Building the Forecasting Community: Lessons from the Sports Betting World
Star Spangled Gamblers
David Glidden (@dglid) draws lessons from the sports betting world for building the forecasting community. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:09: Saul Munn 1:26: David Glidden 1:52: Washington DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 6:54: Interview with Glidden begins 13:32: Importance of building forecasting community 14:39: Effective altruism 22:02: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 24:49: Sports betting 40:53: Repeatable lines in prediction markets Show Notes September 26 DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup RSVP: https://partiful.com/e/zpObY6EmiQEkgpcJB6Aw DC...
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District Judge Rules Against CFTC
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule summarizes the latest developments in the legal battle between Kalshi and the CFTC on election betting. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's arguments in front of DC federal district court Judge Jia Cobb. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces segment with Bransfield 1:43: Update on latest in Kalshi-CFTC legal battle 9:34: Bransfield segment begins 11:18: CFTC counsel's poor presentation 20:33: Definition of a contest 21:47: Market manipulation 27:02: Cobb's concerns 27:29: CFTC's arguments about gaming 29:34: Importance of public comments to...
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Who Will Win the Trump-Harris Debate?
Star Spangled Gamblers
Political gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate. Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election. Timestamps 3:49: Interview begins 4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt 6:54: 50Pence introduction 8:26: Title Belt bet 15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump 18:32: Counterparty risk 21:39: Debate rules 30:59: Harris's performance 57:13: Trump's weaknesses 1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets 1:08:03:...
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Kalshi's Case Against the CFTC
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield analyze Kalshi's case against the CFTC in federal court Part II: Jared Whitley discusses political trends among Mormons and other high-achieving minority groups Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Kalshi segment 0:51: Pratik introduces Whitley segment 2:12: Mormon vote in Arizona and Nevada 3:30: Cuban-American vote in Florida 6:23: Segment on Kalshi begins 6:29: Jones Day 9:13: Joshua Sterling 10:50: Yaakov Roth 11:14: Amanda Rice 11:39: Kalshi's gaming argument 14:05: Kalshi's public interest argument 14:45: Lack of expertise on prediction markets...
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Crypto Bros at the Republican National Convention
Star Spangled Gamblers
Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup. Timestamps 3:58: Interview begins 5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC 18:05: Why the RNC matters 19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency 27:47: Media treatment of Harris 31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race 37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election SUPPORT US: Patreon: FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL: Twitter: VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest...
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How to Comment on the CFTC's Event Contracts Proposal
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal. Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC Timestamps 1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC 2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube 3:43: What to write to the CFTC 5:38: The CFTC's goal with its event contracts proposal 7:39: What kind of comments will move the needle 12:36: Questions about enforcement in the proposal 13:44: Political betting moving offshore 15:17: Delaying the rule 17:23: Need...
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Obstacles to Rescheduling Marijuana
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024 Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contracts Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana rescheduling segment 2:11: Pratik introduces segment on event contract regulation 3:24: CFTC rulemaking on event contracts 6:46: Interview with Whitley begins 8:14: Referencing Polymarket odds in political analysis 11:12: What does rescheduling marijuana mean? 13:30: Why Biden rescheduled marijuana...
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UK Elections: The Nigel Farage Factor
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats. Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets Timestamps 0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi 1:53: Pratik introduces segment with Pickles 5:19: Segment with Kedjanyi begins 6:27: Reform Party's launch 11:28: Farage's odds of election 15:02: Farage's impact in the next government 19:38: First past the post 25:03: The Labour Party's ideology 25:46: How Farage...
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Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contracts Part III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) provides advice on how to follow the UK elections and maintain an edge in these markets Part IV: Saul Munn (@saulmunn) explains the importance of capital in building the forecasting community Timestamps 0:11: Pratik introduces segment on J.D. Vance...
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Labour Is Headed for a Landslide Victory
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets. Part III: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discusses why opponents of election betting have the upper hand in Washington. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on UK elections 2:01: Pratik introduces segment with Alex Chan on VP odds 3:17:...
info_outlineKeendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup.
Timestamps
3:58: Interview begins
5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC
18:05: Why the RNC matters
19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency
27:47: Media treatment of Harris
31:54: How to bet on the Trump-Kamala race
37:22: Polymarket's achievements in the 2024 election
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Bet on the 2024 presidential election at Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, at polymarket.com.