Virginia Attorney General Election: A Bright Spot for Republicans
Star Spangled Gamblers
Curt Mills (@curtmills), Executive Director of The American Conservative, returns to discuss Virginia politics and why Republican Jason Miyares is likely to win the Attorney General race. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 1:04: Intro ends 3:05: Interview with Mills begins 3:37: Mills's connection to Virginia 5:16: Virginia politics 7:11: Thomas Jefferson High School 10:23: William and Mary University 12:45: Changes in Virginia 17:21: Upcoming elections 20:38: Governor's race 23:00: Governor election margin of victory 25:11: Earle-Sears 26:08: Spanberger 27:00: Trans issue 29:30: Attorney...
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Chile Presidential Election
Star Spangled Gamblers
Latin America expert Ian Bezek returns for a deep dive into Chile's presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:35: Venezuela invasion 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: Interview begins 4:38: Polymarket odds 4:55: Chilean history 5:45: Pinochet 8:06: Chilean democracy 9:19: Ideologies of Chilean candidates 10:09: 2021 election 11:19: Boric's failures 12:20: Regional waves 13:43: First round 14:51: Left-wing primary 15:47: Kast 19:47: Kast's electability 20:16: Kast's professional bio 21:47: Kast's political skill 22:20: Jara 23:43: Latin American left 27:17: Jara's view on mining 29:57:...
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Kalshi Sports Contracts: Implications for Political Betting
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09:...
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Prediction Market Regulation in the Trump Era
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21:...
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Cuomo's Comeback
Star Spangled Gamblers
Jacky Pritchard, political bettor and former NY state lawyer, explains how Andrew Cuomo emerged as the frontrunning for New York City mayor. Timestamps 0:17: Jacky Pritchard 0:55: Pratik's impressions from Queens 2:44: Follow @iabvek and @politicalkiwi 3:17: Intro ends 5:17: Interview begins 6:00: How Jacky became interested in political betting 8:31: Jacky's legal background 9:52: How Cuomo made a comeback 22:46: Cuomo's scandals 26:10: Cuomo's legal problems 27:01: #metoo movement 30:34: Eric Adams 33:46: Cuomo as frontrunner 34:32: DoJ investigation against Cuomo 36:10: Zohran Mamdani...
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Growing Prediction Markets: Lessons from the Gaming Community
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David Chee (@Hs_SirSalty) is the head organizer of Manifest. Before joining Manifold, he was a professional gamer, earning a number 1 ranking in the world at Hearthstone. David and Pratik (@pjchougule) discuss lessons from the gaming community on how to grow prediction markets. They also promote Manifest 2025. Timestamps 1:26: Number of Hearthstone players 2:50: Manifest 2025 3:24: Intro ends 5:24: Interview with Chee begins 5:43: Chee's titles 6:06: Chee's background 7:26: Twitch 8:45: Gaming 14:32: Gaming and gambling 17:31: Chee's introduction to forecasting 20:53: How Chee built a Twitch...
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The Trader Who Guessed Every Swing State Correctly—Twice
Star Spangled Gamblers
In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death...
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The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory
Star Spangled Gamblers
Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs 13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman...
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The MAGA Civil War over H-1B Visas
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28: Indians 17:07: Chinese H-1Bs 18:00: Why Silicon Valley wants H-1Bs 20:57: Indian Twitter 20:22: Elon Musk 23:13: Steve Bannon 25:39: Trump on H-1B 26:40: Republican factions 29:11: Trump's racial views 29:40: Polymarket markets 29:48: India travel ban 31:29: Will Trump eliminate H-1B? 32:50: Will Trump...
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Kash Patel's Confirmation, Vivek Ramaswamy's Gaffe
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe Timestamps 0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro 0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation 2:03: Hegseth's confirmation 3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy segment 5:41: Intro ends 7:42: Patel segment begins 12:19: Patel scandals 15:52: Dr. Cruse's prediction 16:28: Trump's support of Patel 19:42: Alternatives to Patel 22:29: Why Patel different from Hegseth 23:14: Patel segment ends 23:28: Ramaswamy segment begins 24:50: Whiplash...
info_outlinePart I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections.
Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets.
Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington.
Timestamps
0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections
2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds
3:17: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation
5:55: Segment on UK elections begins
6:12: Anthony's background
8:17: Keir Starmer's background
10:16: Starmer's odds of becoming Prime Minister
11:01: How many seats Conservatives and Labour will win
22:04: Why Sunak and the Conservatives are unlikely to make a comeback
28:37: Why Sunak called an early election
30:54: Labour seat totals
34:03: Right-wing bias in the markets?
36:59: Discussion of class politics
39:27: Segment with Chan begins
39:46: VP odds on Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy
40:48: "Juice" in sportsbooks
41:46: Regulation segment begins
42:56: Incentives in the current CFTC rulemaking
45:00: Need for a counter-lobby on event contracts
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