Will India Strike Pakistan?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict 8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war? 9:34: Pakistan's strategy 11:47: Spike in Polymarket market 12:13: Nuclear weapons 12:57: Terrorist attack in India 18:10: Indian military options 19:50:...
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Virginia Attorney General Election: A Bright Spot for Republicans
Star Spangled Gamblers
Curt Mills (@curtmills), Executive Director of The American Conservative, returns to discuss Virginia politics and why Republican Jason Miyares is likely to win the Attorney General race. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 1:04: Intro ends 3:05: Interview with Mills begins 3:37: Mills's connection to Virginia 5:16: Virginia politics 7:11: Thomas Jefferson High School 10:23: William and Mary University 12:45: Changes in Virginia 17:21: Upcoming elections 20:38: Governor's race 23:00: Governor election margin of victory 25:11: Earle-Sears 26:08: Spanberger 27:00: Trans issue 29:30: Attorney...
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Chile Presidential Election
Star Spangled Gamblers
Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:35: Venezuela invasion 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: Interview begins 4:38: Polymarket odds 4:55: Chilean history 5:45: Pinochet 8:06: Chilean democracy 9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates 10:09: 2021 election 11:19: Boric's failures 12:20: Regional waves 13:43: First round 14:51: Left-wing primary 15:47: Kast 19:47: Kast's electability 20:16: Kast's professional bio 21:47: Kast's political skill 22:20: Jara 23:43: Latin American left 27:17: Jara's view on mining 29:57:...
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Kalshi Sports Contracts: Implications for Political Betting
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09:...
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Prediction Market Regulation in the Trump Era
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21:...
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Cuomo's Comeback
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor. Timestamps 0:17: Jacky Pritchard 0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens 2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi 3:17: Intro ends 5:17: Interview begins 6:00: How Jacky became interested in political betting 8:31: Jacky's legal background 9:52: How Cuomo made a comeback 22:46: Cuomo's scandals 26:10: Cuomo's legal problems 27:01: #metoo movement 30:34: Eric Adams 33:46: Cuomo as frontrunner 34:32: DoJ investigation against Cuomo 36:10: Zohran Mamdani...
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Growing Prediction Markets: Lessons from the Gaming Community
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote Manifest 2025. Timestamps 1:26: Number of Hearthstone players 2:50: Manifest 2025 3:24: Intro ends 5:24: Interview with Chee begins 5:43: Chee's titles 6:06: Chee's background 7:26: Twitch 8:45: Gaming 14:32: Gaming and gambling 17:31: Chee's introduction to forecasting 20:53: How Chee built a Twitch...
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The Trader Who Guessed Every Swing State Correctly—Twice
Star Spangled Gamblers
In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death...
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The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory
Star Spangled Gamblers
Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs 13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman...
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The MAGA Civil War over H-1B Visas
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28: Indians 17:07: Chinese H-1Bs 18:00: Why Silicon Valley wants H-1Bs 20:57: Indian Twitter 20:22: Elon Musk 23:13: Steve Bannon 25:39: Trump on H-1B 26:40: Republican factions 29:11: Trump's racial views 29:40: Polymarket markets 29:48: India travel ban 31:29: Will Trump eliminate H-1B? 32:50: Will Trump...
info_outlineEvery year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year.
Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter
5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos
6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process
8:33: Best Market
9:27: Room temperature superconductor
10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market
11:23: Best Trade
11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market
12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1
12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei
13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song
13:12: Domer debt limit profits
13:17: Worst Trade
14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count
14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president
15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement
15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy
17:21: Best Shitposter
19:06: Domer's shitposting
19:56: RelayThief's shitposting
20:44: Rookie of the Year
21:12: Naman Mehndiratta
22:39: Manifold Markets
23:20: Betting platforms
23:48: TheWinner
25:29: Trader of the Year
25:46: ANoland
26:07: Gaeten Dugas
27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger)
28:33: Doug Campbell
29:05: Worst Pump
31:04: Kalshi election contracts
31:15: Hamas control of Gaza
32:00: Trump third indictment
32:44: Semiconductor yes holders
33:40: RFK Democratic nominee
33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year
34:22: Best News Source
34:41: Politico Punchbowl
35:00: PredictIt comments
35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI
35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips
37:29: CSP Discord
38:36: Service to Political Gambling
38:36: PredictIt
39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck
39:56: Government Shutdown
40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump"
41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles
42:19: submarine debris
43:04: Trump indictment on March 31
43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages
44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute
44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack
45:59: Postscript
46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination
47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords
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