Kalshi v. CFTC: Update and Legal Issues
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting 8:06: District court case 10:37: Gaming 15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling 18:17: DC Circuit appeal 18:30: DC Circuit court judges 30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts 33:07:...
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Reporting on Election 2024 from the County Level
Star Spangled Gamblers
Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate race Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
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How to Organize a Forecasting Meetup
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03: Interview with Glidden begins 8:29: Working with a partner 9:42: Sensitivity to rejection 12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites 14:25: Big visions 15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision 18:28: Scratch your own itch 19:52: Prediction market newsletters 21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle 22:32: How to begin 23:03:...
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Building the Forecasting Community: Lessons from the Sports Betting World
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC...
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District Judge Rules Against CFTC
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield 1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle 9:34: Bransfield segment begins 11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation 20:33: Definition of a contest 21:47: Market manipulation 27:02: Cobb's concerns 27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming 29:34: Importance of public comments to...
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Who Will Win the Trump-Harris Debate?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate. Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election. Timestamps 3:49: Interview begins 4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt 6:54: 50Pence introduction 8:26: Title Belt bet 15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump 18:32: Counterparty risk 21:39: Debate rules 30:59: Harris's performance 57:13: Trump's weaknesses 1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets 1:08:03:...
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Kalshi's Case Against the CFTC
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment 0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment 2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada 3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida 6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins 6:29: Jones Day 9:13: Joshua Sterling 10:50: Yaakov Roth 11:14: Amanda Rice 11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument 14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument 14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets...
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Crypto Bros at the Republican National Convention
Star Spangled Gamblers
Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup. Timestamps 3:58: Interview begins 5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC 18:05: Why the RNC matters 19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency 27:47: Media treatment of Harris 31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race 37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election SUPPORT US: Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest...
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How to Comment on the CFTC's Event Contracts Proposal
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal. Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC Timestamps 1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC 2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube 3:43: What to write to the CFTC 5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal 7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle 12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal 13:44: Political betting moving offshore 15:17: Delaying the rule 17:23: Need...
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Obstacles to Rescheduling Marijuana
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024 Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contracts Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana rescheduling segment 2:11: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation 3:24: CFTC rulemaking on event contracts 6:46: Interview with Whitley begins 8:14: Referencing Polymarket odds in political analysis 11:12: What does rescheduling marijuana mean? 13:30: Why Biden rescheduled marijuana...
info_outlineEvery year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year.
Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter
5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos
6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process
8:33: Best Market
9:27: Room temperature superconductor
10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market
11:23: Best Trade
11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market
12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1
12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei
13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song
13:12: Domer debt limit profits
13:17: Worst Trade
14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count
14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president
15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement
15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy
17:21: Best Shitposter
19:06: Domer's shitposting
19:56: RelayThief's shitposting
20:44: Rookie of the Year
21:12: Naman Mehndiratta
22:39: Manifold Markets
23:20: Betting platforms
23:48: TheWinner
25:29: Trader of the Year
25:46: ANoland
26:07: Gaeten Dugas
27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger)
28:33: Doug Campbell
29:05: Worst Pump
31:04: Kalshi election contracts
31:15: Hamas control of Gaza
32:00: Trump third indictment
32:44: Semiconductor yes holders
33:40: RFK Democratic nominee
33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year
34:22: Best News Source
34:41: Politico Punchbowl
35:00: PredictIt comments
35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI
35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips
37:29: CSP Discord
38:36: Service to Political Gambling
38:36: PredictIt
39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck
39:56: Government Shutdown
40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump"
41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles
42:19: submarine debris
43:04: Trump indictment on March 31
43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages
44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute
44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack
45:59: Postscript
46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination
47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords
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