France Stabilizes Around Prime Minister Lecornu
Star Spangled Gamblers
Theodore Cazals (@trueslazac) explains why French president Emmanuel Macron is unpopular, and why the French political system has entered a period of stability anyway. William Kedjanyi (@KeejayOV3), Paul Krishnamurty (@paulmotty), and Pip Moss (@PipsFunFacts) analyze how British Prime Minister Keir Starmer could hold on to power. Timestamps 0:10: Chougule introduces France segment 1:26: Chougule introduces UK segment 2:28: Intro ends 4:29: France interview begins 4:36: Cazals background 5:32: Cazals connection to prediction markets 6:50: Why Cazals lost money in prediction markets...
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How Long Will Starmer Remain Prime Minister?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: UK-based political bettors William Kedjanyi, Paul Krishnamurty, and Pip Moss debate how long Starmer can last as prime minister. Part 2: Chougule announces Polymarket sponsorship of DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces UK segment 0:39: Polymarket markets on UK politics 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: UK segment begins 6:02: What has gone wrong for Starmer? 11:10: Starmer's communication problem 11:31: Perceptions of Starmer as a liar 11:41: Starmer is hated 17:40: Free speech 24:36: Market odds on Starmer's departure 25:23: Policy challenges...
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Why India and Pakistan Won't Use Nuclear Weapons
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri (@AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons. Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states and the District of Columbia. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces segment with Pillalamarri 1:07: Chougule introduces Glidden interview with Miller 1:46: Parallels between lotteries and prediction markets 2:47: Intro ends 4:48: Pillalamarri segment begins 5:12: Kylasa...
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Will India Strike Pakistan?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict 8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war? 9:34: Pakistan's strategy 11:47: Spike in Polymarket market 12:13: Nuclear weapons 12:57: Terrorist attack in India 18:10: Indian military options 19:50:...
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Virginia Attorney General Election: A Bright Spot for Republicans
Star Spangled Gamblers
Curt Mills (@curtmills), Executive Director of The American Conservative, returns to discuss Virginia politics and why Republican Jason Miyares is likely to win the Attorney General race. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 1:04: Intro ends 3:05: Interview with Mills begins 3:37: Mills's connection to Virginia 5:16: Virginia politics 7:11: Thomas Jefferson High School 10:23: William and Mary University 12:45: Changes in Virginia 17:21: Upcoming elections 20:38: Governor's race 23:00: Governor election margin of victory 25:11: Earle-Sears 26:08: Spanberger 27:00: Trans issue 29:30: Attorney...
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Chile Presidential Election
Star Spangled Gamblers
Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:35: Venezuela invasion 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: Interview begins 4:38: Polymarket odds 4:55: Chilean history 5:45: Pinochet 8:06: Chilean democracy 9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates 10:09: 2021 election 11:19: Boric's failures 12:20: Regional waves 13:43: First round 14:51: Left-wing primary 15:47: Kast 19:47: Kast's electability 20:16: Kast's professional bio 21:47: Kast's political skill 22:20: Jara 23:43: Latin American left 27:17: Jara's view on mining 29:57:...
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Kalshi Sports Contracts: Implications for Political Betting
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09:...
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Prediction Market Regulation in the Trump Era
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21:...
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Cuomo's Comeback
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor. Timestamps 0:17: Jacky Pritchard 0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens 2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi 3:17: Intro ends 5:17: Interview begins 6:00: How Jacky became interested in political betting 8:31: Jacky's legal background 9:52: How Cuomo made a comeback 22:46: Cuomo's scandals 26:10: Cuomo's legal problems 27:01: #metoo movement 30:34: Eric Adams 33:46: Cuomo as frontrunner 34:32: DoJ investigation against Cuomo 36:10: Zohran Mamdani...
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Growing Prediction Markets: Lessons from the Gaming Community
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote Manifest 2025. Timestamps 1:26: Number of Hearthstone players 2:50: Manifest 2025 3:24: Intro ends 5:24: Interview with Chee begins 5:43: Chee's titles 6:06: Chee's background 7:26: Twitch 8:45: Gaming 14:32: Gaming and gambling 17:31: Chee's introduction to forecasting 20:53: How Chee built a Twitch...
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Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health
Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge
Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts
Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets
Timestamps
5:08: Interview with Lucas begins
6:39: Biden's cognitive decline
8:49: Biden's physical health
10:20: Biden's aneurysms
13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign
15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury
18:45: How to trade on Biden's health on Polymarket
20:46: Segment on Ramaswamy begins
21:46: Ben Freeman on fading the online candidate
23:22: Segment on CFTC's Kalshi decision begins
24:21: Commissioner Mersinger's dissent
25:54: State laws on political betting
27:40: Why the CFTC is not main the adversary of political betting
28:14: Legality of the Iowa Electronic Markets
29:47: Kalshi's tried to find a shortcut
30:50: Excerpt of Chougule's speech on black markets
32:22: Segment with Nathan Young begins
32:37: How religion made Young interested in prediction markets
33:10: Forecasters were ahead of the curve on COVID
34:02: Similarities between the rationality and religious communities
38:05: Religious attitudes toward gambling in the UK
40:56: America's religious opposition to political betting
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers.