Can You Really Retire on High Dividend Paying ETFs? |What Investors Get Wrong on Premium Selling High Dividend ETFs and Income | Are Assets More Correlated Today? | Index Weighting Concentration Over the Years
Release Date: 08/04/2025
Nick Magguilli NY Times Best Selling Author on the Wealth Ladder | The Fed Cuts So Now What?
Broken Pie Chart
Nick Magguillia Interview – NY Times Bestselling Author on his new book The Wealth Ladder is our special guest this week. This wound up being a great conversation about personal finance, wealth, and looking at data differently. Later, Derek comes back on to discuss the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates, the historical spread between the 30-Yr Mortgage and the 10YR Treasury. Nick Magguilli Interview on The Wealth Ladder What are the different levels of wealth? What does each level of wealth mean for people? Does money buy happiness? Mobility across the wealth ladders Looking at data...
info_outline
Would A Fed Rate Cut Matter? | Employment Revised Lower | Gold Reaches ATH | Inflation Expectations Drop | Largest 1-Day Single Stock Moves Higher
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore, Shane Skinner, and Mike Snyder team up to discuss whether a Fed rate cut matters as much as people seem to think, especially given that most people have mortgages locked in lower. Plus, reviewing the revised lower employment numbers and whether the economy is truly slowing. ORCL moved 40% higher at one point in a single day, but what other large companies have moved that much? Later, based on U-Mich surveys, inflation expectations are dropping while Gold reaches a new all-time high even on an inflation adjusted basis. All this and more this week. ORCL single day move...
info_outline
Recession Indicators | Gold Oil Ratio | Fed Cut Probabilities Jump | Net Profit Margins By Decade
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner talk about the rally in gold no one seems to care about and the gold oil ratio. Then, they go through the indicators used to determine recessions and note they don’t seem that bad, although nonfarm payrolls did disappoint. But private sector jobs are growing while the government jobs are falling, so are fed cuts greenlit? Later, looking at S&P 500 net income margin percentage average per decade. Yup, they’ve been rising each decade. Finally, looking at forward PE ratios against forward EPS and how some stocks like Broadcom got cheaper after last...
info_outline
Is Nvidia Getting Cheaper? | No Inflation | New Entrants to S&P 500 Index | Flows Into Ethereum ETFs
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Michael Snyder touch on Nvidia post earnings to see whether the options market go the expected moves right or not. Then, they explore Interactive Brokers replacing Walgreens in the S&P 500 Index and how new entrants are often a big, overlooked aspect of S&P earnings growth. Then, they once again check in on the Fed and PCE Inflation which while not dropping isn’t rising either. Later they look at how the Atlanta GDP Now model shows increasing growth while personal income is rising as well, so what could go wrong? Nvida post earnings options moves Why Nvidia...
info_outline
Fed Gets Dovish? | Post Election Year Cycle | Option Vanna Rally? | In the End its Earnings
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner geek out on the second derivative option Greek Vanna to understand how implied volatility changes cause buying or selling in markets. Plus, does Powell and the Fed not care about inflation anymore? Later, examine the post-election year seasonality to see if we are entering a historically weak period. All that plus what happens historically in markets when the fed has long period between rate cuts, interest rate probabilities, how to understand why stocks go up or down (return attribution). What is Options Vanna? Why do implied volatility changes cause...
info_outline
MSTR vs Bitcoin (IBIT) | VIX Seasonality | No Tarif Inflation Yet | Stock Buyback Seasonality | Confusing PPI Report
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore reviews the relative valuation between MSTR MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin ETF IBIT, plus deconstructing the recent PPI report which may not be the inflation problem many people initially thought. The VIX Index has seasonal patterns, and we are going into the season for increased historical VIX levels, but will history repeat itself? What about corporate buybacks seasonality and what it means for the stock market over the next two months. Derek also reviews how railroad stocks were once a way bigger percentage of the US stock market than the top stocks in the index are today....
info_outline
Comparing Bull Markets | Employment Revisions | Nvidia Options Implied Moves | Wall Street Targets Get Bullish
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Mike Snyder compare the 2009 bull market to today plus Wall Street year end estimates get bullish again. Plus, What Nvidia’s options market is forecasting for implied moves around earnings. Later, explaining (or trying to) the revisions to the employment data, historical perspective, and the low response rates. All that and more as markets try to make another all-time high. 2009 Bull Market vs 2022 Non-Farm Payroll Downward Revisions Average Differential Between Final Estimate and Initial Estimates 30 Consecutive Downward Revisions Market Cycles and Market...
info_outline
Can You Really Retire on High Dividend Paying ETFs? |What Investors Get Wrong on Premium Selling High Dividend ETFs and Income | Are Assets More Correlated Today? | Index Weighting Concentration Over the Years
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner get into how investors are looking at high dividend ETFs the wrong way as total return vs distribution yield is what matters. Plus, how to think about how much in dividends you can take out knowing its total return that drives the probability of assets lasting during distribution phase. Later, they look at correlations between different asset classes over the years and ask whether today they are way more positively correlated. They then delve into concentration today in stock indexes vs prior periods. You might be surprised by who were the highest waited stocks...
info_outline
Opendoor Meme Stock Mania Gamma Squeeze? | Bull Market Has Legs? | FOMC Fed Dissents Coming? | Options and Mag 7 Earnings
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Mike Snyder get into why anyone was short Opendoor and how the options market is flashing crazy implied volatility. Plus, how volatility and price movement may cause market makers to buy shares known as a “Gamma Squeeze”. Later, they get into how the signs are there that this bull market might have more to run (or not). Oh, and let’s not forget to look at what the options market is forecasting for expected moves on Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple earnings next week. All this plus some recommendations this week. Short Interest on Opendoor Implied volatility in...
info_outline
Powell vs. Trump | Crazy Inflation Survey Expectations | US Stocks Overseas Revenue | Options and Tesla Earnings
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore and Shane Skinner give their thoughts on the Fed, interest rates, and the Trump vs. Powell situation. Plus, looking at new data on how much revenue US companies derive from overseas markets. Later the talk about what many get wrong about where their stock market returns come from year over year plus those crazy surveys and inflation expectations. Finally, they talk about what the option market is expecting around TSLA earnings How long are Fed Governor terms? How long is the term of the Federal Reserve Chair? Where returns come from changes in revenues, margins, EPS,...
info_outlineDerek Moore and Shane Skinner get into how investors are looking at high dividend ETFs the wrong way as total return vs distribution yield is what matters. Plus, how to think about how much in dividends you can take out knowing its total return that drives the probability of assets lasting during distribution phase. Later, they look at correlations between different asset classes over the years and ask whether today they are way more positively correlated. They then delve into concentration today in stock indexes vs prior periods. You might be surprised by who were the highest waited stocks throughout the years.
Dividend Yield vs Total Return
Implied volatility in the options for Opendoor
Sequence of return risks during withdrawals
Tradeoff between premium selling and upside capture
Ordinary income vs capital gains and losses
Can investors really live off dividends?
Understanding the risks of concentration in asset deployment
Cross asset correlation
Comparing correlations over different periods in history
Have stocks and bonds become more correlated?
Nvidia and Microsoft are the highest 2 stock concentration in the Dow Jones Index?
Surprising companies that have been the highest weighted in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Indexes
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek [email protected]