S6 E16: Fixed Rates Tick Up, 50% Tariffs & My Canadian Housing Bottom Call

Fixed mortgage rates moved up this week — not by much, but enough to notice. In this episode, Waterloo mortgage broker Stephen Green traces the line from a trade dispute, to the bond market, to your mortgage payment, and then looks forward at where this market actually goes from here.

IN THIS EPISODE:
• Proposed 50% US tariffs on autos, dairy and alcohol — and whether CUSMA blocks them
• The bond yield connection: why fixed rates followed, and by roughly how much
• Bank of Canada's hold, June inflation, and what the next print could look like
• Unemployment near 6.5% and why it's the number that matters most right now
• CREA's lowered national forecast — with Ontario as the one bright spot
• Waterloo Region: average price down 6.4%, sales down 2.9%, Cambridge sales up 15.2%
• Single-family building permits near zero while rentals flood the supply pipeline
• Stephen's mid-2027 bottom call and why he doesn't believe a crash is coming
• First-time buyers: strong inventory, best affordability in years, and why your offer stands out
• The strategy conversation to have before you buy with a home still to sell
• Current fixed and variable rate landscape
• Gifted down payments now appearing on more than half of first-time buyer files
• Public service announcement: do not auto-sign your bank renewal letter

KEY TAKEAWAYS:
1. Fixed rates follow bond yields — trade news reaches your mortgage faster than most people realize.
2. Employment is the foundation. Watch the unemployment rate more closely than the rate announcements.
3. Gradual and bumpy beats a boom. Smaller peaks and valleys are a healthier market than 2021 was.
4. If you're renewing, a letter from your bank is a starting point — not an offer you have to accept.

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WATCH & LISTEN:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZwLHIk2V8EIkDeRVx4EjwA
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-green-effect-podcast/id1434969273
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6iKdA4EY2crIuYymE9SZd9

Questions about your renewal, purchase or refinance? Email [e-mail] or call 519-500-1789.

Stephen Green, Mortgage Broker — The Financial Collective | Better Mortgage Choice, FSRA Lic. #13496. General information only, not financial advice.