Will India Strike Pakistan?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict 8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war? 9:34: Pakistan's strategy 11:47: Spike in Polymarket market 12:13: Nuclear weapons 12:57: Terrorist attack in India 18:10: Indian military options 19:50:...
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Virginia Attorney General Election: A Bright Spot for Republicans
Star Spangled Gamblers
Curt Mills (@curtmills), Executive Director of The American Conservative, returns to discuss Virginia politics and why Republican Jason Miyares is likely to win the Attorney General race. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 1:04: Intro ends 3:05: Interview with Mills begins 3:37: Mills's connection to Virginia 5:16: Virginia politics 7:11: Thomas Jefferson High School 10:23: William and Mary University 12:45: Changes in Virginia 17:21: Upcoming elections 20:38: Governor's race 23:00: Governor election margin of victory 25:11: Earle-Sears 26:08: Spanberger 27:00: Trans issue 29:30: Attorney...
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Chile Presidential Election
Star Spangled Gamblers
Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:35: Venezuela invasion 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: Interview begins 4:38: Polymarket odds 4:55: Chilean history 5:45: Pinochet 8:06: Chilean democracy 9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates 10:09: 2021 election 11:19: Boric's failures 12:20: Regional waves 13:43: First round 14:51: Left-wing primary 15:47: Kast 19:47: Kast's electability 20:16: Kast's professional bio 21:47: Kast's political skill 22:20: Jara 23:43: Latin American left 27:17: Jara's view on mining 29:57:...
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Kalshi Sports Contracts: Implications for Political Betting
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09:...
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Prediction Market Regulation in the Trump Era
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21:...
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Cuomo's Comeback
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor. Timestamps 0:17: Jacky Pritchard 0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens 2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi 3:17: Intro ends 5:17: Interview begins 6:00: How Jacky became interested in political betting 8:31: Jacky's legal background 9:52: How Cuomo made a comeback 22:46: Cuomo's scandals 26:10: Cuomo's legal problems 27:01: #metoo movement 30:34: Eric Adams 33:46: Cuomo as frontrunner 34:32: DoJ investigation against Cuomo 36:10: Zohran Mamdani...
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Growing Prediction Markets: Lessons from the Gaming Community
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote Manifest 2025. Timestamps 1:26: Number of Hearthstone players 2:50: Manifest 2025 3:24: Intro ends 5:24: Interview with Chee begins 5:43: Chee's titles 6:06: Chee's background 7:26: Twitch 8:45: Gaming 14:32: Gaming and gambling 17:31: Chee's introduction to forecasting 20:53: How Chee built a Twitch...
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The Trader Who Guessed Every Swing State Correctly—Twice
Star Spangled Gamblers
In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death...
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The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory
Star Spangled Gamblers
Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs 13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman...
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The MAGA Civil War over H-1B Visas
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28: Indians 17:07: Chinese H-1Bs 18:00: Why Silicon Valley wants H-1Bs 20:57: Indian Twitter 20:22: Elon Musk 23:13: Steve Bannon 25:39: Trump on H-1B 26:40: Republican factions 29:11: Trump's racial views 29:40: Polymarket markets 29:48: India travel ban 31:29: Will Trump eliminate H-1B? 32:50: Will Trump...
info_outlineAkhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan.
Timestamps
0:00: Chougule introduces episode
0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup
2:25: Intro ends
4:25: Interview begins
4:46: Pillalamarri's background
5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets
6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan
7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict
8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war?
9:34: Pakistan's strategy
11:47: Spike in Polymarket market
12:13: Nuclear weapons
12:57: Terrorist attack in India
18:10: Indian military options
19:50: Indian hardliners
20:51: Pakistan's hand
25:18: China
26:38: Saudi Arabia
27:50: Munir
28:14: Pakistani military
29:06: India's point of view
30:01: Hardline Indian policy
32:50: Timing of an Indian strike
35:21: Market rules on "strike"
36:33: No Indian ground forces
37:06: Indian strike in 2027
Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.
Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers
Bet on the India-Pakistan conflict at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by?tid=1764041734299
The next DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup is on Tuesday, Nov 25 from 6-9pm at Rocklands Barbeque and Grilling Company.
This month's speaker is John Bennett. John was the co-organizer of the recent Manifest x DC conference that took place earlier this month and will be leading a discussion about what worked well, what didn’t, and what we could do to scale next time.
A BBQ buffet and fountain drinks will be provided free of charge to this month's attendees. Alcoholic beverages will be available for purchase.
Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/VoLn8aAh4pabxrxczwiz
Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander’s Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists.
Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true
Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups
Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork
Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv