As Uncertainty Rules, Rate Cuts are Gone
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Release Date: 03/10/2026
Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding. But has it started healing?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding customers, but it hasn't started healing. Simon Brown goes deep on the retailer's 20-week trading update, where group turnover rose 2.7% while core Pick n Pay SA supermarkets went backwards. He unpacks the so-called negative stub — a R14 billion market cap against an R18.8 billion stake in Boxer plus cash — and explains why capital gains tax makes those "free" 1,538 stores a lot less free. He also looks at the Section 189A labour consultation covering 22,000 employees, the base rates on retail turnarounds globally, and why Shoprite's ability to absorb...
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Mr Price and Clicks. End of an Era, or an Entry Point?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Mr Price and Clicks have both been hammered, and on a chart they look like the same trade. They are not. Simon Brown holds both and spends this episode pulling the two businesses apart to work out which one he actually wants to own. Clicks is on its cheapest P/E in a decade but is losing share in the high-margin categories that pay the bills, with Dis-Chem, Checkers Sixty60, SPAR Health and Woolworths all circling. Mr Price is on 12.2 times earnings with a 5.3% dividend yield and a German acquisition the market has already priced as a failure. Also covered: US earnings season running at 47%...
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Finding quality JSE dividends | Alphabet profits booms, stock falls
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Vodacom has cut its dividend payout ratio from 75% to 65%, which pushes one of the JSE's dependable income names down the list. Simon Brown runs the Top 40 and the mid-cap screen to find where quality local yield actually sits, and shows how Growthpoint, Nedbank, Coronation and Standard Bank can be combined into a home-built income portfolio yielding roughly seven and a half to eight percent, growing ahead of inflation. He also unpacks Alphabet's record quarter, where two thirds of the profit was unrealised paper gains and free cash flow turned negative for the first time on record, and asks...
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Finding an edge in prediction markets | Netflix, market hate is an opportunity?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Can you find a real edge in prediction markets? Simon hunts the arbitrage — and calls Netflix cheap. In this week's WorldWideMarkets: • 🎲 Prediction markets: where's the edge, and where's the scam? • 🇧🇷 The Brazil election "two-horse arbitrage" explained • 📈 Betting SA's 2026 inflation print with a Bayesian model • 🎬 Netflix halved — Simon says it's now cheap • 📊 Stocks on the move: Bid Corp, Mr Price, OUTsurance, Vodacom, Absa, Gold Fields CHAPTERS: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 Prediction markets: where's the edge? 4:35 The Brazil election arbitrage 8:05 Betting SA...
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Purple Group goes all-in on AI | US 10-year at 4.63% is a crisis
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
A month after the year's most hyped listing, nearly everyone who bought SpaceX and held is underwater — and with the 180-day lock-up now gone, Simon Brown explains why insider selling is only getting started. He then tours the week's biggest moves: Apple's copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and what it means for hardware and an IPO, Purple Group buying Telescope AI to strengthen EasyEquities, oil climbing back into the 80s as Middle East peace talks stall, De Beers closing its last South African mine, and Sappi languishing at 1998 levels. He closes on a US 10-year yield near 4.6% and the...
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Defence Stocks and the Replacement Trade | Why Lockheed Martin Wins
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Wars burn hardware, and rebuilding it takes years. This week Simon Brown works through the defence sector as a replacement thesis — the US fired roughly half its THAAD interceptor stockpile in twelve days against Iran — and settles on Lockheed Martin as his pick, with RTX as a second choice. He weighs the faster-growing but pricier European names (Leonardo, Thales, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall), runs through the main defence ETF options, and flags the risks: budgets are politics, and forward orders still have to convert. Also covered: a post-IPO look at Bending Spoons, SK Hynix's planned $28bn...
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Europe's Biggest Tech IPO: Bending Spoons
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
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MercadoLibre is Amazon with a bank and it's cheapest in years
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
MercadoLibre is down 40% for the year, and Simon Brown argues the market is mispricing it as a retailer while ignoring the fintech engine — Mercado Pago — that is becoming Latin America's biggest digital bank. Total payment volume now exceeds gross merchandise volume, even as management deliberately halves operating margins to grab market share. This week also marks the death of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan at 100, a look at SpaceX's volatile listing that still sits above its IPO price, South African inflation cooling to 4.5% with petrol relief on the way, the first FOMC meeting with...
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Peace in Our Time | Are We Just Going Back to February?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
A US–Iran cessation of hostilities, due to be signed Friday, has collapsed the oil price, firmed the rand back toward 16.00 and let gold hold key support — and Simon Brown argues markets are heading back to where they sat in late February, just with fewer rate cuts on the table. This episode also unpacks the most hyped IPO in history opening softer than expected, South African inflation surprising lower at 4.5% with chunky petrol and diesel cuts due in July, a no-change FOMC meeting, and a busy stocks-on-the-move list. Topics: US–Iran ceasefire, oil, rand, gold, emerging markets, SA...
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Stocks for your Soccer World Cup
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
The World Cup kicks off Thursday — so which stocks actually win? Simon Brown ran a data-driven hunt and the answer is counter-intuitive: skip the obvious bets. His own scrape of stadium-adjacent hotels found accommodation available everywhere, with 84 of 104 games unsold, so hoteliers have no pricing power and the retail uplift is marginal. The real edge sits with the kit makers — Adidas and Nike both screen cheap against analyst targets — and the betting operators, Sun International and NYSE-listed Super Group. He also looks at JSE newcomer Canal+ and the free-streaming threat from...
info_outline🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 669
📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT
🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing
With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.
Simon’s strategy right now?
🧘 Do nothing.
Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.
🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120
Oil has been incredibly volatile.
📊 Recent moves
- Early January: ~$60
- Monday spike: ~$120
- Tuesday: briefly below $90
- Current level: ~$91
That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.
The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
🚢 Shipping traffic
- Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day
- Last Wednesday: 0 barrels
- Monday: ~20% of normal
Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.
⛽ What This Means for South Africa
Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.
💸 Earlier estimates suggested:
- Petrol: +R5.40
- Diesel: +R10
After oil pulled back slightly:
- Petrol increase may be ~R3
- Diesel ~R5
Still extremely painful for the economy.
📈 Inflation & Interest Rates
Oil shocks ripple through inflation.
📊 Rule of thumb:
Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.
With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:
➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation
For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.
🏦 Rate Cuts Are Off the Table
Upcoming meetings:
- 🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March
- 🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 March
Previously expected: rate cuts.
Now?
❌ Cuts unlikely
Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.
⚔️ The War Question
Markets are asking one thing:
How long does this conflict last?
Current signals:
- Iran says it won’t capitulate
- US and Israel still active
- UAE attacks have slowed
One possible constraint: missile inventories.
Iran’s cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.
At some point, stocks run out.
🛢️ G7 Emergency Oil Plan
The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.
📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels
Possible release:
➡️ 300–400 million barrels
This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.
That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.
📉 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios
Best Case
✔ Conflict ends within weeks
✔ Strategic reserves released
✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s
Worst Case
🔥 War escalates
🔥 Shipping disruptions persist
🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200
At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.
🤖 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto Call
Standard Bank has launched a new structured product.
📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call
Key features:
💰 Return: 14% per year
📅 Term: Up to 5 years
🔁 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive
💵 Currency: Rand
📉 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity
📥 Minimum investment: R25,000
🧠 Index Constituents
The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.
Top holdings include:
- Nvidia
- Palantir
- Snowflake
- AMD
- Broadcom
- SoundHound AI
- Kingsoft Cloud
- BigBear.ai
- DataVault
- Zenitech
Total: 30 companies in the index.
🇿🇦 SA GDP: Small Steps Forward
South Africa released Q4 GDP.
📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%
Full-year growth:
- 2024: 0.5%
- 2025: 1.1%
Not amazing, but improving.
Forecast for 2026:
📈 1.6% – 1.8%
If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.
🎬 Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again…)
The media industry continues consolidating.
Deal overview:
💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery
📦 Price: ~$100 billion
Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.
💵 Result:
- Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee
- Its stock jumped ~15%
🇨🇳 Tencent Joins the Deal
New twist:
Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.
For South African investors:
Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.
Yes… it’s complicated.
🎥 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad Idea
The concerns:
📉 Traditional media is declining
🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content
🏛️ Politics may influence the deal
Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.
Simon’s take:
This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.
🕒 Market Hours Change
The US switched to daylight savings.
New trading times for South Africa:
📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)
✈️ Personal Note
Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew’s 18th birthday.
Time flies.
✔ Key Takeaway
Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.
Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.
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