Can You Really Retire on High Dividend Paying ETFs? |What Investors Get Wrong on Premium Selling High Dividend ETFs and Income | Are Assets More Correlated Today? | Index Weighting Concentration Over the Years
Release Date: 08/04/2025
OpenAI IPO | Michael Saylor’s Strategy’s Bitcoin Strategy Reframed | Michael Burry on Mag 7 Earnings Quality | NVDA Earnings Options Volatility
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder this week to talk about people’s reaction to Michael Burry’s comments on earnings quality in the Mag 7 companies, talk of the OpenAI IPO, and Nvidia’s options ahead of earnings week. Plus, they reframe the idea of Strategy buying Bitcoin by using an alternative example. What if they held Apple stock instead? All this and much more this week. Michael Burry suggests depreciation and accounting adjustments driving earnings in Mag 7 OpenAI most anticipated IPO since Snapple in the early nineties? What if AI technology is a...
info_outline
S&P 500 Stocks Dispersion | Small Caps Outflows | NVDA Implied Volatility | Market Re-Rating Forward PE Ratio
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder where they look at the dispersion happening within the S&P 500 Index November to date. Then, they discuss the outflows ongoing for the small caps and what if anything that means. Later, looking at the effects of earnings on Nvidia’s option prices, Apple’s outlier as the strongest of the Mag 7 this week, and reviewing how the market re-rating caused the market to ease even though another record forward earnings expectation number from analysts. Not all Mag-7 stocks are acting in unison NVDA implied volatility comparison...
info_outline
Hindenburg Omen | MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin | CAPE Ratio and Forward Returns | No More Tariff Tantrum?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss the Hindenburg Omen and what that means for the stock market. Plus, looking at whether the Tariff trade has been completely wrong. Later, the best six months of the year are here, problems with using CAPE Ration to predict forward returns, permabears, and examining whether MicroStrategy (Strategy) is starting to not make sense to investors. All that plus looking at Semiconductors cycle against the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 Index. Tariff trade MicroStrategy (Strategy) vs Bitcoin trade Enterprise value of MicroStrategy vs intrinsic value of...
info_outline
AAPL MSFT META GOOG Earnings Volatility | 5% Mortgage Rates Coming? | No Inflation Despite Tariffs | 7000 Up Next for S&P 500 Index?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss the upcoming huge week in earnings and where the options markets rank the big 4 this week for implied moves. Then, they ask the question of what would need to happen to see 30-year mortgage rates slip lower to 5%. Later, they review the latest (albeit late) CPI figures and note, despite tariffs, no surge in inflation. All this and more plus a couple of recommendations. Implied volatility around earnings AAPL MSFT META GOOG Spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield Spread narrowing plus...
info_outline
VIX Too High? | SCOTUS Tariff Decision Looming | TSLA vs INTC Implied Volatility | Regional Bank Trouble?
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether the VIX Index is too high based on market movements. Plus, is the regional bank trouble really trouble for the stock market? Later, looking at implied volatility on TSLA and INTC ahead of earnings. Finally, why no one is talking about the November 5th SCOTUS hearing on the Trump Tariffs. All that and much more this week. Implied volatility around earnings SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States) upcoming tariff hearing on November 5th TSLA vs INTC options implied volatility Regional banks have a tough...
info_outline
Tariff Tumble | Historical Anomaly Gold vs Oil | Buying Opportunity or Continuation of Weakness? | Volatility Ahead of SCOTUS Tariff Hearing
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to talk about Friday’s tumble in stocks after the 100% China tariffs were announced. More to come or another buying opportunity? Plus, looking at the anomaly of gold being up but oil being down in the same year. Market doesn’t care about the government shutdown. Volatility brewing through the Nov 5th Supreme Court tariff review? 100% Tariffs proposed on China Stocks finally have a bad day SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States) upcoming tariff hearing on November 5th Gold up but oil down so is that a historical anomaly? Is this another buy...
info_outline
Are We in a Bubble? | Top 10 Companies by Decade | Gold Historic Return YTD | Performance During Government Shutdowns
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Syder this week to talk about market performance during government shutdowns, gold’s historic YTD performance, and looking at how much turnover there is within the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 index. Plus, is ChatGPT causing a divergence in job growth since its release? Later, we discuss the increasing talk about whether we are in a bubble. Is the stock market in a Bubble? Gold’s YTD performance is in record territory ChatGPT as a jobs killer Government shutdowns and market performance Typical length of government shutdowns Full vs partial shut...
info_outline
Odds of Government Shutdowns | GDP Surprises to Upside | Volatility of Single Stocks vs the Index | New Pattern Day Trade Rules | Worst Stocks
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore is back with Shane Skinner and Mike Syder to talk about the odds of government shutdown and whether it is really that impactful to markets. Plus, GDP growth surprises to the upside including the latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast for next quarter, so what recession? Later, what are the worst performing stocks in 2025, homebuyer demand vs affordability by state, NDX single stock implied volatility vs NDX Index volatility, and whether the new pattern day trader rules will mean anything for markets. Real GDP growth surprises Atlanta Fed GDP Now Q3 jumps to new high Polymarket Odds...
info_outline
Nick Magguilli NY Times Best Selling Author on the Wealth Ladder | The Fed Cuts So Now What?
Broken Pie Chart
Nick Magguillia Interview – NY Times Bestselling Author on his new book The Wealth Ladder is our special guest this week. This wound up being a great conversation about personal finance, wealth, and looking at data differently. Later, Derek comes back on to discuss the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates, the historical spread between the 30-Yr Mortgage and the 10YR Treasury. Nick Magguilli Interview on The Wealth Ladder What are the different levels of wealth? What does each level of wealth mean for people? Does money buy happiness? Mobility across the wealth ladders Looking at data...
info_outline
Would A Fed Rate Cut Matter? | Employment Revised Lower | Gold Reaches ATH | Inflation Expectations Drop | Largest 1-Day Single Stock Moves Higher
Broken Pie Chart
Derek Moore, Shane Skinner, and Mike Snyder team up to discuss whether a Fed rate cut matters as much as people seem to think, especially given that most people have mortgages locked in lower. Plus, reviewing the revised lower employment numbers and whether the economy is truly slowing. ORCL moved 40% higher at one point in a single day, but what other large companies have moved that much? Later, based on U-Mich surveys, inflation expectations are dropping while Gold reaches a new all-time high even on an inflation adjusted basis. All this and more this week. ORCL single day move...
info_outlineDerek Moore and Shane Skinner get into how investors are looking at high dividend ETFs the wrong way as total return vs distribution yield is what matters. Plus, how to think about how much in dividends you can take out knowing its total return that drives the probability of assets lasting during distribution phase. Later, they look at correlations between different asset classes over the years and ask whether today they are way more positively correlated. They then delve into concentration today in stock indexes vs prior periods. You might be surprised by who were the highest waited stocks throughout the years.
Dividend Yield vs Total Return
Implied volatility in the options for Opendoor
Sequence of return risks during withdrawals
Tradeoff between premium selling and upside capture
Ordinary income vs capital gains and losses
Can investors really live off dividends?
Understanding the risks of concentration in asset deployment
Cross asset correlation
Comparing correlations over different periods in history
Have stocks and bonds become more correlated?
Nvidia and Microsoft are the highest 2 stock concentration in the Dow Jones Index?
Surprising companies that have been the highest weighted in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Indexes
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com