Kash Patel's Confirmation, Vivek Ramaswamy's Gaffe
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe Timestamps 0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro 0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation 2:03: Hegseth's confirmation 3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy segment 5:41: Intro ends 7:42: Patel segment begins 12:19: Patel scandals 15:52: Dr. Cruse's prediction 16:28: Trump's support of Patel 19:42: Alternatives to Patel 22:29: Why Patel different from Hegseth 23:14: Patel segment ends 23:28: Ramaswamy segment begins 24:50: Whiplash...
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Problems with Nate Silver's Model
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here:...
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The Bear Case on Pete Hegseth's Confirmation Odds
Star Spangled Gamblers
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood...
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Trump's Appointees
Star Spangled Gamblers
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments. Timestamps 0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments 1:18: Call to support SSG 2:16: Golden Modelos 2:58: Intro ends 4:59: Trump segment begins 7:12: Trump's strategy 7:35: 4-D Chess? 25:45: Sarah Palin 33:02: Golden Modelos Worst Trade 39:03: Golden Modelos Best Fight Bet on Trump administration appointments at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by...
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The Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Star Spangled Gamblers
Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) and Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) celebrate (belatedly) the winners of the 2023 Golden Modelos for the best and worst of political gambling. Timestamps 2:04: Appreciating the political betting community 2:42: Golden Modelos 2024 3:20: Intro ends 5:19: Episode begins 5:28: What are the Golden Modelos? 8:36: Rookie of the Year 10:42: Trader of the Year 16:44: Gaeten's best bets in 2023 27:55: Best Market 38:55: Best News Source 41:54: Future of political gambling community Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's...
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Tucker Carlson After Fox News
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure. Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discuss the merits of CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's opposition to election event contracts. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Tucker Carlson segment 2:02: Behnam's announcement on event contracts rulemaking 11:36: Tucker Carlson segment begins 11:48: Fred Norris recaps bet with Zoltar 19:30: Fox...
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Kalshi v. CFTC: Update and Legal Issues
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting 8:06: District court case 10:37: Gaming 15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling 18:17: DC Circuit appeal 18:30: DC Circuit court judges 30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts 33:07:...
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Reporting on Election 2024 from the County Level
Star Spangled Gamblers
Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate race Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
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How to Organize a Forecasting Meetup
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03: Interview with Glidden begins 8:29: Working with a partner 9:42: Sensitivity to rejection 12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites 14:25: Big visions 15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision 18:28: Scratch your own itch 19:52: Prediction market newsletters 21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle 22:32: How to begin 23:03:...
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Building the Forecasting Community: Lessons from the Sports Betting World
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC...
info_outlineThe CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations.
Timestamps
0:00: Introduction
6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins
8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue
10:14: What is rulemaking?
11:24: Behnam's statement
11:48: Concerns about CFTC staff time on election contracts
14:25: Conflict of interest accusations against Kristin Johnson
17:34: Senator Tommy Tuberville's involvement
20:02: Goldsmith-Romero's views
25:13: Mersinger's dissent
27:38: Pham's dissent
31:10: Discord at the CFTC
32:01: Questions about CFTC enforcement
35:41: CFTC's power and resources
37:58: Behnam's political ambition
41:06: Pratik's critique of Mersinger's dissent
45:12: Pratik's impressions from attending CFTC meeting in person
Trade on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com
Attend Manifest, a festival celebrating predictions, markets, and mechanisms, hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9 at Lighthaven Campus, Berkeley, CA. Tickets are available at https://www.manifest.is/#tickets. Use the discount code SSG10 to get 10% of the ticket price.