1-19-26 The Metric that Matters - The Michael Green Interview
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 01/19/2026
1-19-26 The Metric that Matters - The Michael Green Interview
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What really matters for markets in 2026—and why are most forecasts focused on the wrong metrics? Lance Roberts visits with Simplify Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Green, CFA, to examine the structural changes inside today’s markets that are reshaping price discovery, volatility, and risk. From the rise of passive investing and ETF dominance to the growing disconnect between fundamentals and flows, the mechanics of how markets trade have changed dramatically. We explore why small-cap and mid-cap stocks remain the most economically sensitive indicators, how ETFs...
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1-16-26 Social Security Reform: Expansion or Cuts?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Congress is debating major changes to Social Security—and the outcome could mean benefit expansion or future cuts. With trust fund shortfalls projected by 2033, lawmakers have introduced a wave of bills aimed at increasing benefits, changing cost-of-living calculations, and redefining how and when Americans claim Social Security. Richard Rosso breaks down the key Social Security reform proposals currently circulating in Congress, what they would change, why most face steep political hurdles, and what these debates mean for retirement planning in the years ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Social...
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1-15-26 Silver’s Surge: Bubble or Fundamentals?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Can we classify Silver as a microbubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz take a disciplined, valuation-driven look at silver through the lens of post-2020 micro-bubble cycles. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Oil Prices Slide, CPI/PPI Moderate 8:15 - Index Performance Comparisons 14:33 - PPI/CPI Increase rate Cut Expectations 17:19 - The Risks of Reflation 20:48 - GDP Predictions? 23:08 - The Saga of the Silver Bubble 26:18 - Meme Stocks & SPAC's 29:57 - What's the Narrative in Silver? 31:41 - Silver, Gold, & Commodity Supply-Demand Imbalances 34:03 - Unlike God, Silver is a Critical...
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1-15-26 Market Rotation Is Broadening — But Risks Remain | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are quietly broadening beneath the surface. While mega-cap stocks continue to dominate headlines, money is rotating into small caps, mid caps, value stocks, and even international equities. The S&P Equal Weight Index just set a new all-time high—even as the S&P 500 lagged—highlighting improving market breadth. Small caps and mid caps have closed part of their long-standing performance gap with large caps, but meaningful differences remain. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 are still trailing the S&P 500, and small caps remain highly sensitive to economic slowdowns....
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1-14-26 Q & A Wednesday - Your Money & Market Questions Answered
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take your real-time questions directly from our YouTube live chat window, and break down today’s most important money, market, investing, and retirement topics. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Big Banks' Earnings & Trading Revenue 4:00 - Markets Decline off All-time Highs 9:05 - Fun with Charts - Understanding Market Dynamics 16:17 - Contributing to Roth in Retirement? 20:27 - SimpleVisor Alerts 21:10 - Determining Percentage of Assets to Own vs Sell 26:15 - Thoughts on Trump Plan to use Retirement Money for Home Purchases 30:01 - You never Own Your House 33:48 -...
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1-14-26 Markets Compress Near All-time Highs | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pulled back from all-time highs, not in a bearish way, but through tightening consolidation. Price is compressing between a rising support line and a clearly defined ceiling, creating a narrowing trading range that historically resolves with a decisive move. The key question now is direction. A downside break could bring a retracement toward the 100-day moving average, while an upside resolution could push prices toward the 7,100 area. Over the next two to four weeks, a downside resolution would not be surprising—but any move will still require a catalyst. Market breadth continues to...
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1-13-26 The Economic Reflation Narrative Is Back
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The economic reflation narrative is back—but is it durable or just another market storyline driven by optimism and liquidity? Lance Roberts explains what investors mean by “economic reflation,” why markets are once again pricing in stronger growth, and which data points are reinforcing the bullish case. We examine the role of monetary policy shifts, fiscal spending, labor market dynamics, and commodity trends that are supporting expectations for improving earnings and profitability. Just as importantly, we address the risks to the reflation narrative. Sticky inflation, slowing global...
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1-13-26 Market Turbulence - Earnings Test Ahead | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
With earnings season underway and markets stretched, conditions suggest rising market turbulence as price discovery accelerates. JPMorgan Chase kicked things off with a technical earnings miss after an extraordinary multi-year rally, highlighting how stretched both individual stocks and the broader market have become. While markets remain on a buy signal and continue to hover near all-time highs, deviations from key moving averages and increasingly overbought conditions suggest a near-term pullback would be healthy—and not unexpected. Financial heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and...
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1-12-26 Investor Lessons From 2025 for 2026
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets opened 2026 with early gains, improving breadth, and a rotation toward value—but mixed fundamentals and elevated expectations remain beneath the surface. Lance Roberts reviews key investor lessons from 2025 that matter most as we head into 2026. We review what worked, what failed, and why market narratives once again misled investors. Topics include value versus growth, volatility versus risk, the role of cash, earnings-driven returns, portfolio rebalancing, and why discipline—not prediction—remains the foundation of long-term investing. We also examine the technical backdrop for...
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1-12-26 Volatility Risk Rising | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets closed at new highs but are flashing short-term overbought signals. Unexpected weekend headlines around a potential investigation tied to the Fed introduced a volatility catalyst markets were not pricing in—especially at elevated levels. While the issue itself is unlikely to become a long-term concern, surprises are often what trigger near-term selling pressure. With earnings season approaching, volatility risk is more likely to come from corporate results than headlines. We discuss why managing risk, rebalancing portfolios, and preparing for routine pullbacks matter when markets are...
info_outlineWhat really matters for markets in 2026—and why are most forecasts focused on the wrong metrics?
Lance Roberts visits with Simplify Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Green, CFA, to examine the structural changes inside today’s markets that are reshaping price discovery, volatility, and risk. From the rise of passive investing and ETF dominance to the growing disconnect between fundamentals and flows, the mechanics of how markets trade have changed dramatically.
We explore why small-cap and mid-cap stocks remain the most economically sensitive indicators, how ETFs can pull sellers higher during inflows—and why that dynamic reverses dangerously during outflows. We also examine declining market elasticity, the limitations of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, and why traditional analysis is increasingly ignored.
Beyond markets, we connect these shifts to investor behavior, financial nihilism, generational risk-taking, and the unintended consequences of policy intervention. From the “Bank of Dad” to systemic fund imbalances, this discussion reframes what a useful market outlook should actually focus on heading into 2026.
This is not a prediction.
It is a framework for understanding risk, structure, and consequences.
0:00 INTRO
2:02 - Outlook for 2026 - What's the important metric?
6:22- Small-cap, Mid-cap stocks are most economically sensitive
8:32 - The importance of Understanding What You Own
11:09 - The Issue of ETF's - Dragging the Sellers higher
13:13 - The Theory of Passive Investing
15:16 - The Composition of Trading has Changed
17:52 - How to correct an over valued stock
19:25 - The Problem with Passive Investing - what happens when investors start selling indexed ETF's (the Bigger the Company, the LESS Elastic the Demand Response)
23:55 - The Efficient market Hypothesis
25:32 - What Makes for a Useful Market Forecast - The market Can't Crash??
27:14 - Systemic Issues within the Market
31:14 - What Would Michael Green Do?
33:18 - The Death of Analysis & Fund Imbalances
37:13 - The Next Generation of Investors and Risk-taking
39:17 - The Poverty Line & Young Investors
43:34 - When the Government Gets Involved
46:04 - Making Choices - Luxuries vs Necessities
49:18 - Financial Education, Financial Stability, & Financial Choices: Financial Nihilism
53:16 - The Bank of Dad & Soft Society
1:00:58 - Actions Have Consequences
1:05:30 - How to Reach Michael Green
1:06:33 - The Problem with The Problem
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Simplify Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Green, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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You can read Michael Green's blog, "Yes...I Give a Fig," here:
https://www.yesigiveafig.com/
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Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQSiR6fxLGg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1
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Watch our previous show, "Social Security Reform: Expansion or Cuts?" here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQSiR6fxLGg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Is Broadening — But Risks Remain," is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS2mSWm16qg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/
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