Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues. Timestamps: 0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to Hanania to appear on SSG 10:23: Who is Hanania? 15:22: Why a cancel attempt on Hanania 19:09: Should Hanania be canceled from the forecasting community? 23:24: Peter Wildeford's criticism 29:03: Aaron Bergman's warning on ideological policing 32:22:...
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How a Government Shutdown Will Likely Be Averted
Star Spangled Gamblers
Intro: Pratik Chougule Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in political betting markets and argues for recruiting experts to participate in prediction markets 1:45: Pratik promotes the Manifest Conference 5:46: Zubby on the possibility of a government shutdown 30:02: Mick Bransfield on David...
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Will Trump Show Up to Any Debate This Year?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstances in which Trump will attend a Republican debate Timestamps 0:12: Pratik introduces the interview with Steve Friess 1:37: Pratik introduces segment with Zubby Badger on whether Trump will attend a debate 2:59: Political betting...
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Will a Fragmented Republican Field Save Trump?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets. Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around an alternative. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the...
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The Bull Case for Ron DeSantis
Star Spangled Gamblers
Longtime PredictIt trader Ben Freeman argues that the markets are overly pessimistic about Ron DeSantis's odds of winning the Republican nomination and makes the bull case for buying at current prices. 1:23: DeSantis's comments about betting markets on John Stossel's show 6:24: Ben Freeman introduces himself 8:16: Ben's experience as a Trump White House intern 12:13: Why DeSantis prices have dropped 14:24: Why DeSantis remains the strongest candidate after Trump 24:19: Trump's odds 36:31: DeSantis's campaign troubles
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PredictIt's Big Win at the Fifth Circuit
Star Spangled Gamblers
Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the Fifth Circuit's decision to grant PredictIt a preliminary injunction and what it means for traders as well as the broader political betting community. Bransfield and Chougule also speculate on why PredictIt still isn't rolling out new markets. 4:53: Summary of Fifth Circuit ruling 14:51: CFTC attorneys and their legal strategy against PredictIt 27:19: PredictIt hiring for a DCM 31:21: New markets at PredictIt? 34:20: SSG website down
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CFTC as "Election Cop"; Side bets on DeSantis county wins; Kalshi's role in "killing" PredictIt/Polymarket; mailbag on Kalshi's debt ceiling market
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I (3:46): Adrian Smith responds to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's concerns that election markets could turn the CFTC into an "election cop." Part II (27:01): Iabvek and Pratik side bet on whether Ron DeSantis will even win one county in the Republican primaries Part III (36:37): Mick Bransfield discusses whether Kalshi "killed" PredictIt and/or Polymarket and how the FOIA process works at the CFTC Part IV (40:53): Mailbag on Kalshi's recent debt ceiling market
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How Bad Will It Get for Ron DeSantis?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Gaeten Dugas, Iabvek, and Pratik Chougule debate and place side bets on the question of when Ron DeSantis drop out of the race. In part II, Pratik addresses a mailbag question on the question of whether prediction markets and political gamblers have failed to disrupt the political discourse. Timestamps: 5:25: PredictIt's victory at the Fifth Circuit 7:12: DeSantis's political future 41:47: Mailbag on prediction market traders who can't explain politics
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Does Political Betting Threaten Democracy? Lessons from the UK
Star Spangled Gamblers
The CFTC's review of Kalshi's election contracts has shown that policymakers in America have deep concerns about risk political betting poses to democracy. UK-based political gambler and election compliance specialist Adrian Smith joins the show to discuss what lessons can be drawn from Britain's longstanding, liberal regulations on political betting. In part 2, Atlantic Sentinel Nick Ottens returns to the show to discuss why Hungary won't leave the European Union. Timestamps: 0:00: Pratik introduces the Adrian Smith interview 0:42: Pratik discusses the CFTC's review of Kalshi's election...
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Another CFTC Review of Kalshi's Election Markets
Star Spangled Gamblers
Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into Kalshi's latest attempt at the CFTC to offer election markets. StarSpangledGamblers.com Twitter: @ssgamblers
info_outlineArgentina's upcoming presidential elections are looking like a volatile and uncertain contest between a number of colorful candidates. Among others: an incumbent with a track record of racist comments overseeing 100%+ inflation, a Harvard Business School grad, and an anarcho-capitalist tantra instructor.
Latin America based financial analyst Ian Bezek returns to the show to assess the odds on Smarkets and how you should trade in the run-up to primaries in August and the general election in October.
In part 2, Casino.org reporter Steve Bittenbender and Pratik Chougule continue to analyze the CFTC's response to PredictIt, including its subtle suggestion that PredictIt users should sue Aristotle.