The Model that Forecasted Trump's Victory
Star Spangled Gamblers
Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs 13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman...
info_outline
The MAGA Civil War over H-1B Visas
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rule3O3 returns to discuss how Trump will resolve the debate on the right over H-1B visas. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:59: Modi-Trump meeting 2:00: Intro ends 4:00: Episode begins 5:13: Why the H1-B debate erupted 5:43: Sriram Krishnan 9:39: Laura Loomer 14:05: Right-wing debate 16:28: Indians 17:07: Chinese H-1Bs 18:00: Why Silicon Valley wants H-1Bs 20:57: Indian Twitter 20:22: Elon Musk 23:13: Steve Bannon 25:39: Trump on H-1B 26:40: Republican factions 29:11: Trump's racial views 29:40: Polymarket markets 29:48: India travel ban 31:29: Will Trump eliminate H-1B? 32:50: Will Trump...
info_outline
Kash Patel's Confirmation, Vivek Ramaswamy's Gaffe
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) makes the bear case on Kash Patel's confirmation odds Part 2: Rule3O3 (@Rule3O3) analyzes Vivek Ramaswamy's H1B gaffe Timestamps 0:00: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) intro 0:46: Pratik's updated odds on Patel's confirmation 2:03: Hegseth's confirmation 3:01: Pratik introduces Ramaswamy segment 5:41: Intro ends 7:42: Patel segment begins 12:19: Patel scandals 15:52: Dr. Cruse's prediction 16:28: Trump's support of Patel 19:42: Alternatives to Patel 22:29: Why Patel different from Hegseth 23:14: Patel segment ends 23:28: Ramaswamy segment begins 24:50: Whiplash...
info_outline
Problems with Nate Silver's Model
Star Spangled Gamblers
Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here:...
info_outline
The Bear Case on Pete Hegseth's Confirmation Odds
Star Spangled Gamblers
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood...
info_outline
Trump's Appointees
Star Spangled Gamblers
Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) returns to discuss the strategy behind Trump's nominations and administration appointments. Timestamps 0:08: Pratik introduces segment on Trump appointments 1:18: Call to support SSG 2:16: Golden Modelos 2:58: Intro ends 4:59: Trump segment begins 7:12: Trump's strategy 7:35: 4-D Chess? 25:45: Sarah Palin 33:02: Golden Modelos Worst Trade 39:03: Golden Modelos Best Fight Bet on Trump administration appointments at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by...
info_outline
The Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
Star Spangled Gamblers
Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) and Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) celebrate (belatedly) the winners of the 2023 Golden Modelos for the best and worst of political gambling. Timestamps 2:04: Appreciating the political betting community 2:42: Golden Modelos 2024 3:20: Intro ends 5:19: Episode begins 5:28: What are the Golden Modelos? 8:36: Rookie of the Year 10:42: Trader of the Year 16:44: Gaeten's best bets in 2023 27:55: Best Market 38:55: Best News Source 41:54: Future of political gambling community Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's...
info_outline
Tucker Carlson After Fox News
Star Spangled Gamblers
Part 1: Fred Norris (@PIsFredNorris) declares victory in his side bet with Zoltar (@zoltarssg) on how ratings at Fox News would fare following Tucker Carlson's departure. Part 2: Coalition for Political Forecasting Research Director Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) discuss the merits of CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's opposition to election event contracts. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces Tucker Carlson segment 2:02: Behnam's announcement on event contracts rulemaking 11:36: Tucker Carlson segment begins 11:48: Fred Norris recaps bet with Zoltar 19:30: Fox...
info_outline
Kalshi v. CFTC: Update and Legal Issues
Star Spangled Gamblers
Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss why the courts are allowing Kalshi to offer election markets for now, and provide an update on the litigation between Kalshi and the CFTC. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction begins 0:20: 2024 elections and prediction markets 0:31: Victory for Polymarket 1:53: Kalshi legal case 7:09: Interview with Bransfield begins 7:28: Bransfield joins Coalition for Political Forecasting 8:06: District court case 10:37: Gaming 15:45: Jia Cobb's ruling 18:17: DC Circuit appeal 18:30: DC Circuit court judges 30:43: Perception of harm from election contracts 33:07:...
info_outline
Reporting on Election 2024 from the County Level
Star Spangled Gamblers
Epoch Times reporter John Haughey tells us what he's hearing from Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces John Haughey 3:00: SSG pre-election coverage 4:01: Manifold election party 6:52: Interview begins 7:39: Epoch Times 19:34: Haughey's interest in political betting 24:43: Data 31:16: Republican uniformity of message 38:28: Impressions from the ground 45:23: October surprises? 48:06: Montana Senate race Bet on the 2024 elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
info_outlinePolitical gambling legend 50Pence challenges Alex Chan for the SSG Title Belt on the question of who will win the Trump-Harris debate.
Chan and 50Pence also discuss which mention markets will hit on Polymarket and how many more Trump-Harris debates there will be before the election.
Timestamps
3:49: Interview begins
4:38: How Chan won the Title Belt
6:54: 50Pence introduction
8:26: Title Belt bet
15:50: Favorable moderators for Trump
18:32: Counterparty risk
21:39: Debate rules
30:59: Harris's performance
57:13: Trump's weaknesses
1:02:11: Polymarket debate mention markets
1:08:03: Crypto/Bitcoin mentions
1:15:32: How many Trump-Harris debates?
1:18:47: Lottos on 3+ debates?
Show Notes
Bet on debate markets at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.
Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers