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Mag 7 Cap Ex Problem? | SpaceX vs Tesla | Earnings Implied Volatility AAPL vs MSFT | Lots of Dispersion in the S&P 500

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Release Date: 07/27/2026

Expected Q3 Earnings Growth of 27.2% | Forward P/Es: Poor Short-Term, Solid Long-Term Predictor | Vanguard’s 2019 Decade Ahead Forecast vs. Reality | Big Tech Capex vs. Free Cash Flow | SpaceX Options Volatility show art Expected Q3 Earnings Growth of 27.2% | Forward P/Es: Poor Short-Term, Solid Long-Term Predictor | Vanguard’s 2019 Decade Ahead Forecast vs. Reality | Big Tech Capex vs. Free Cash Flow | SpaceX Options Volatility

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner for episode 400 to ask whether markets are up below average this year, with data on the average S&P 500 up year vs. down year since 1950. Then, Citadel Securities breaks down where expected Q3 earnings growth of 27.2% is coming from, led by Micron and Nvidia. Are forward P/E ratios useful? They’re a poor predictor in the short term but a solid one over 10 years, plus a look back at Vanguard’s 2019 10-year return forecasts vs. the S&P 500’s +15.22% decade-to-date annualized return. Plus, big tech capex vs. free cash flow, high-yield and CCC...

info_outline 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.31% | Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record | Earnings Drive Returns as P/E Multiples Shrink | Dotcom Bubble vs. Today | Hidden Volatility in the Magnificent 7 show art 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.31% | Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record | Earnings Drive Returns as P/E Multiples Shrink | Dotcom Bubble vs. Today | Hidden Volatility in the Magnificent 7

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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to break down where 2026 equity returns are actually coming from. Exhibit A data shows earnings have powered the S&P 500 this year while P/E multiples have contracted. Are we in a bubble? Comparing forward P/Es of the dotcom-era blue chips to today’s leaders, plus the hidden volatility behind the Magnificent 7. Then, the 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.31% per Charlie Bilello as Eric Balchunas flags bond mutual fund outflows picking up steam. Redfin data shows home sellers now outnumber buyers by a record margin while contract...

info_outline US Dollar Purchasing Power | Yield Curve Recession Signal Failure? | Worst Treasury Returns in 100 Years | Midterm Election Year Sweet Spot for Equities? | Nike $NKE Chart Looks Like a Popped Bubble show art US Dollar Purchasing Power | Yield Curve Recession Signal Failure? | Worst Treasury Returns in 100 Years | Midterm Election Year Sweet Spot for Equities? | Nike $NKE Chart Looks Like a Popped Bubble

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at markets and what history says comes next. Plus, US Dollar loss of purchasing power illustrates the need to be invested. What about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) leading to a recession? Is it too far gone or still a chance? BofA Global Investment Strategy says Treasuries just posted their worst 10-year rolling returns in 100 years. Charles Schwab data shows Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% year-to-date as of October 1, while Utilities and Consumer Discretionary lag. Are we entering the best part of the...

info_outline SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit | S&P 500 Breadth Lowest Since Dot-Com | 59% of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Markets | Is Narrow Leadership a Warning? | Micron Implied Volatility and Earnings show art SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit | S&P 500 Breadth Lowest Since Dot-Com | 59% of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Markets | Is Narrow Leadership a Warning? | Micron Implied Volatility and Earnings

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  Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to dig into a market that looks healthy on the surface but tells a very different story underneath. S&P 500 breadth, measured by the gap between the index and its median stock relative to 52-week highs, just hit its narrowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble, according to a Marlin Capital chart based on Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research data. Meanwhile, as Don Durrett pointed out on Twitter, 59% of S&P 500 Index constituents are already more than 20% below their all-time highs, and 17% are down more than 50%. Is this a...

info_outline Semis & Hyperscalers Rocking | AAII Surveys Bearish | Will Fed Cause Yield Curve Inversion? | MLB Baseball ETFs show art Semis & Hyperscalers Rocking | AAII Surveys Bearish | Will Fed Cause Yield Curve Inversion? | MLB Baseball ETFs

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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner with the market pressing new all-time highs, semiconductors and hyperscalers ripping, and the dichotomy of bad soft data but positive hard data. Plus, is the Fed going to cause another yield curve inversion judging by the narrowing of spreads? Later, do we really need MLB baseball team etfs? All this and more this week including a contrarian indicator of bearish readings in the AAII investor surveys.     Warren Pies points out correlations between semis and hyperscalers at all-time lows If semis and hyperscalers get correlated...

info_outline Fed Big Mistake? | AI Companies Regulatory Capture? | Is the Market Getting Cheaper? | Markets and Midterms show art Fed Big Mistake? | AI Companies Regulatory Capture? | Is the Market Getting Cheaper? | Markets and Midterms

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Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss whether the Fed made a mistake raising interest rates considering the problem with CPI inflation is rising oil prices which is a supply side issue. Plus, the AI companies are sounding alarm bells about extinction level events. Is this a case of “We should be regulated and we’ll help you write the regulations” to edge out new competitors which is known as regulatory capture. Later, looking at markets that have continued to see a re-rating in multiples lower while earnings estimates are rising. All this and more this week....

info_outline Post Labor Day Market Stats | Growth vs Value Ratio at Key Level | Fed Interest Rate Probabilities | Oracle Earnings Options Implied Move | S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Ratio show art Post Labor Day Market Stats | Growth vs Value Ratio at Key Level | Fed Interest Rate Probabilities | Oracle Earnings Options Implied Move | S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Ratio

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Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and where forward earnings estimates and multiples sit on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. All that and more this week.     S&P 500 performance the day after Labor Day going...

info_outline September Seasonality in Midterm Years | High Alert Heading into September | Deficits vs Tax Rates | Mega Cap Winners and Losers | Forward P/E Check Dispersion show art September Seasonality in Midterm Years | High Alert Heading into September | Deficits vs Tax Rates | Mega Cap Winners and Losers | Forward P/E Check Dispersion

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Derek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward earnings check on Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Costco, and the S&P 500 itself. All that and more this week.     S&P 500 September performance in midterm election years going back...

info_outline Big Oil's Raining Free Cash Flow | Gold Near Getting Flows | Where Did Homebuyers Go? | Midterm Year Seasonality | Nvidia Earnings show art Big Oil's Raining Free Cash Flow | Gold Near Getting Flows | Where Did Homebuyers Go? | Midterm Year Seasonality | Nvidia Earnings

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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about Big Oil posting its best free cash flow quarter ever, $70 billion across the top five majors, without the war-driven price spike that powered the last record. Plus, gold pushing back higher as ETF flows return, the Citi global economic surprise index at its highest since 2022, an AI capex boom that lands as an import drag on GDP, midterm year seasonality, and a housing market where buyers have gone missing while prices sit at records. All that and more this week.     The top five international oil majors...

info_outline Mag 7 Valuation Gap Closes | Netscape Redux? | 32 NHL Team ETFs? | VIX Seasonality Setup show art Mag 7 Valuation Gap Closes | Netscape Redux? | 32 NHL Team ETFs? | VIX Seasonality Setup

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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about how valuations of the top stocks now have shrunk to those of the overall market, while tech and other Mag7 stocks valuations have come down while earnings expectations are up. Plus, record short positioning in Nasdaq-100 futures, gold fund flows picking back up, VIX seasonality heading into the autumn, and a filing for 32 NHL team ETFs. All that and more this week.     The forward P/E of the largest 10 S&P 500 companies has converged with the other 490. J.P. Morgan data shows the top 10 near 19.8x...

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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about whether the Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem compared to historical payout ratios. Then, they look at the relationship in price action between SpaceX and Tesla. Later, what does the options market say about next week’s Apple and Microsoft earnings reports? Oh yea, they touch on Strategy changing how it calculates the preferred STRC Sharp ratio, the US Dollar Index breaking out, oil prices, and much more.

 

Do Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem?

Comparing Mag 7 payout ratios to historical levels

How rising cap ex is squeezing free cash flow

The relationship in price action between SpaceX and Tesla

What does the options market imply for next week’s Apple earnings?

Comparing earnings implied volatility in AAPL vs MSFT

Strategy changes how it calculates the preferred STRC Sharpe ratio

The US Dollar Index breaks out

Where oil prices go from here

Lots of dispersion under the surface of the S&P 500

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek [email protected]