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Expected Q3 Earnings Growth of 27.2% | Forward P/Es: Poor Short-Term, Solid Long-Term Predictor | Vanguard’s 2019 Decade Ahead Forecast vs. Reality | Big Tech Capex vs. Free Cash Flow | SpaceX Options Volatility

Broken Pie Chart

Release Date: 10/20/2026

Expected Q3 Earnings Growth of 27.2% | Forward P/Es: Poor Short-Term, Solid Long-Term Predictor | Vanguard’s 2019 Decade Ahead Forecast vs. Reality | Big Tech Capex vs. Free Cash Flow | SpaceX Options Volatility show art Expected Q3 Earnings Growth of 27.2% | Forward P/Es: Poor Short-Term, Solid Long-Term Predictor | Vanguard’s 2019 Decade Ahead Forecast vs. Reality | Big Tech Capex vs. Free Cash Flow | SpaceX Options Volatility

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner for episode 400 to ask whether markets are up below average this year, with data on the average S&P 500 up year vs. down year since 1950. Then, Citadel Securities breaks down where expected Q3 earnings growth of 27.2% is coming from, led by Micron and Nvidia. Are forward P/E ratios useful? They’re a poor predictor in the short term but a solid one over 10 years, plus a look back at Vanguard’s 2019 10-year return forecasts vs. the S&P 500’s +15.22% decade-to-date annualized return. Plus, big tech capex vs. free cash flow, high-yield and CCC...

info_outline 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.31% | Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record | Earnings Drive Returns as P/E Multiples Shrink | Dotcom Bubble vs. Today | Hidden Volatility in the Magnificent 7 show art 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.31% | Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record | Earnings Drive Returns as P/E Multiples Shrink | Dotcom Bubble vs. Today | Hidden Volatility in the Magnificent 7

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to break down where 2026 equity returns are actually coming from. Exhibit A data shows earnings have powered the S&P 500 this year while P/E multiples have contracted. Are we in a bubble? Comparing forward P/Es of the dotcom-era blue chips to today’s leaders, plus the hidden volatility behind the Magnificent 7. Then, the 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.31% per Charlie Bilello as Eric Balchunas flags bond mutual fund outflows picking up steam. Redfin data shows home sellers now outnumber buyers by a record margin while contract...

info_outline US Dollar Purchasing Power | Yield Curve Recession Signal Failure? | Worst Treasury Returns in 100 Years | Midterm Election Year Sweet Spot for Equities? | Nike $NKE Chart Looks Like a Popped Bubble show art US Dollar Purchasing Power | Yield Curve Recession Signal Failure? | Worst Treasury Returns in 100 Years | Midterm Election Year Sweet Spot for Equities? | Nike $NKE Chart Looks Like a Popped Bubble

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at markets and what history says comes next. Plus, US Dollar loss of purchasing power illustrates the need to be invested. What about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) leading to a recession? Is it too far gone or still a chance? BofA Global Investment Strategy says Treasuries just posted their worst 10-year rolling returns in 100 years. Charles Schwab data shows Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% year-to-date as of October 1, while Utilities and Consumer Discretionary lag. Are we entering the best part of the...

info_outline SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit | S&P 500 Breadth Lowest Since Dot-Com | 59% of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Markets | Is Narrow Leadership a Warning? | Micron Implied Volatility and Earnings show art SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit | S&P 500 Breadth Lowest Since Dot-Com | 59% of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Markets | Is Narrow Leadership a Warning? | Micron Implied Volatility and Earnings

Broken Pie Chart

  Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to dig into a market that looks healthy on the surface but tells a very different story underneath. S&P 500 breadth, measured by the gap between the index and its median stock relative to 52-week highs, just hit its narrowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble, according to a Marlin Capital chart based on Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research data. Meanwhile, as Don Durrett pointed out on Twitter, 59% of S&P 500 Index constituents are already more than 20% below their all-time highs, and 17% are down more than 50%. Is this a...

info_outline Semis & Hyperscalers Rocking | AAII Surveys Bearish | Will Fed Cause Yield Curve Inversion? | MLB Baseball ETFs show art Semis & Hyperscalers Rocking | AAII Surveys Bearish | Will Fed Cause Yield Curve Inversion? | MLB Baseball ETFs

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner with the market pressing new all-time highs, semiconductors and hyperscalers ripping, and the dichotomy of bad soft data but positive hard data. Plus, is the Fed going to cause another yield curve inversion judging by the narrowing of spreads? Later, do we really need MLB baseball team etfs? All this and more this week including a contrarian indicator of bearish readings in the AAII investor surveys.     Warren Pies points out correlations between semis and hyperscalers at all-time lows If semis and hyperscalers get correlated...

info_outline Fed Big Mistake? | AI Companies Regulatory Capture? | Is the Market Getting Cheaper? | Markets and Midterms show art Fed Big Mistake? | AI Companies Regulatory Capture? | Is the Market Getting Cheaper? | Markets and Midterms

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss whether the Fed made a mistake raising interest rates considering the problem with CPI inflation is rising oil prices which is a supply side issue. Plus, the AI companies are sounding alarm bells about extinction level events. Is this a case of “We should be regulated and we’ll help you write the regulations” to edge out new competitors which is known as regulatory capture. Later, looking at markets that have continued to see a re-rating in multiples lower while earnings estimates are rising. All this and more this week....

info_outline Post Labor Day Market Stats | Growth vs Value Ratio at Key Level | Fed Interest Rate Probabilities | Oracle Earnings Options Implied Move | S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Ratio show art Post Labor Day Market Stats | Growth vs Value Ratio at Key Level | Fed Interest Rate Probabilities | Oracle Earnings Options Implied Move | S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 Forward P/E Ratio

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and where forward earnings estimates and multiples sit on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. All that and more this week.     S&P 500 performance the day after Labor Day going...

info_outline September Seasonality in Midterm Years | High Alert Heading into September | Deficits vs Tax Rates | Mega Cap Winners and Losers | Forward P/E Check Dispersion show art September Seasonality in Midterm Years | High Alert Heading into September | Deficits vs Tax Rates | Mega Cap Winners and Losers | Forward P/E Check Dispersion

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward earnings check on Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Costco, and the S&P 500 itself. All that and more this week.     S&P 500 September performance in midterm election years going back...

info_outline Big Oil's Raining Free Cash Flow | Gold Near Getting Flows | Where Did Homebuyers Go? | Midterm Year Seasonality | Nvidia Earnings show art Big Oil's Raining Free Cash Flow | Gold Near Getting Flows | Where Did Homebuyers Go? | Midterm Year Seasonality | Nvidia Earnings

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about Big Oil posting its best free cash flow quarter ever, $70 billion across the top five majors, without the war-driven price spike that powered the last record. Plus, gold pushing back higher as ETF flows return, the Citi global economic surprise index at its highest since 2022, an AI capex boom that lands as an import drag on GDP, midterm year seasonality, and a housing market where buyers have gone missing while prices sit at records. All that and more this week.     The top five international oil majors...

info_outline Mag 7 Valuation Gap Closes | Netscape Redux? | 32 NHL Team ETFs? | VIX Seasonality Setup show art Mag 7 Valuation Gap Closes | Netscape Redux? | 32 NHL Team ETFs? | VIX Seasonality Setup

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about how valuations of the top stocks now have shrunk to those of the overall market, while tech and other Mag7 stocks valuations have come down while earnings expectations are up. Plus, record short positioning in Nasdaq-100 futures, gold fund flows picking back up, VIX seasonality heading into the autumn, and a filing for 32 NHL team ETFs. All that and more this week.     The forward P/E of the largest 10 S&P 500 companies has converged with the other 490. J.P. Morgan data shows the top 10 near 19.8x...

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More Episodes

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner for episode 400 to ask whether markets are up below average this year, with data on the average S&P 500 up year vs. down year since 1950. Then, Citadel Securities breaks down where expected Q3 earnings growth of 27.2% is coming from, led by Micron and Nvidia. Are forward P/E ratios useful? They’re a poor predictor in the short term but a solid one over 10 years, plus a look back at Vanguard’s 2019 10-year return forecasts vs. the S&P 500’s +15.22% decade-to-date annualized return. Plus, big tech capex vs. free cash flow, high-yield and CCC credit spreads, and SpaceX options volatility. All this and more this week.

 

 

Average S&P 500 up year of +17.7% vs. down year of -11.8% since 1950

Citadel: Expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of 27.2%, led by Micron and Nvidia

S&P 500 sector forward P/E ratios vs. their 10-year averages

Forward P/E ratios are a poor predictor of 1-year forward returns

Forward P/E ratios are a solid predictor of 10-year annualized returns

Vanguard 2019 outlook: 10-year median return forecast of 4.9% for a 60/40 portfolio

S&P 500 decade-to-date annualized return of +15.22% vs. Vanguard’s 6.1% estimate

Bloomberg: Revenue, capex, and free cash flow for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta

FRED: ICE BofA high yield and CCC & lower option-adjusted spreads

Bloomberg: High-yield spreads at 3.31% vs. 2008 high of 17.22% and 2021 low of 2.28%

Bloomberg: BCAUOAS spread index at 10.62% vs. its long-term average of 8.91%

SpaceX (SPCX) trades at $147.22 with at-the-money options implying ~104% volatility

SpaceX expected move based on implied volatility through earnings

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Signup for ZEGA’s Economic and Market Outlook Wednesday Oct 21st https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_eRKqLJ-OQuCdAdizLYHq7Q?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=2&utm_content=2&utm_source=hs_email#/registration

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek [email protected]