Situational Markets — The Framework That Replaces Traditional Market Strategy

The Experience Strategy Podcast | theexperiencestrategist.substack.com

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Part two of a four-part mini-series unpacking the frameworks in Dave Norton's new book, Human Context: How Intelligent Companies Build Customers.

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Every time you segment your target audience by who they are, you limit the number of people who could buy from you. That's the uncomfortable truth at the center of this episode — and the reason situational markets may be the most practically disruptive framework in Human Context. Dave and Joe trace the idea from Joe's original "markets within" concept through to how AI is already forcing companies to make this shift whether they're ready or not.

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What's in This Episode

Where the idea came from: Joe Pine's "markets within" framework. Joe developed a framework he calls the bow tie — narrow in the middle, wide on both ends. On the left is the traditional marketing view: a company has a market, which it segments into smaller groups. On the right is the insight that flips everything: there are multiple markets within each individual customer. We want different things at different times, in different situations, in different contexts. The pivot point — where the bow tie narrows — is the recognition that every customer is their own market. Situational markets is Dave's extension of that idea into something companies can operationalize.

The Amazon account problem as a live demonstration. Joe and his wife share an Amazon account. She buys Kindle fiction. He buys business and theology books. Amazon treats them as one customer and gets it wrong for both of them — recommendations that belong to one land with the other, constantly. Dave's point: even without the shared account problem, you and Joe are essentially the same demographic. Similar age, same household. Classic targeting tools wouldn't distinguish you at all. That's exactly what's broken. The situation — who's shopping, for what, in what mindset — is the only thing that actually tells you something useful.

Every time you segment the "who," you shrink the market. Dave landed on this as one of the book's most clarifying insights. Six demographic segments means six defined targets — and an unknown number of people excluded because they show up in the situation sometimes but don't fit the profile always. Situational markets are inclusive by design: anyone who finds themselves in the situation is a potential customer. You're not narrowing to a type of person. You're identifying a moment that any type of person can enter.

This is what Clayton Christensen was pointing at. Dave connects situational markets to Christensen's "Marketing Malpractice" — the argument that the job, not the customer, is the unit of analysis. Christensen developed this through Jobs to Be Done. Dave's situational markets framework arrives at the same threshold from a different direction: stop asking who your customer is, start asking what situation they're in. The analytical tools that worked for demographic segmentation — sizing, prioritization, value creation — all transfer. The difference is you're no longer excluding people who don't fit a profile.

What a situational market actually is. Three elements:

1. A when statement. "When I am making a hotel reservation." "When I want restaurant-quality pizza at home." "When I want water at a concert but don't drink alcohol and want to look cool." The when statement creates a boundary around the context — something specific enough to design for.
2. The who stays generic. As generic as possible. The situation defines the entry point. Don't pre-filter by demographic.
3. Size it. A situation isn't a market until you can size it. It also needs to be a situation the customer actually wants to hire you for — not just something that arises. Dave spends significant time in the book on how to size situational markets, because that's what separates a use case from a genuine market opportunity.

Three types of situations. Obvious situations — making a hotel reservation, back-to-school shopping, holiday gifting — are already well-understood and competed over. Less obvious situations are where differentiation lives. And then there are externally-driven situations: COVID is the clearest example, a time-bound, universal situational market that few companies were built to serve and even fewer anticipated.

The examples that make it concrete.

• Liquid Death — built entirely around the situation of wanting water at a concert without alcohol and without a plastic bottle, while still looking like you fit in. The situation defined the product, the design, and the brand.
• Ooni pizza ovens — when I want restaurant-quality pizza at home. Aransas's read: it's less about the pizza than about looking like you know how to make one. Either way, the situation is specific, sizeable, and worth designing for.
• Google Search — what if Google had decided academics were the primary users and targeted accordingly? Instead, they said: whenever someone needs to find something efficiently, that's the situation. That openness is the whole point.

AI is already forcing this shift — from the customer side. In 2024, 4% of prospective students used AI to choose their school. In 2025, that number was 25%. What are they typing? "I want a school where I can finish my degree as fast as possible while staying home." They're describing a situation. The AI is comparing schools against that situation. If companies haven't built their positioning around situational markets, the AI will sort them anyway — based on whatever signals it can find. The shift is already happening. Companies that get ahead of it will have a real advantage.

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This Is Part Two of Four

The next two mini-episodes continue unpacking the frameworks in Human Context:

• Part 3: Modes
• Part 4: Time Value

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Get the Book

Human Context: How Intelligent Companies Build Customers by Dave Norton is available now on Amazon (Kindle and print) and on Dave's Substack. Ten industry-specific workbooks — including how to identify and size situational markets in your category — are available alongside the book.

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Find the hosts by name or as The Experience Strategist at theexperiencestrategist.substack.com.