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9-19-24 Can Markets Hold on to Breakout?

Release Date: 09/19/2024

9-19-24 What Does the Fed's 50-bps Rate Cut Mean for Your Money?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

The markets were right: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percent on Wednesday, and markets initially climbed, then sold off to end negative for the day. But after pondering overnight, market futures indicated a strong start to Thursday's trading day. If markets rally and hold through Friday, they will be set to hit all time highs, once again. Will we see rotation into other sectors as a by product? The Fed is trying to position rates where they should be, given the current economic conditions. All Labor data now become very important. With lower rates, will there be a rash of...

9-19-24 Can Markets Hold on to Breakout?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets put in a "shooting candle" formation following yesterday's Fed rate cut by 50-bps. Markets sold off to end negatively, slept on the news overnight, and this morning look to start very strong. If markets can rally, breakout, and hold onto that breakout thru Friday, then investors should see markets move on to all time highs again. Bond Yields reversed, but there is still down side risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast:...

9-18-24 Fed Rate Decision 2024: Boom or Bust for Your Investments?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

It's Fed Day: The big question will be answered this afternoon, 'How much the cut?' Huge bets on 50-bp rate cut; will a quarter-point cut disappoint? Meanwhile, Retail Sales continue to weaken, but August numbers were better than expected. There is no apparent data to support a 50-bp rate cut. There is a credit debt wall coming; extreme market optimism is a risk. It's make-or-break time for the S&P 500; NASDAQ not performing as well, and the rest of the market is playing catch-up. Lance notes the AI effect on Utilities and Real Estate, formerly among most-hated sectors. Lance & Danny...

9-18-24 Hated Sectors Are the Most Desirable

The Real Investment Show Podcast

The S&P 500 is on a buy signal, not yet over bought, and flirting with all-time highs. It could set another all-time high, or establish significant resistance if markets fail following today's Fed rate announcement. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy NASDAQ is not performing nearly as well. The rest of the market has been playing catch-up, and the S&P Equal Weight index has become over bought, thanks to rises in utilities and real estate--sectors previously eschewed by investors. Seems everyone woke up with the AI effect, and utilities have had a huge run up since July. Real Estate has...

9-17-24 Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge...Until it Doesn't

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, to be concluded with the latest interest rate announcement. Markets' expectations are for a half-percent cut; could a quarter-percent cut create disappointment on Wall Street? Microsoft announces and increase in its dividend payment (very different from a stock buy back). Kamala Harris' plans to raise taxes on corporations is in fact an crease in taxes on consumers; corporations are tax collectors for the government. Markets' rally in anticipation of Fed day tomorrow. The stock buyback window begins to close today ahead of the next earnings season,...

9-17-24 Markets Prep for Fed Day

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Tomorrow is The Big Day for markets as the Fed makes known its intentions for interest rates. Markets have been rallying nicely in anticipation; yesterday, pushing up to all-time highs and finishing positive. Markets remain in a consolidation range, and tomorrow's Fed decision will determine the markets' direction. Note that today begins the closure of the stock buyback window, removing an element of "lift" from markets. With the next earnings season just two weeks away, that buying power will begin to fade. Meanwhile, a buy signal remains in place with markets at very high levels, so there...

9-16-24 Market Risks We Are Watching

The Real Investment Show Podcast

It's Fed week, and many are predicting a 60% chance the FOMC will drop rates by a half percent; elections are drawing nearer: How will markets behave? (Why the polls are never right) Markets' 4% loss two weeks ago followed by 4% recovery last week; reversal days tend to mark bottoms, but not always. Last weeks' reversal was very bullish, but that doesn't mean we cannot have another correction. One risk is oil prices. XLE is over sold. The three risks we're watching include oil; discussion on the true meaning of inflation. Prices vs rate of change are two different things. The linkage of the...

9-16-24 Oil Prices Belie Economic Weakness

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets saw a 4% decline week before last; last week, markets recovered by 4% in anticipation of what the Fed is going to do this week. Did that big reversal day two weeks ago mark a market bottom? Not necessarily, because there are plenty of examples where such has occurred at market peaks. There is no doubt the recent reversal was bullish, and there is no real reason to be overly bearish at this point. However, risks remain, and one of them is in Oil Prices, which have continued to weaken. Despite a bounce following a sharp sell off, the trend in oil prices remains weak. That does not...

9-13-24 How to Create a Retirement Blueprint

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Ratliff, but first a review of the markets: It's all about the Fed, and the grate debate is about rate. How much will they cut, and how many times? Watch for elevated volatility heading into the election; a divided-congress yields the best environment for markets. Who will have the best policies for the economy? What will your retirement look like? Commonalities vs net worth differences among peers; the need to set your own parameters. The importance of having paid-off debt. Components of a Retirement Blueprint: Needs, Wants, Wishes. "The New Retirement Mentality," by Mitch Anthony; dealing...

9-12-24 Did Inflation Change the Fed's Outlook?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

As we went to air this morning, Space-X astronauts are "space-walking," testing new spacesuits; is Elon Musk the real-live equivalent of Tony Stark? CPI prints cooler--but core CPI was hotter than expected. MEanwhile the NFIB Survey (showing conservative bent) shows increases in confidence wiped out as Harris capmaigns; policy matters. Markets Big Reversal on Nvidia commentary about AI chip demand; the news boosted markets to a 2.5% gain. CPI is a hot mess: Inflation is different for everyone; the important question is how CPI will affect markets. Lance and Michael discuss how CPI is...

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Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of34bE1oBm4&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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