9-14-26 Is This Time Different for Stocks?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 09/14/2026
10-12-26 Depopulation: What Happens When the Population Shrinks? The Bill King Interview
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What happens to the economy when population growth slows—or goes into reverse? Lance Roberts & Bill King explore the demographic forces reshaping the United States and the world, from falling birth rates and China’s One Child Policy to immigration, aging populations, Social Security, housing, inflation, and the future of work. We examine what depopulation really means for economic growth and retirement sustainability, why demographic shifts could alter housing demand and labor markets, and how immigration policy may become increasingly important as countries compete for workers and...
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10-9-26 How to Keep Your Estate Plan From Tearing Your Family Apart
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Estate planning is about more than deciding who gets what. Poor planning, unequal circumstances among children, prior financial assistance, caregiver responsibilities, and mismatched inherited assets can create family conflicts that last for years. Richard Rosso and Jonathan McCarty discuss how to have the important conversations before an estate plan is finalized, including treating siblings differently when their circumstances are different, caregiver contracts for children who live nearby, inheritance stipulations, beneficiary alignment, and why “equal” isn't always the same as...
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10-8-26 Is the Term Premium Misleading the Fed?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the Federal Reserve relying on a metric that cannot be reliably measured? Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan recently discussed the role of the Treasury term premium in determining whether rising long-term interest rates are doing some of the Fed’s work for it. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine what the term premium actually represents, why different models disagree, and whether policymakers risk putting too much emphasis on an uncertain estimate when setting interest rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:50 - Earnings Season & Optimistic Guidance 2:10 - Bond...
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10-8-26 S&P 500 Breakout Fails: What's Next? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P 500's breakout to all-time highs is losing momentum. With stocks retreating into their recent trading range, is this a failed breakout or a healthy pullback before a stronger fourth-quarter rally? Lance Roberts examines the market's weakening breakout, key support levels at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and why a short-term correction could help relieve overbought conditions. With earnings season approaching, corporate guidance could provide the next catalyst for stocks. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields, today's bond auction, and continued weakness in small-cap and...
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10-7-26 Q&A Wednesday: Can the Rally Keep Going?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are pushing to record highs, but investors have plenty to question. Can the rally keep going as Treasury yields remain elevated, the labor market cools, AI enthusiasm drives Technology stocks, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence oil and inflation? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions from the YouTube live chat and examine the economic, geopolitical, and investing stories shaping markets right now. Bring your questions and join the conversation as we separate market signals from headlines and discuss what investors should be watching next. 0:00 -...
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10-7-26 Can the S&P 500 Breakout Hold? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P 500 is on the cusp of breaking out to new all-time highs after the NASDAQ has already pushed into record territory. With futures pointing higher and momentum turning positive, the question now is whether the S&P 500 can break above resistance and, more importantly, hold those gains. The setup has several potential tailwinds. Earnings season is approaching, oil prices have retreated sharply from recent highs, and interest rates appear extremely extended and vulnerable to a retracement. Lower oil prices and easing Treasury yields could reduce inflation concerns and provide...
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10-6-26 Sequence of Returns Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
You can earn a solid average return in retirement and still run out of money. The reason may be sequence of returns risk — the danger of suffering significant market losses early in retirement, while simultaneously withdrawing money from your portfolio. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn explain why the order of investment returns matters so much once you transition from saving to spending, and examine the math behind the 4% withdrawal rule, why early retirement losses can be so difficult to recover from, how taxes can increase the effective draw on a portfolio, and why starting market valuations...
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10-6-26 S&P 500 Breakout: Can New Highs Hold? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P 500 is on the cusp of breaking out to new all-time highs after the NASDAQ has already pushed into record territory. With futures pointing higher and momentum turning positive, the question now is whether the S&P 500 can break above resistance and, more importantly, hold those gains. The setup has several potential tailwinds. Earnings season is approaching, oil prices have retreated sharply from recent highs, and interest rates appear extremely extended and vulnerable to a retracement. Lower oil prices and easing Treasury yields could reduce inflation concerns and provide...
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10-5-26 Q4 Market Outlook: Will Strong Markets Finish Strong?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Can a strong year for stocks carry its momentum through the fourth quarter? History provides an interesting backdrop for the Q4 market outlook. Lance Roberts examines the forces that could shape markets through year-end, including rising earnings estimates, corporate buybacks, investor sentiment, liquidity, interest rates, and the continuing dominance of Technology. We’ll also look at the other side of the setup: weak market breadth, elevated Treasury yields, narrow leadership, and the risk that strength in the major indexes may be masking weakness beneath the surface. 0:00 -...
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10-5-26 Market Breadth Sends a Warning | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P 500 remains resilient, but market breadth is telling a very different story. The percentage of stocks on bullish buy signals and those trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages has fallen sharply, even as the major index remains well above key technical support. Volatility remains subdued, momentum has cooled, and the S&P 500’s previous deviation from its 200-DMA has narrowed without a major market decline. That leaves stocks caught between deteriorating participation beneath the surface and an index that continues to trade sideways. The next catalyst could be Q3...
info_outlineStock prices and corporate earnings are breaking trends that have held for roughly 90 years. Does artificial intelligence represent a fundamental change in the economy and markets, or are investors once again being tempted by the four most dangerous words in investing: “this time is different”?
Lance Roberts examines whether AI has truly changed the earnings equation, what today's valuations suggest about future returns, and why investors don't necessarily have to choose between being bullish and bearish.
0:00 INTRO
1:01 - FOMC Week; AI: To Pause or Not to Pause?
4:35 - Markets Still Stuck
9:47 - A look at Bond Flow Dynamics
13:49 - Why is Everyone Buying Longer Term Bonds?
14:31 - The TINA Trade
17:50 - The Primary Function of Bonds in a Portfolio: Safety
24:02 - Investment Psychology: Narrative and Greed
27:24 - The Gap Between Estimates and Reality
28:18 - The Truth About Compounding
31:29 - The Permanent Impairment of Capital
33:42 - Currency Debasement & Inflation
35:22 - How to Offset Risk of Inflation: Bonds vs Equities
37:25 - A portfolio is an Engine
38:41 - A Crisis Without a Calendar
41:36 - We're at the Tail End of a Secular Bull Market
43:54 - Investing in Lead & Beans
44:50 - Why We Prefer Optimism
Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's Before the Bell report, "Don’t Overreact to Today’s Tech Selloff,"
https://youtu.be/mE2qTZl5Pf8
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Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel:
https://youtube.com/live/GNSmdq5nH2o
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Watch our previous show, "Can the FIRE Movement Really Work?"
https://www.youtube.com/live/HummvRArByg?si=EZBAImkZqNESj9uh
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Weak Buyback & Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals For Bonds"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/weak-buyback-strong-auctions-bullish-signals-for-bonds/
"This Time Is Different? Earnings and Price Break 90-Year Trends"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-this-time-different-earnings-and-price-break-90-year-trends/
"Portfolio Risk Management: Winning The Long Game (Chapter 5)
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-risk-management-winning-the-long-game-chapter-5/
"US Debt Trap: A Crisis Without A Calendar"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/us-debt-trap-a-crisis-without-a-calendar/
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