Rishi Sunak's Political Future
Star Spangled Gamblers
London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held 27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election 31:04: Impact of U.S. elections on UK election timing 34:55: Will Sunak be out before next elections? 39:36: Will Sunak quit? 40:21: Could Sunak be pushed out by his party? Trade on Sunak and the next UK elections at Polymarket.com: Follow SSG on...
info_outline
Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Star Spangled Gamblers
Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos 6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process 8:33: Best Market 9:27: Room temperature superconductor 10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market 11:23: Best Trade 11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market 12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy...
info_outline
When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hemma's impressions of political gambling 9:58: Can political gambling reach beyond its target demographics? 11:12: Taylor Swift as a political actor 16:18: Polymarket markets on Taylor Swift 16:59: Is the Swift-Kelce relationship real? 19:04:...
info_outline
Stalemate in Ukraine
Star Spangled Gamblers
Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview about his time in Russia 1:11: Doug's talk on war markets at Manifest 1:32: Manifest conference 2024 4:33: Interview begins 5:17: High-level update on the war 13:23: Ukrainian intelligence before the war 14:37: U.S. intelligence estimates...
info_outline
The Emerging Forecasting Community
Star Spangled Gamblers
Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, returns to assess the Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn's odds of becoming Trump's VP pick. In Part 3, Nathan Young returns to the show to advise on how to short AI hype in betting markets. 0:00: Pratik introduces the segment with Saul Munn 1:24:...
info_outline
The Women Who Might Be Trump's VP
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee 3:44: Pratik introduces Bransfield segment 4:37: Trump interview on his VP choice with Maria Bartiromo 8:28: Darling interview begins 10:00: Why Noem is the front-runner to be Trump's VP 11:49: Noem's history with Trump 15:15: Noem's alleged affair with Corey...
info_outline
How Bad Is Trump's Health?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor 4:17: Interview begins 5:46: Trump's coronary artery disease 6:32: Trump's physique 10:12: Trump's psychology 11:05: Note from Trump's doctor 13:38: Why hasn't Trump had a serious heart condition? 15:06: Trump's genetics 17:46: Is weight protective in old age? 21:00: Trump's cognitive decline 25:29:...
info_outline
Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second in Iowa
Star Spangled Gamblers
While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain. Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos. 0:00: Pratik introduces the Iowa caucuses segment 1:38: Pratik explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos for Excellence in Political Gambling 4:15: SSG members' only private briefing on Taiwan elections 7:36: Segment on Iowa caucuses begins...
info_outline
AI Can't Beat the Math Nerds (Yet)
Star Spangled Gamblers
Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 4:00: Interview with Nathan begins. Nathan explains his full-time work in the forecasting industry 6:18: AI and effective altruism 13:25: What exactly is AI and what are its capabilities? 30:49: Polymarket's AI Math Olympiad Prize market Follow us on Twitter...
info_outline
Why Joe Biden's Health Concerns Are Overstated
Star Spangled Gamblers
Four Part Episode Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and prediction markets Timestamps 5:08: Interview with Lucas begins 6:39: Biden's cognitive decline 8:49: Biden's physical health 10:20: Biden's aneurysms 13:18: Biden's capacity to run a presidential campaign 15:19: Biden's risk of vaccine injury 18:45:...
info_outlineEvery year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year.
Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot.
Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter
5:56: Vice introduces the Golden Modelos
6:53: Pratik explains the Golden Modelos process
8:33: Best Market
9:27: Room temperature superconductor
10:15: Will 2023 be the hottest year market
11:23: Best Trade
11:27: Bonding the Bitcoin ETF market
12:33: Domer buying Ramaswamy at 500-1
12:49: Ian Bezek recommending buying Javier Milei
13:05: Gaeten Dugas buying Taylor Swift to be number one song
13:12: Domer debt limit profits
13:17: Worst Trade
14:19: Mr. Beast subscriber count
14:44: MagaVacuum side betting that DeSantis won't run for president
15:05: Polymarket user losing $100k on Trump reinstatement
15:21: Abe Kurland side bets on Ramaswamy
17:21: Best Shitposter
19:06: Domer's shitposting
19:56: RelayThief's shitposting
20:44: Rookie of the Year
21:12: Naman Mehndiratta
22:39: Manifold Markets
23:20: Betting platforms
23:48: TheWinner
25:29: Trader of the Year
25:46: ANoland
26:07: Gaeten Dugas
27:59: Jonathan Zubkoff (ZubbyBadger)
28:33: Doug Campbell
29:05: Worst Pump
31:04: Kalshi election contracts
31:15: Hamas control of Gaza
32:00: Trump third indictment
32:44: Semiconductor yes holders
33:40: RFK Democratic nominee
33:46: AI to win Time Person of the Year
34:22: Best News Source
34:41: Politico Punchbowl
35:00: PredictIt comments
35:28: The Information's coverage of OpenAI
35:50: RacetotheWH by Logan Phillips
37:29: CSP Discord
38:36: Service to Political Gambling
38:36: PredictIt
39:50: Biggest Rules Cuck
39:56: Government Shutdown
40:33: Lower case "trump" versus upper case "Trump"
41:23: "widespread flooding" in Los Angeles
42:19: submarine debris
43:04: Trump indictment on March 31
43:48: U.S. rescue of Hamas hostages
44:19: Biggest Rules Dispute
44:50: Did Israel have advanced knowledge of Hamas attack
45:59: Postscript
46:17: Abe Kurland's response to Worst Bet nomination
47:53: CSP vs. CatClan Discords
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market at polymarket.com
Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers