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Broken Pie Chart

Release Date: 03/31/2025

Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield Spreads Not Recession Levels | Flight to Quality Trades Not Working | No the VIX Is Not Predicting Actual Moves Still

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren’t working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even...

Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market Yields Spike | Bitcoin and S&P 500 10 Day Volatility is Equal Wow!

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week. Bitcoin volatility vs SPY volatility Did the market bottom this week? Comparing volatility in March 2020 to...

Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market Territory | Buying Opportunity?| Don’t Make Emotional Decisions

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Puck to compare this selloff to others like 2020, 1998, 2015, 2000 and more. Then they talk about how the Trump administration is arriving at their tariff percentages. Later, they discus how the market didn’t price in the eventual announcement. How things like the VIX Index and the High Yield Bond spread Thursday weren’t high enough. Did the market miscalculate the tariff announcement? What is the sentiment among advisors and investors from what we are hearing and are we at max panic yet plus the continued case for hedging. When do we...

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more this week. Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here Inflation...

Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator | VIX Index to Be Normal Soon? | Useless Fed Dot Plots

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more. Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return Comments on AQR post on Buffered funds VIX Index vs VIX Futures in the coming months AAII Bull...

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is back to break down the wild week including Nvidia rallying when against the bearish tide. How the US Dollar index pulling back might be bullish for earnings. Plus, have we reached max panic and max bearishness setting up for a near term bottom in markets? Later, looking at the Fear and Greed Index, the VIX Inversion and what that means for markets, and why people are now bullish or bearish based on politics. All that and more! Fear and Greed Index Drawdowns vs full year market performance US Dollar index US Trade Weighed Dollar Index University of Michigan Sentiment...

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds’ futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what’s the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener question and read a sad email from an avid listener who is boycotting the show. We hope they...

Investors Get Bearish |Nvidia Earnings | Implied Volatility Broadcom | Effective Tariff Increase | Mag 7 Correction

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore goes through last week’s pullback and Nvidia’s post earnings move. Then, looking at the AAII survey where investors got really bearish. Later, he looks at how the Mag 7 hasn’t made a new high since December but other things have. The yields are dropping at the same time forward PE ratios are lower after a slight increase in forward earnings expectations and the market dropping down. Nvidia kills earnings but sells off proving investing is hard Treasury yields ease Mag 7 vs the total world stock market ETFs Forward PE levels drop as markets retrace while...

Higher Jan & Feb Means Bull Continues? | Broadening Market Outside Mag 7 | Profit Margins Rising | International Outperforming | Nvidia Options & Earnings

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore and Mike Puck talk about the resurgence of international stocks against the US. Plus, how the rest of the market has a similar performance to the Mag 7, indicating a broadening out of stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Later, they discuss what markets historically have done after being up in January and February. Profit margins are rising outside the Mag 7 names and looking at the expected Nvidia move around earnings based upon the implied volatility levels. S&P 500 Index 493 vs the Mag 7 year to date International stocks including emerging markets and developed...

Bond Rates Staying Higher | Forward PE Multiples | Implied Volatility During Earnings | Nominal GDP vs 10 Year Yield

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore revisits the 1994-95 interest rate and market environment against the current backdrop regarding treasury yields and future S&P 500 Index returns. Plus, going through the case for higher for longer, whether that is good or bad for markets, and the adjustment the market would need to go through. Later, quantifying how sensitive the S&P 500 Index is to change in the forward PE ratio by putting into actual numbers and levels. Also, looking at Arista Networks and Alibaba before earnings and what the options market is saying their expected one standard deviation moves might be...

More Episodes

Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without

a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the

actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the

stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank

lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings

outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now

model? Tune in for this and more this week.

Recession or not in next year may determine market returns from here

Inflation Head Fake but everyone worries

S&P 500 Index Year End Target Update as Barclays lowers EPS and price targets

1 YR Stock Market Expectations Plummet over the last 2 months, largest in 40 years

Implied Volatility pointing to 1.5% 1 standard deviation daily moves in S&P 500

Market sentiment is in the dumpster but is it too much given where markets are?

Markets got back down to over -9% pullback from all-time high

Mentioned in this Episode

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab1

ECON PI http://econpi.com/index.php

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [email protected]

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