The Slow Bleed: Mortgage Rates, Rising Delinquencies, and a Technical Recession?
Release Date: 06/02/2026
Bank of Canada Holds, 42,000 Jobs Lost, Waterloo Housing Market Update
The Green Effect Podcast
The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate this week, and almost every headline stopped there. The more useful information was in the press conference, where the Bank said it is not ruling out an increase — because tariffs are inflationary and inflation has climbed to the top of their tolerance band. In this episode Stephen Green breaks down what the central bank actually signalled, why headline inflation of 3% and core inflation of 2.2% tell two different stories, and what a soft August jobs report means for Canadian housing this fall. In this episode: - The Bank of Canada held, but...
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Tariffs, Bond Yields and Your Canadian Mortgage — Market Update
The Green Effect Podcast
A 50% tariff is going in. Canada is matching it dollar for dollar as of September 8. And the bond market moved the same morning the news landed. In this episode Stephen Green connects the trade-war headlines to the number that actually shows up on your mortgage statement. IN THIS EPISODE: • The 50% tariff, where the negotiation broke down, and Canada's dollar-for-dollar response • Why the provinces are willing to play ball — but only within reason • Bond yields dropped, and why fixed mortgage pricing follows the bond market • Monoline lenders repriced last week, the big...
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Jobs Report Doubts, Bond Yields and Canada's Coming Housing Squeeze - S6E17
The Green Effect Podcast
Ontario's unemployment rate dropped to a two-year low — and Stephen Green isn't convinced. In this episode of The Green Effect Podcast, Stephen walks through the four forces moving the Canadian mortgage and housing market right now, and what each one means for you if you're buying, renewing, or waiting. In this episode: • Ontario added 52,000 jobs, Canada added 75,100, and unemployment fell to roughly 6.4% — Stephen explains why a workforce survey may not match what's happening on the ground • Why unemployment is the key number that drives spending, hiring and the entire economic...
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S6 E16: Fixed Rates Tick Up, 50% Tariffs & My Canadian Housing Bottom Call
The Green Effect Podcast
Fixed mortgage rates moved up this week — not by much, but enough to notice. In this episode, Waterloo mortgage broker Stephen Green traces the line from a trade dispute, to the bond market, to your mortgage payment, and then looks forward at where this market actually goes from here. IN THIS EPISODE: • Proposed 50% US tariffs on autos, dairy and alcohol — and whether CUSMA blocks them • The bond yield connection: why fixed rates followed, and by roughly how much • Bank of Canada's hold, June inflation, and what the next print could look like • Unemployment near 6.5% and why it's...
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Don't Sign That Renewal — Jobs, Housing & Bank of Canada Rates - S6E15
The Green Effect Podcast
Your bank just mailed you a mortgage renewal letter — and signing it without advice could cost you thousands. This week, Waterloo mortgage broker Stephen Green explains why banks are pushing borrowers to sign on the dotted line with no guidance, and what to do instead. He also digs into the numbers shaping the Canadian market right now. On this episode: Behind the June jobs report — seasonal youth hiring vs. 17,000 lost manufacturing jobs The housing market shift: 4 months of inventory and room to negotiate again Why RBC Economics says affordability is the best it's been in years What the...
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New Build HST Rebate, Short-Term Rental Tax Traps & Variable Rate Warnings (Canada 2026) | The Green Effect Podcast S6E14
The Green Effect Podcast
Chasing the HST rebate on a new-build home? Before you switch from resale to new construction, this episode walks Canadian homebuyers through the real risks. Mortgage broker Stephen Green covers the new-build HST rebate confusion nobody can answer yet, a short-term-rental HST trap that can cost second-home buyers thousands, and a mortgage renewal warning every homeowner should hear before their maturity date. Then it's a full Canadian mortgage market update: why variable rates are popular again (and why they are NOT set-and-forget), where fixed rates and bond yields are heading, the balanced...
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Bank of Canada Holds Rates: What It Means for Canadian Mortgages | Appraisal Shocks, the Slow Bleed & Claude AI Rabbit Hole (S6E13)
The Green Effect Podcast
⭐ Enjoying The Green Effect Podcast? Follow the show and leave a 5-star rating — it takes 10 seconds and helps other Canadians find honest mortgage talk. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25%, but Canadian mortgage broker Stephen Green says the real story is what the Bank actually said, not the number. In this episode he breaks down the June 2026 Bank of Canada decision and what it means for Canadian mortgage rates and your renewal, why refinance appraisals are coming in way off, where fixed and variable rates sit today, and why he thinks Southwestern Ontario's economy is in...
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The Slow Bleed: Mortgage Rates, Rising Delinquencies, and a Technical Recession?
The Green Effect Podcast
The Green Effect | Season 6, Episode 12 We are back with a jam-packed episode of The Green Effect, and Stephen is pulling absolutely no punches today. From chaotic wine country weddings and frustrating credit card fraud to deep-diving into whether we are in a "real" recession or just a half-assed make-believe one, we are covering it all. First up, Stephen shares a crucial warning on the rise of financial fraud. Learn the exact pattern scammers use to test your cards, why you need to stop texting or emailing your sensitive documents immediately, and the credit-monitoring tools that won't wreck...
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Spring Market Surge | Bond Yield Blues | Navigating the Middle Class Squeeze
The Green Effect Podcast
The Green Effect | Season 6, Episode 11: Spring Market Surge, Bond Yield Blues, and Navigating the Middle Class Squeeze Fresh off a humid trip to Mexico, Stephen Green is back in the studio late on a Sunday night (coffee in hand!) to break down a week of massive, moving targets in the Canadian economic landscape. From a sudden explosion in local real estate activity to the sobering reality behind rising insolvency numbers, this episode cuts through the media noise to give you the raw, unfiltered truth about your money, your mortgage, and the market. If you're feeling the pinch of everyday life...
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Bank of Canada Hold | Market Fragility | Why Rates Aren’t Everything
The Green Effect Podcast
"Life is stupid expensive." In Season 6, Episode 10 of The Green Effect, Stephen Green cuts through the noise of the latest Bank of Canada meeting and the quarterly monetary report to explain what’s actually happening on the ground for Canadian homeowners and investors. We’re in a market defined by "fragility," and if you aren't prepared for the hidden costs of real estate, you’re flying blind. Stephen dives into the "supply and demand" story that no one is telling—from the massive glutton of rental inventory hitting the market to the plummeting numbers of single-family building...
info_outlineThe Green Effect | Season 6, Episode 12
We are back with a jam-packed episode of The Green Effect, and Stephen is pulling absolutely no punches today. From chaotic wine country weddings and frustrating credit card fraud to deep-diving into whether we are in a "real" recession or just a half-assed make-believe one, we are covering it all.
First up, Stephen shares a crucial warning on the rise of financial fraud. Learn the exact pattern scammers use to test your cards, why you need to stop texting or emailing your sensitive documents immediately, and the credit-monitoring tools that won't wreck your score.
Then, we unpack the mess that is the current Canadian market. What are the actual odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike? Stephen breaks down the numbers, looks at the rising household debt domino effect, and turns to Gemini AI to explain what a "technical recession" actually means for your wallet. Plus, we take a hard, honest look at the economic reality hitting Southwestern Ontario—from the tech sector layoffs in Kitchener-Waterloo to the automotive slowdown in Windsor.
Finally, we talk politics, policy, and property. With the CUSMA trade agreement looming, who is the best "poison" to get Canada out of this economic mess? And if you're a first-time homebuyer or looking to upgrade, Stephen shares the number one strategic mistake sellers are making in today's conditional-offer market.
In this episode, we discuss:
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How to easily dispute credit card fraud (and why scammers start small)
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Why mortgage brokers and clients need to stop emailing documents
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The domino effect: Household debt, delinquencies, and power of sales
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What Gemini AI says about the 0.1% GDP drop and economic panic buttons
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The economic "hot mess" across KW, London, Brampton, and Windsor
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Mark Carney vs. Pierre Poilievre: Stripping away the party lines for economic recovery
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Real estate reality check: Why buying before selling is getting people into trouble
Connect with Stephen:
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Leave us a 5-star review on your favorite podcatcher!
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