Vanguard’s Return Forecasts Explained: What the Percentiles Really Mean with Kevin DiCiurcio (EP.241)
The Long Term Investor
You don’t have time to sift through endless financial content. That’s why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. . ----- In this episode, Peter sits down with Vanguard’s Kevin DiCiurcio to unpack how Vanguard thinks about long-term return forecasts—and why the percentiles in those tables are the part most investors misunderstand. They go behind the scenes of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM), and translate what it’s really saying into practical guidance for planning and portfolio decisions. Listen now and learn: ...
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Inside the Engine: The Assumptions Behind Your Monte Carlo Retirement Plan (EP.240)
The Long Term Investor
You don’t have time to sift through endless financial content. That’s why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. . ----- Ever wondered where your retirement plan’s “probability of success” really comes from? In this episode, Peter pulls back the curtain on the assumptions inside Monte Carlo analysis—and explains why Plancorp anchors its projections to long-term base rates instead of short-term forecasts. Listen now and learn: ► The three numbers that quietly drive most Monte Carlo projections ► The four common...
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The 2026 Market Outlook: Earnings, the Fed, the Magnificent Seven, and Long-Term Investing with Liz Ann Sonders (EP.239)
The Long Term Investor
Get an inside look at what’s shaping my thinking. Bi-weekly, I share the top 5 investing and financial planning articles I’m reading—straight to your inbox. . ----- Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins me for a wide-ranging conversation about what actually matters for long-term investors heading into 2026. We get past the headline forecasts and into how a seasoned strategist interprets markets in real time—without falling into the traps that trip up most investors. Listen now and learn: ► Why “forecasts” can be useful even when you’re not...
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Talking Shop with Rubin Miller (EP.238)
The Long Term Investor
You don’t have time to sift through endless financial content. That’s why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. . ----- In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Rubin Miller for an unscripted conversation about why market forecasts fail, how advisors actually set return assumptions, and where investors most often misunderstand risk. We move freely from prediction season and capital market assumptions to investor behavior, bonds, and cash—focusing less on what markets will do next and more on how to build a plan you can...
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Talking Shop with Ashby Daniels (EP.237)
The Long Term Investor
You don’t have time to sift through endless financial content. That’s why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. . ----- In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Ashby Daniels for an unscripted, behind-the-scenes conversation about investing, markets, and the behavioral mistakes that quietly derail long-term results. We move freely—from why simplicity keeps winning, to how investors misread risk, to what actually matters when markets feel noisy—without a single hot take in sight. If you’ve ever wondered how two...
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How to Choose Your Stock/Bond Mix (and Stick With It When Markets Get Ugly) (EP.236)
The Long Term Investor
Get updates for my new book: ----- Most people think “risk” means volatility. In this episode, I define risk the way long-term investors actually experience it: the risk of failing to fund your life. Then we turn that definition into a practical plan–choosing a stock/bond mix you can live with, deciding what goes in each sleeve, and rebalancing with rules instead of gut feel. Listen now and learn: ► A clearer way to think about risk before you pick an allocation ► The two-part test that determines your stock/bond mix ► How cash fits (and where it doesn’t) when...
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Why Your Bond Questions Are Really About Cash (EP.235)
The Long Term Investor
Get updates for my new book: ----- Bond ladders, bond funds, money markets—if those words have you second‑guessing your plan, this episode will clear the fog. Inspired by questions from my Perfect Portfolio book‑updates list, I explain why many “bond” debates are actually cash management problems in disguise—and how to build a simple system that helps you stay disciplined when markets get ugly. Listen now and learn: ► How to tell—quickly—whether you’re making a portfolio decision or a cash decision ► The “comfort trade” most investors accept with bond...
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Index vs Factor Investing (EP.234)
The Long Term Investor
Get updates for my new book: ----- Index funds are often pitched as the no-brainer choice for long-term investors—but are they the only rules worth following? In this episode, I use one of my favorite analogies to explain how indexing and factor investing evolved, how they differ, and how to decide which mix fits your goals and behavior. Listen now and learn: ► Why indexing became the “radar gun” of investing—and what it actually guarantees you ► The key trade-offs baked into market-cap-weighted index funds that most investors never think about ► What “factors”...
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What Is The Market Portfolio—And How Should It Influence How We Invest? (EP.233)
The Long Term Investor
You don’t have time to sift through endless financial content. That’s why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. . ----- Most of us feel like we “own the market” with a U.S. stock index and a core bond fund. But the real global market portfolio — the value of every investable asset in the world — looks very different. And once you see that full picture, it changes how you think about international stocks, alternatives, and how far you may be drifting from the true market mix. In this episode, I break down what the world...
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The Latest Innovation in ETFs and Mutual Funds: Share Class Exemptive Relief, Explained — with Marlena Lee (EP.232)
The Long Term Investor
You don’t have time to sift through endless financial content. That’s why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. . ----- Dimensional Fund Advisors’ Marlena Lee joins Peter to unpack the SEC’s share class exemptive relief—the change that lets one portfolio be offered as both a mutual fund and an ETF. Listen now and learn: ► Why one portfolio offered as both an ETF and a mutual fund is a game changer for investors ► How the cash-vs-basket plumbing drives taxes and who ends up with capital gains distributions...
info_outlineGet updates for my new book: https://Theperfectportfoliobook.com
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Index funds are often pitched as the no-brainer choice for long-term investors—but are they the only rules worth following? In this episode, I use one of my favorite analogies to explain how indexing and factor investing evolved, how they differ, and how to decide which mix fits your goals and behavior.
Listen now and learn:
► Why indexing became the “radar gun” of investing—and what it actually guarantees you
► The key trade-offs baked into market-cap-weighted index funds that most investors never think about
► What “factors” like value, size, profitability, and momentum really are (in plain English)
► A simple framework to know whether you should stick with plain indexing or consider adding factor tilts
Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.
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