6-12-24 Managing Risk and Return with Individual Treasury Bonds
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 06/12/2024
6-25-24 Is S&P 6,300 Outside the Realm of Possibility?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Fed speakers are out this week, talking the same game. Lance examines corellation between the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and economic growth, and what posts to X (formerly known as Twitter) are to be called. Who does the Fed depend upon for data? There are many divergences in the data; Nvidia's bad day(s): Stock split and 13% drop is a correction, not a crash. Doing the math to S&P 6,300 and looking at the range of possibilities. We address the common investor's desire for a perfect low-risk, high-reward investment. Lance & Jon discuss the unrealistic expectations and the...
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6-25-24 What to do with Nvidia?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Did the darling of Wall Street take a drubbing? Nvidia headlines were rampant following its huge run and a 10:1 stock split. Now the stock has dropped 13% in three days. Don't panic. When Nvidia was trading at $1,000/share, and small ($50k) investors wanted to make it 1% of their portfolio, they could only buy one share. (In a $50k account, that's a 2% position.) There was no "reduction" in the position with those numbers; the only choice was to sell the share. That's the problem with small accounts and big dollar stocks, which makes risk management an all-or-nothing proposition. Heading into...
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6-24-24 Avoid These Common Trading Mistakes
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market volatility closed out last week, as investors prepare to wrap June and Q2 business. Triple-witching Friday added to the excitement, and markets remain extremely over bought. The Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index has been negatice for 27-mos in a row; always a precessor of Recession. Lance discusses investors' two common mistakes when markets negatively diverge (w charts). A look at Market Cap Weighting vs Equal Weighting in porfolios; is it time for a clean-up? The problem with Economic Data and how it's derived: Sentiment surveys are not hard data points. Separate emotion from...
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6-24-24 Markets Remain Over-bought
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets got extremely over-bought last week, and on Thursday and Friday began to burn off some of the excess. Much of the activity was due to options expirations on Friday. Technology has been driving the S&P, of late. Nvidia was everyone's concern over the weekend after a decent, 3% dell off. Markets are over-bought, and we're due for a correction, or at least some consolidation to bring the moving average up to markets, or prices must correct back to the moving averages. Investor sentiment is high, which is typically the time to be a bit more risk averse. Goldman thinks the S&P will...
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Could Tax Policy Shrink the Economy?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are performing the job of the Fed; is the economy stronger? Rich & Jon look at the "Olive Garden economic indicator: Who's dining out, and who is staying in? How to unravel high restaurant prices 9and everything else, too!) Baby Boomers are still spending. Candid Coffee preview (egistration link below); Investor complacency is troubling. The Genworth settlement = 100% increase in premiums. Financial Dust Bunnies. Nvidia performance cannot continue indefinitely; the data the markets are ignoring. Social Security COLA adjustments to reverse; unrest is whoing up in election results;...
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Debunking Dollarization: Why the Dollar Is Stronger Than Ever
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will markets exhibit the typical summer weakness? Prepping for the election outcomes; correction coming now and later. Preview of housing numbers and initial jobless claims; market breadth is on the decline. The increasing gap between the S&P 500 and equal-weighted indexes. Lance discusses the relative strength of the Dollar vs other currencies. Petro-dollar fears and how you're being sold by Wall Street. Our narrative should be how to make money. The "demise" of the petro-dollar; keeping currencies all relative within a range is important for Trade. The Gold/Dollar dynamic; why the world...
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6-20-24 Will the Fed Cut Rates Sooner?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
National housing numbers and home builders' sentiment have been dropping of late, particularly in new home sales, which have been very weak. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to continue to click up. Rising unemployment could entice the Fed to cut rates sooner. One of the dichotomies we've been watching is market breadth, with the number of stock trading above their 50-DMA declining despite the markets' rise; the number of stocks climbing above their 200-DMA is declining, even though the market is rising. One of the biggest gaps, which hasn't been seen since the financial crisis, is the...
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6-18-24 Is Bullishness on the Rise?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are trading in a holiday-shortened week, thanks to the Juneteenth Holiday Wednesday. 50% of companies are now in stock buy back blackout period. Retail Sales report preview; a function of Consumer sentiment. Five Fed speakers out and about today; markets started weakly, then rallied 1%. Volume and breadth are weakening; markets are very over-bought and extremely deviated from DMA's; when correction comes... Is consumer sentiment on the rise? How best to balance portfolio mix (charts). When will the "Next Big One" come along? Query about going from 90/10 portfolio to 100% equities; you...
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6-18-24 What Makes Correction Pain Worse?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets on Monday opened weakly, then rallied 1% to close ahead. Note, however, that while markets are making these advances, they're doing so on weak volume and narrow breadth, resulting in a market that is very, very over bought in terms of relative strength. The current deviation from the longer-term mean is getting fairly extreme. Typically, with deviations of this magnitude, a correction is sure to follow. Moving averages are like gravity, and the further you deviate from that average (price over time), the more they want to come back to earth. Given the current, extreme deviation,...
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6-17-24 Corrective Action is Inevitable
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have continued to grind along the 20-DMA. Nothing seems to be wrong, and markets are back to extremely over bought conditions. Upside has been limited, with small gains being made in markets that are very deviated from the 20- and 50-DMA. Corrective action is inevitable to relieve some of the over bought conditions.This has been a very narrow rally, with performance only in the top-most tier of stocks vs the rest of the market; there's a very big gap in performance. More and more stocks are not trading above their 50-DMA. Narrow breadth does not mean we're going to have a massive...
info_outlineIt's Fed Day and Inflation Day: The FOMC meeting commences, and inflation in May cooled a bit. What will the Fed's Dot Plot show? Rate cut expectations are down to just two for this year, and likely not occuring until after the election. How will the Fed loosen QT? Markets set another all time high, marginally. The rally-restest-rally pattern continues. Apple was the big driver on Tuesday with the heralding of "Apple Intelligence." We answer viewers' questions about owning Bonds vs Treasuries vs ETF's. The saga of predictions, swimming in oil, and uranium's leap ahead of its reality. Our investing strategy now: What we're buying and selling, and why; how we manage risk.
SEG-1: Fed Day/Inflation Day; Apple Intelligence
SEG-2: Outlook for Owning Bonds
SEG-3: Swimming in Oil & The Saga of Predictions
SEG-4: How We Manage Risk
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E6tkkfvRTQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"It’s Not 2000. But There Are Similarities."
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/its-not-2000-but-there-are-similarities/
"Are Economic Reports Pointing To A Recession?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
"Commodities And The Boom-Bust Cycle"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/commodities-and-the-boom-bust-cycle/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is Now the Time to Buy Apple?" is here:
https://youtu.be/3HXblWzZ5S4
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Our previous show is here: "How the 60/40 Investment Strategy Works for You"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xv5IwzcX8Xc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2187s
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REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee (6/29/24):
https://streamyard.com/watch/TX6irKYnjHnh
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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