Chile Presidential Election
Star Spangled Gamblers
Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:35: Venezuela invasion 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: Interview begins 4:38: Polymarket odds 4:55: Chilean history 5:45: Pinochet 8:06: Chilean democracy 9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates 10:09: 2021 election 11:19: Boric's failures 12:20: Regional waves 13:43: First round 14:51: Left-wing primary 15:47: Kast 19:47: Kast's electability 20:16: Kast's professional bio 21:47: Kast's political skill 22:20: Jara 23:43: Latin American left 27:17: Jara's view on mining 29:57:...
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Kalshi Sports Contracts: Implications for Political Betting
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09:...
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Prediction Market Regulation in the Trump Era
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21:...
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Cuomo's Comeback
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor. Timestamps 0:17: Jacky Pritchard 0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens 2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi 3:17: Intro ends 5:17: Interview begins 6:00: How Jacky became interested in political betting 8:31: Jacky's legal background 9:52: How Cuomo made a comeback 22:46: Cuomo's scandals 26:10: Cuomo's legal problems 27:01: #metoo movement 30:34: Eric Adams 33:46: Cuomo as frontrunner 34:32: DoJ investigation against Cuomo 36:10: Zohran Mamdani...
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Growing Prediction Markets: Lessons from the Gaming Community
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote Manifest 2025. Timestamps 1:26: Number of Hearthstone players 2:50: Manifest 2025 3:24: Intro ends 5:24: Interview with Chee begins 5:43: Chee's titles 6:06: Chee's background 7:26: Twitch 8:45: Gaming 14:32: Gaming and gambling 17:31: Chee's introduction to forecasting 20:53: How Chee built a Twitch...
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The Trader Who Guessed Every Swing State Correctly—Twice
Star Spangled Gamblers
In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death...
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The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory
Star Spangled Gamblers
Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs 13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman...
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The MAGA Civil War over H-1B Visas
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28: Indians 17:07: Chinese H-1Bs 18:00: Why Silicon Valley wants H-1Bs 20:57: Indian Twitter 20:22: Elon Musk 23:13: Steve Bannon 25:39: Trump on H-1B 26:40: Republican factions 29:11: Trump's racial views 29:40: Polymarket markets 29:48: India travel ban 31:29: Will Trump eliminate H-1B? 32:50: Will Trump...
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Kash Patel's Confirmation, Vivek Ramaswamy's Gaffe
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe Timestamps 0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro 0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation 2:03: Hegseth's confirmation 3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy segment 5:41: Intro ends 7:42: Patel segment begins 12:19: Patel scandals 15:52: Dr. Cruse's prediction 16:28: Trump's support of Patel 19:42: Alternatives to Patel 22:29: Why Patel different from Hegseth 23:14: Patel segment ends 23:28: Ramaswamy segment begins 24:50: Whiplash...
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Problems with Nate Silver's Model
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here:...
info_outlineLatin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election.
Timestamps
0:00: Intro begins
0:35: Venezuela invasion
1:35: Intro ends
3:36: Interview begins
4:38: Polymarket odds
4:55: Chilean history
5:45: Pinochet
8:06: Chilean democracy
9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates
10:09: 2021 election
11:19: Boric's failures
12:20: Regional waves
13:43: First round
14:51: Left-wing primary
15:47: Kast
19:47: Kast's electability
20:16: Kast's professional bio
21:47: Kast's political skill
22:20: Jara
23:43: Latin American left
27:17: Jara's view on mining
29:57: Comparisons to other Latin American leftists
31:48: Matthei
32:39: Parisi
33:18: Kaiser
34:28: Kaiser polling
35:00: Latin American libertarians and immigration
36:02: First round winner
38:47: Polling
39:45: Bezek's recommended combo play
40:01: Overall winner
42:32: Why Polymarket underpricing Kast
43:41: Potential surprises
44:04: Financial markets
44:45: Tariffs
48:44: Venezuela invasion
50:15: Equity plays
51:35: ETFs
52:01: Banco de Chile
52:21: Chilean peso
52:34: How to follow election
53:16: How to interpret polls
54:31: Implications for other Latin American candidates
54:57: Follow Bezek
55:46: Interview ends
56:00: Upcoming meetups
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Bet on Latin American politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Forecasting Meetup Network
Join the community of prediction market traders, rationalists, effective altruists, sports bettors, and other forecasters coming together to improve humanity’s ability to predict the future.
Upcoming meetups:
- DC: Thu, Sep 18th at 6pm. Details and RSVP here.
- Boston: Mon, Sep 22nd at 6pm. Details and RSVP here.
https://forecastingmeetupnetwork.kit.com/eb6374e5e8