futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what’s the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they come back but this week we dig into everything markets and provide some historical context and whether there are bullish signs.
Peter Lynch on corrections from 1994
Comparing this drawdown to all the others since 2009
Why investors shouldn’t panic
Reminding everyone why it’s good to be hedged to ease your mind around corrections
What are options markets saying via the implied volatility levels and the Vix Index
Comparing 10 Day implied volatility on SPY options vs 90 Day implied volatility
The S&P 500 Index forward PE ration vs earnings estimates
Nvidia bear market territory despite earnings beats and falling Forward PE ratio
Washington DC new unemployment claims in perspective
The unemployment rate of 4.1 percent threads the needle
3 Fed Rate cuts now priced in 2025?
Value of hedging your portfolio
High yield has held up ok so far compared to the equity market
Earnings estimates are still higher, but will analysts cut them due to tariffs?
Uncertainty of Tariffs
Why the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast went negative
Balance of trade on exports minus imports due to tariffs gets really wide
Trade deficit expands
Mentioned in this Episode
Peter Lynch 1994 video talking about corrections in markets frequency https://zegainvestments.com/blog/for-investors-worried-about-market-corrections-this-is-why-you-hedge-so-that-you-can-worry-less
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT