2-24-26 Stop Chasing 2026 Returns
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Most investors don’t realize how quickly a good plan can get derailed by one bad question: “What will your investments return this year?” Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn break down why asking an advisor for short-term performance predictions is usually the wrong framework—especially when comparisons start with “Can you beat Treasuries this year?” Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:50 - E-books & Economic Data 2:53 - Will AI Lead to...
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2-24-26 100-DMA Test: 5% Pullback Risk Rising | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
On this day in 1836, the defenders of the Alamo were entering the second day of a siege that would ultimately define Texas history. Surrounded, outnumbered, and under pressure, they faced a critical reality: hold the line—or face the consequences. Markets aren’t all that different right now. After failing at the 20- and 50-day moving averages, the S&P is once again leaning on a key level of support—the 100-day. That’s your line in the sand. Momentum is weakening, internal breadth is deteriorating, and while the surface looks calm, the underlying currents are shifting. The question...
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2-23-26 Is China Really Dumping U.S. Treasuries?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is China really “dumping” U.S. Treasury bonds—or is that headline missing key context? Lance Roberts examines what Treasury International Capital (TIC) data does (and doesn’t) show, why China’s reported holdings can shift for reasons that have nothing to do with panic selling, and how custody chains and financial centers can complicate the narrative. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:52 - What to Do w Tariffs Struck Down by SCOTUS 5:35 - GDP Weaker than Expected, except... 12:59 -...
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2-23-26 Market Rotation Warning - Breadth at 50-Year Extreme | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets bounced Friday, recovering to close slightly above the 20-day moving average, but the story remains internal rotation—not a clean, broad-based trend. Energy and mega-caps carried the tape into the close, while this morning the leadership is shifting again, with Healthcare acting better (Eli Lilly notably higher) and much of the rest of the market looking flat. February is doing what it often does—acting like one of the weaker seasonal months—and the S&P 500 is up only about 1.2% year-to-date. Under the surface, sector bifurcation is pronounced: Energy, Industrials, and Basic...
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2-20-26 Mega Roth Questions & Senior Deductions
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Some 401(k) plans let you put in extra after-tax money and move it into a Roth so it can grow tax-free—but you have to know what your plan allows. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty share 10 questions to ask your 401(k) provider so you don’t miss it. Rich & Jonathan also explain a new bill that would make the $6,000 senior deduction permanent. It’s not the same as “no tax on Social Security” for everyone—and the Social Security tax rules still depend on income thresholds that haven’t kept up with inflation. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard...
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2-19-26 Dalio at Davos: Calm Markets, Hidden Currents
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Ray Dalio’s Davos comments aren’t a “next-week collapse” call—they’re a long-cycle warning: rising debt supply can eventually force higher yields and tough policy trade-offs. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, but sector/factor dispersion and low correlations show a fierce rotation under the hood. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the calm index ≠ calm market—watch dispersion and correlations for the next regime shift. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent...
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2-19-26 Dow Streak Signals Pullback | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pushed higher Wednesday morning and ran straight into a key technical “traffic jam” as the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converged near the same level. Late-day selling pulled prices back toward the 50-DMA, and with futures slightly lower this morning, the big question is whether buyers step back in—or whether we start to see a more routine digestion of gains. The bigger tell right now may be the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow has notched nine consecutive months of gains, a streak that’s historically rare over long market history. When runs like this extend, it...
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2-18-26 Q&A Wednesday: Markets, Money, and Your Questions
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It’s Q&A Wednesday—your questions drive the show. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down what’s moving markets right now, key economic and Fed signals to watch this week, and the practical portfolio decisions that matter most (risk, allocations, income, taxes, and retirement timing). Drop your question in the live chatroom and we’ll tackle as many as we can. Topics we often cover: market volatility & trend levels, rates/inflation, sector rotation, retirement income, tax strategy, ETFs vs. individual bonds, and avoiding emotional decision-making. Hosted by RIA...
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2-18-26 100-DMA Bounce: Range-Bound Markets & Energy Risk | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets tested the 100-day moving average (100-DMA) and buyers stepped in—exactly where many systematic and algorithmic strategies tend to respond. Futures are pointing higher this morning, but that doesn’t automatically mean the selloff is finished. Momentum remains weak and the market is still on a sell signal, which often sets up a choppy, range-bound environment without a clear catalyst. We also discuss why “chasing winners” can get dangerous late in an extended run—highlighted by Walmart’s sharp drop after a strong advance. In commodities, crude oil is trying to stabilize, but...
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2-17-26 Bank, Brokerage, or Corporate Trustee? (It's a Matter of Trust)
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Choosing a corporate trustee is one of the most important decisions in estate planning—especially if you’re naming a bank, brokerage trust department, or independent trust company to manage assets and carry out your wishes after you’re gone. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down how to compare corporate trustees beyond just “lowest fees,” including fiduciary standards, investment flexibility, service model, administrative capabilities, distribution discipline, technology/reporting, continuity, and how they handle family dynamics. We also cover the key differences between revocable...
info_outlineIt's 2024 Election-eve: Hedge funds are long on a presumed outcome; watch for a pick up in volatility. The Fed meets on the day after the election; there are still about 100 S&P Companies left to report. Reference Lance's weekend article on buy backs, Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Apple spent $100-B on stock buy backs, when they could have purchased Intel for $99-B and produced their own chips. But, no. investors should do nothing on this day before the election; any move you make could be wrong. RIP Quincy Jones & Peanuts the Squirrel; Earnings Season Beat Rates are still elevated 80% (w charts). Roughly 10% of earnings are manufactured, and these are boosted by buy backs. Jerome Powell commentary this week will depend upon election outcome; he doesn't know yet. Lance' discussion on interest rates and debt overhang: Remember the Fed's job is to protect the banks. Lending money into existence is how economy works. Interest Rates are like a virus. Expectations are for a .25-bp rate cut. The IRS is raising the 401k max contribution ceiling by $500 to $23,500 for 2025. How "later" shows up tomorrow. Saving is a discipline.
SEG-1: Markets on Standstill
SEG-2: Earnings Season Beat Rates Still Elevated
SEG-3: Interest Rates Are Like a Virus
SEG-4: 401k Ceilings & the Discipline of Saving Money
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isHueBB3EwY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"10 Smart Money Moves to Make Right Now"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-smart-money-moves-to-make-right-now/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Don't Do Anything Today" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ureIqdQOgyo&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Ten Money Smart Things To Do Before Year's End"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GA2ZIzl8ws&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1900s
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